Scarce Opportunities
An interesting quarterfinal match on tap between Russia and Croatia as we continue our analysis of World Cup using Google Cloud. Croatia is looking to match their best World Cup showing since 1998, when they advanced to the semifinals. Russia hasn’t advanced to the semifinals since 1966, when they were still known as the Soviet Union.
This is only the fourth time these countries have met (Croatia gaining independence as a country in 1991). The brief history includes a pair of scoreless draws during Euro qualifiers in 2008 and a 3–1 Croatia win during a friendly in 2015. Croatia has been strong during the latter stages of matches, notching 10 of their last 12 World Cup goals after halftime.
Out of all the quarterfinal squads, Croatia and Russia have taken the fewest amount of shots and have conceded the fewest amount of goals. In fact, Russia has managed just two shots on target in their last two matches — one of which came via penalty kick.
Both squads are coming off dramatic wins stemming from a shootout — although Croatia really struggled as a favorite while host country Russia notched a win for the ages as a massive underdog. Croatia slogged through a 1–1 match with Denmark before winning on penalty kicks. Russia notched arguably their biggest win ever by eliminating Spain on penalty kicks after a 1–1 score.
Not to take away from the goalkeeping heroics of Igor Akinfeev and Danijel Subašić in their respective penalty shootouts, but there’s an element of luck around advancing in a penalty shootout and the case could be made that these have been two of the luckiest teams in the tournament. Credit the finishing of Artem Dzyuba, Denis Cheryshev, Aleksandr Golovin and Yuri Gazinsky, but Russia’s eight goals have come on just 4.99 xG; 3.01 goals minus xG is highest in the tournament and 0.75 above the next team. From the defensive perspective, Russia have conceded only three times on 5.38 xG conceded, -2.38 goals conceded minus xG conceded is 7th in this World Cup, one of the six teams ahead of them on that list though is Croatia.
Zlatko Dalić’s side have only conceded twice in the tournament, but they have conceded 5.11 xG. Croatia’s -3.11 goals conceded minus xG conceded is 3rd lowest in the tournament. A difference this large comes down to one of three things; a defense blocking a lot of shots, a goalkeeper saving a lot of shots, or suspect finishing. For example Sweden who also nears the top of this list is leading the tournament in shots blocked. Mexico, Denmark and South Korea are at or near the top of this list and have goalkeepers at or near the top of the saves leaderboard. Meanwhile, Subašić has only made seven saves thus far and Croatia’s 3.3 shots blocked per game is tied for 11th, pointing towards the latter explanation.
This puts an interesting spin on this matchup; one team has failed to create many chances, but has been elite finishing them, while the other side seems to have been the beneficiary of some subpar finishing from their opponents.
From a player availability standpoint, Croatia is fully fit and does not have any players suspended. Russia is nearly at full strength as well — with the exception of left wing Yuri Zhirkov — who will likely miss the match with a tendon injury in his calf.
Predictions
While they’re certainly given a better chance than against Spain, even with the home field advantage, Russia are still the underdogs. Our model gives Croatia a 59.6% (1.61 xG) chance to advance, while the host nation has a 40.4% (0.81 xG) chance.
Google Search gives extra time more of a chance than Russia outright
Bing likes Croatia but still gives Russia a puncher’s chance
538 leans a bit more heavy on Croatia
