Apple Can No Longer Launch Groundbreaking Products
But they still build them
Apple can no longer launch groundbreaking new products like the first iPhone.
Not because they lack the vision or capacity. They will still BUILD groundbreaking new products over time. But they will not be launched as magical, vastly transformative new products the way the first iPhone, or Apple computer was.
This is because of the rapid release cycle that all the device manufacturers are all locked into.
Apple worked on the iPhone for 6 years before unveiling it to the public.
They worked on it in complete secrecy, at a time when the next best thing was the palm pilot, which was seeing very slow improvements over time.
So in other words, they had little pressure to release it ASAP, they could take the time to experiment on new ideas and make many huge improvements on all aspects of the device.
Think about it, the first iPhone was built on huge improvements in:
- Touch screen technology
- Full color, high res LCD screens
- High strength glass
- Processor size
- Battery performance
- Manufacturing capacity
- And much more
It took Apple over 6 years to create the innovations in all the parts of the iPhone, and the result was a device that was light years ahead of anything else on the market.
But while the consumer saw this massive shift from Palm Pilot to iPhone, Apple saw many years of internal iterations on the Apple Newton. This process was probably a lot more incremental, similar to the current yearly release cycle of smart phones.
Now Apple (and everyone else) is locked into a fast moving innovation battle. They HAVE to keep releasing something better every year, or else Samsung, or Google, or Xiaomi will get far enough ahead to steal away market share, making them weak.
So if it takes you ~6 years to make a groundbreaking new product, but you have to release every year, what happens?
Your groundbreaking vision turns into incremental improvements.
Those internal iterations go to production before they can become something light years ahead of the current tech.
To consumers, this makes the product innovation process seem less magical.
Instead of one big launch with tons of massive improvements, you get 6 small launches with underwhelming and predictable improvements.
iPhone 7
If you ignore the iterations between the first iPhone and now, and look at this on the longer timeline required to build groundbreaking new products, this iteration of the iPhone is a clearly a groundbreaking jump ahead of the original iPhone, and seemingly marks the finishing perfection of the original iPhone vision.
It also hints at prototypes of a new product vision.
Artificial Reality.
The cameras, especially on the 7 Plus are setting the stage for the AR/VR future which is right around the corner.
Ben Thompson of Stratechery pointed out that the dual camera is actually the “first mass-market virtual reality camera.”
Within the next 2 years, users will regularly be consuming and creating VR and AR content right from their iPhone.
It is not hard to imagine that in 8 years, iPhones will be able to generate holograms, or be fully transparent, enabling excellent AR experiences.
Making Room For The Future
Removing the headphone jack is a necessary step forward to realizing those futures.
The headphone jack is a large and outdated piece of hardware, probably the least advanced part of the entire device.
The bandwidth is much lower than Thunderbolt, while the space it takes up in the phone is much larger.
Take a look at the bezel below the screen, ever notice that it is nearly the exact height of the headphone jack? This is not a coincidence as no one has been able to put a headphone jack behind a screen, it’s just too large.
You know what DOES fit behind a screen? SIM card, phone processor, battery, and now even the iPhone home “button”.
So this means more space for newer, denser tech, like advanced camera chips, more memory, and larger battery. It also allows them to expand the screen over the bezel, now that they have eliminated the physical home button.
Sure they could wait for another time to reduce it, but the timing is actually excellent for Apple.
Artificial Intelligence.
By removing the headphone jack, they are getting a lot of media attention, which they are expertly funneling towards their new product, the AirPods.
This allows them to gain attention for the AirPods without having sell the public on their real vision for the product, before it is fully ready.
AirPods
In a landscape where high tech is pressured to release early and release often, how does this change the release timing of brand new products?
It means that instead of incubating new tech until it is an order of magnitude better than what currently exists, the first generation needs to be released when it is closer to the prototype stage.
At first glance, the AirPods seem like an incrementally better, luxury wireless headphone, but there are two components that hint it is actually an early prototype of a larger vision.
- Computer Chip. There is a freaking computer chip in the device. Right now the chip is powering some of the advanced headset features. In the future, it is not hard to imagine that more and more iPhone components make their way into the AirPod device, rendering the iPhone obsolete.
- Microphone. As Chris Saad noticed, there is a very advanced microphone in the device, which makes it far more than a convenient way to listen to music, it allows you to talk directly to Siri. It has the potential to become the primary interface for the voice computing revolution. Like the movie Her (2013).
Releasing AirPods Early
Apple does get some advantages by releasing their prototype early.
The wear-on-your-face computing space has been plagued by the social stigma attached to them.
Everyone hates that guy with the big bulky bluetooth headset loudly talking about his dinner plans on the subway.
Google Glass got a lot of hate over privacy concerns, and the lack of sexyness.
It takes a long time to change consumer behavior, but will be necessary for the change to happen in order for the voice computing revolution to take place.
If anyone can do it, it’s Apple. Chris Messina wrote an excellent article pointing out that “Apple is a fashion brand that makes jewelry that connects to the internet.” Go read it next.
By releasing it as an advanced headphone with Siri access, they get to start building the user habit of using wireless earbuds, mostly just for listening to music, and maybe get a little used to talking to it.
When people see you wearing it, they won’t assume you are recording them, they will assume you are listening to music.
If you talk to it, they will think you are on the phone.
It is mostly innocuous, and it has the added benefit of signalling that you are, in fact, an Apple user, so you must be somewhat cool.
By downplaying its future role as a fully fledged ear computer, they are lessening the potential stigma risks, keeping expectations low, and building the base user habit which will take many years to change.
Hating on Apple seems to be the hip thing to do right now, but I think it is mostly because of the perceived lack of innovation due to the rapid release cycle.
Sometimes we wonder what happened to the future we were promised, without even realizing that its evolving right in front of us.
