What you need to know about Iran’s upcoming presidential elections
Iranians are heading to the polls on May 19 to elect a president. Here’s what you need to know about the election, based on conversations with several Iran experts over the last days.
Who is running for president?
Each candidate needs to be approved by Iran’s Guardian Council. Last week, the Council announced six candidates: Incumbent Hassan Rouhani; his vice president Eshaq Jahangiri; Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current mayor of Tehran; Ebrahim Raisi, a former attorney-general; as well as Mostafa Hashemitaba and Mostafa Mir-Salim, both of which are unlikely to play a decisive role. “This is more or less the field that we’ve expected”, says Sanam Vakil, an Associate Fellow at the Chatham House.
What about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?
The former president surprised Iran analysts by submitting his candidacy, but nobody — probably including Ahmadinejad himself — expected the Guardian Council to approve him after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had publicly advised him not to run. “It’s possible that he did this just to build political capital”, says Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group in Washington. “Being seen as anti-establishment could increase his popularity. He may just invest in his future.”
What do the candidates stand for?
President Rouhani and his vice-president Jahangiri are both considered moderates. Rouhani’s big achievement from his first term is the controversial Nuclear Deal (more on that below). Ghalibaf and Raisi both belong to the conservative camp, though there are significant differences. “It’s not surprising that the conservatives were unable to rally around a single candidate”, says Ali Vaez. Raisi is also considered to be one of the top candidates to eventually succeed Ayatollah Khamenei as the Supreme Leader. However, he is not well-known, and has little track record. It’s widely believed that Jahangiri will drop out of the race in a few weeks and endorse Rouhani. The two conservative candidates may also eventually join forces, but it’s less clear if that will happen. (UPDATE MAY 15, 2017: It just happened.)
Is there a front-runner?
Iranian elections are famously unpredictable. If it’s a three-way race (with Jahangiri dropping out), Rouhani is the favorite, but not by a big margin. Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez gives him a 55% chance of winning. And Hossein Rassam, a London-based analyst, points out that the electorate has become more politically fluid. “People’s main concerns are economic, and they may vote not for the candidate they agree with politically, but the one they feel can create most jobs and growth.” Rassam also says that Rouhani isn’t necessarily a bad choice for Ayatollah Khamenei’s hardliners: “He can be their punchbag for internal failures, but continue to pave the way for engagement with the world.”
Wasn’t the Nuclear Deal supposed to bring back growth and jobs?
Yes, that was Rouhani’s promise. And while there has been some economic recovery, its effects have been limited so far. A recent poll conducted by a Canadian firm found that 72% of Iranians feel their lives have not improved as a result of the deal — something that could hurt Rouhani. But Ali Vaez argues that while Iranians would like to see more growth, they still support the Nuclear Deal in general: “They know that the alternative would be more sanctions, which won’t help the economy.”
If Raisi really is slated to become the next Supreme Leader: Isn’t it a risk if he runs and then loses?
According to Ali Vaez, Raisi does fit the profile for a successor of Khamenei in several ways: He was a student of Khamenei, and he is also from Mashad. “Most importantly: He doesn’t have a network and a constituency yet. This would ensure the office of the current Supreme Leader to continue to exert influence in a transition period.” A humiliating defeat in the polls might indeed hurt Raisi. But the presidential race is also a good chance for him to raise his profile, says Sanam Vakil: “Many Iranians don’t know who he is.”
For more on Iran, read the highlights of our recent “Iran Salon” in Zurich, and an earlier interview with Ali Vaez on the future of the Nuclear Deal under President Trump.
