Dream Seeding the Western Conference
When the Western Conference playoffs begin in a month, the Houston Rockets will be the third seed. And that’s all we know. Everything else is as up in the air as the pizzas that float down on parachutes at Detroit Pistons home games.
11 teams are still alive out West, with another two — New Orleans and Sacramento — only a winning streak away from entering the discussion. The Spurs and Warriors have identical records at the top of the conference, nine wins ahead of anyone from the East. And the compelling matchup last night between the Jazz and the Clippers felt like the beginning of a month’s worth of teams jockeying for their positions.
No matter how the standings play out, the Western Conference Playoffs will be highly compelling. The West has six of the league’s seven superstars, a cavalcade of second-tier stars, and seven teams solidly above .500. There are four teams in the league with legitimate title aspirations, and the West is home to three of them. It’s going to be a fun ride either way, but as long as we’re dreaming, let’s consider what route would be most fun.
#1 vs. #8
Contenders for the 1-seed: Warriors, Spurs
Contenders for the 8-seed: Nuggets, Blazers, Timberwolves, Mavericks
Dream matchup: Spurs vs. Mavericks
Basketball is often called poetry, but usually people are referring to the aesthetic of the sport. The Spurs landing the top seed out West, however, would be complete poetic justice.
Consider this: No coach in NBA history has ever cared less about narratives and home court advantage than Gregg Popovich. Poetry. Then consider this: while the 73-win Warriors were out landing Kevin Durant, the Spurs were re-upping with 36-year old Pau Gasol, 33-year old David Lee, and Dewayne Dedmon. Poetry.
Entering the season, the Spurs had won 50 or more games in 17 consecutive years, had the greatest coach in NBA history, were built around a 24-year old on the verge of superstardom, and were coming off one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history. Yet the narrative somehow painted the Spurs as old, tired, and finally giving in to their long-delayed fall from grace.
Poetry.
As far as the 8-seed is concerned, the Timberwolves are the obvious choice here: they’re young and exciting, have one of the league’s most jaw-dropping young talents, and always play with youthful exuberance. It’s hard to deny them a spot. Unfortunately, a Wolves-Spurs matchup would almost surely be depressing. None of the four contenders for the final spot will win more than one game against the Spurs or the Warriors, but the Wolves would be crushed harder than a Natty Light can at a frat party. For all their talent, Minnesota doesn’t have the discipline or experience to hang with the Spurs on a game to game basis. Watching the young, promising Wolves make the playoffs would be fun. Watching them get annihilated once they’re there would be depressing.
Dallas has the tools to make the series interesting. Rick Carlisle is one of the leagues five best coaches, and coaching matters more in the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki and Harrison Barnes have extensive playoff experience (insert Barnes NBA Finals joke here), and the elite rim and PNR protection that Nerlens Noel offers is a valuable postseason weapon. To top it off, the Mavs starting lineup of Dirk, Barnes, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, and Yogi Ferrell offers enough competent three-point shooting that variance can do its thing and keep Dallas in every game.
The 8-seed doesn’t stand a chance. But Dallas can at least challenge San Antonio in a way that would make the games worth tuning into.
#2 vs. #7
Contenders for the 2-seed: Spurs, Warriors
Contenders for the 7-seed: Clippers, Thunder, Grizzlies
Dream matchup: Warriors vs. Thunder
Does this one really need explanation?
Warriors-Thunder is as good of a 2–7 matchup as exists. There’s narratives and rivalries, superstars and highlights, history and dirty plays galore. Russell Westbrook is so pissed off about Kevin Durant leaving that he decided to mess around and average a triple double; imagine what he’d do with a whole series against Durant’s new team?
The current estimation is that Durant will return for the first round, which means he’ll be working his way into game shape and getting acclimated with his teammates during this series. Translation: Russ will smell blood in the water, and we’ll get to see another level to his pissed-off greatness, if such a thing is even possible.
Even if Durant is shelved until round two, the storylines abound. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson may be lightyears ahead of Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams, but the narrative will still be the battle of two elite point guards trying to lead their supporting casts. Westbrook will feel compelled to prove that he’s better than his two-time reigning MVP counterpart, while Steph Curry will be trying to remind everyone that other-worldly stat lines don’t always correlate with winning.
The desire for the Warriors to end up with the 2-seed extends beyond a compelling matchup with the Thunder. Ever since it became apparent that the Rockets are really good this year, NBA fans have been drooling over a potential Warriors-Rockets playoff series, complete with 90 three-point attempts a game and 300 combined points. But fans have also been clamoring for a matchup with the Spurs, who have managed to fall out of the playoffs before meeting Golden State in each of the Warriors’ recent runs to the NBA Finals.
A perfect NBA postseason means having the Warriors battle both top challengers from Texas. That only happens if they fall to the 2-seed, which is looking more and more likely every day.
#3 vs. #6
Contenders for the 3-seed: Rockets
Contenders for the 6-seed: Clippers, Thunder, Grizzlies
Dream matchup: Rockets vs. Clippers
Every great meal is preceded by a great appetizer. And what first course could better prepare us for the offensive explosion of Rockets-Warriors in the second round, than Rockets-Clippers in the first?
If you like elite point guards running pick-and-rolls for two and a half hours, then Happy Birthday, this series is for you. James Harden is one of the most creative players in the league in the PNR and faux-PNR:
Meanwhile, Chris Paul runs a traditional PNR as well as any player in NBA history:
The Rockets and Clippers rank first and fourth in the league, respectively, in defending the ball handler in PNR situations, per NBA.com, which butts heads with the fact that their respective point guards are both dynamic scorers. Both teams struggle to contain the roll man, with the Clippers landing 12th in the league, and the Rockets allowing a league worst 1.16 points per possession in such scenarios. Houston is obviously the better team in this matchup, so Paul being able to constantly find Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan in these situations may be the key to Los Angeles keeping the series competitive. It will be fascinating to see if Mike D’Antoni goes small to try and force Jordan off the floor, and whether Doc Rivers counters with a smaller lineup, or keeps his All-Star big man in the game at the expense of taking a hit defensively (Jordan trying to guard Ryan Anderson is D’Antoni’s dream scenario).
And should the Rockets get upset, we get the treat of a Clippers-Warriors matchup as a consolation prize.
#4 vs. #5
Contenders for the 4-seed: Jazz, Clippers
Contenders for the 5-seed: Jazz, Clippers, Thunder, Grizzlies
Dream matchup: Jazz vs. Grizzlies
There’s an odd dichotomy with 4–5 matchups. On the one hand, it should be the most closely contested series in the first round; on the other hand, neither team matters all that much. This series epitomizes that, but more for good than for bad. Neither the Jazz nor the Grizzlies have realistic title aspirations, and either team reaching the Conference Finals would be a huge shock.
But if you forget about things that only impact the championship landscape, Utah-Memphis is a fascinating and terrific basketball matchup between two very good teams. The Jazz and the Grizz are the third and sixth-best defensive teams in the league, respectively, so don’t tune in if you don’t enjoy the immaculate timing of bigs showing and retreating, wings rotating effortlessly, and players moving backwards more quickly than you or I can move forwards. If you do enjoy those things, then this one is for you.
While Utah is clearly the better team this year, they also have the biggest question to answer in the series: how do they guard Marc Gasol? Rudy Gobert is one of the two greatest defensive players in the league this year, but much of that value comes from his ability to control the paint, help out on cutters, and protect the rim. Gasol has extended his game this year to 23’9”, averaging 3.6 three point attempts per game, and spending much of his time between the elbow and the arc. Quin Snyder has proved himself to be one of the game’s great coaches, so it will be fascinating to see how he approaches this conundrum.
One thing’s for sure: these teams may not be in the running for a championship, but they won’t be a fun matchup for whoever faces the winner.
