Breaking Down a Key Offseason for the L.A. Lakers and Miami Heat
The two teams who outlasted their competition in the NBA Bubble seemingly suffered for their past success. This offseason, they have a chance to return to their winning ways
Editor’s Note: This is Part 2 of a two-part series on the Lakers and Heat. Find Part One, a recap of the two teams’ demise in the 2020–2021 season after making the NBA Finals, here.
PERHAPS THE BEST way to describe the past season for the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat is a tax. It was a “tax” because, in exchange for outperforming the rest of the NBA, the Lakers and Heat were hit with a storm of injuries, mental fatigue, and the shortest offseason in league history.
It is no coincidence that, with Nikola Jokic’s Nuggets bowing out in four games against the Suns, every team that made it to the Conference Finals in 2020 struggled with injuries and failed to live up to expectations this season.
However, as detailed in a previous article, there isn’t significant upside to just “running it back” (meaning bringing back the same roster for another season).
Miami cannot re-up all of their players from this season because doing so would ignore the reality that having Jimmy Butler, merely a borderline superstar, attempt to knock off the elite teams in the East is not a wise or sustainable strategy. Furthermore, this season was Miami’s attempt to run it back: they did not trade young pieces like Tyler Herro, and they brought back nearly the same team that made the NBA Finals, excluding Jae Crowder.
Meanwhile, L.A. should not simply resort to “running it back” this offseason, because, while it is true that injuries decimated their title hopes in 2021, their roster also had serious flaws that were masked by a 36 year-old LeBron James playing at an MVP level before his ankle injury.
So, with free agency, potential trades, and other key decisions coming soon, this offseason will be incredibly important to the Heat and Lakers returning to title contention in the near future.
The first key to these two teams’ offseasons has to be free agency.
L.A., with only LeBron, Anthony Davis, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Kyle Kuzma on their salary sheet, are nearly at the salary cap limit. They will have to choose who to resign out of fringe, end of the rotation veterans, like Markieff Morris and Wesley Matthews, as well as starters like Dennis Schröder and Andre Drummond.
Schröder’s situation is the most interesting. He seemingly committed to resigning with L.A. during the season, stating his desire to stay with the team long-term multiple times, but he also refused to sign an extension — even when L.A. offered a 4-year, $84 million max extension.
In the playoffs, Schröder was good at times, but struggled mightily throughout entire games. That reality lowers his market value around the NBA, which, for the Lakers, who have no means to replace the German point guard (due to their salary cap situation), is a good thing.
L.A., by my estimation, should keep Schröder; most sign-and-trade scenarios involving him seem unlikely and run the risk of hard-capping the Lakers (the hard-cap is a set cost which teams cannot exceed). Furthermore, he was effective in some scenarios: in March and April, without James and Davis, his shooting percentages, particularly from three-point range, increased, and he was the Lakers’ only chance at playing even .500 basketball without their two superstars. That success in a large, ball-dominant role signals that Schröder should probably return to his familiar sixth man role, though the tremendous early success of the Schröder/Caldwell-Pope/James/Davis/Gasol starting lineup may keep the point guard in a starting role.
Drummond, meanwhile, presents another conundrum. In signing him away from other playoff teams, L.A. was forced to hand over a starting role, significant minutes, and give promises of a long-term future to the 27 year old center. Yet, while Drummond has clear strengths, his skillset isn’t necessary on this Lakers team.
If the team is to be believed, then Drummond will be back. However, based on the Lakers’ cap situation, Drummond’s age (27), and the team’s lack of floor spacing, I’m dubious that he will be resigned — with the exception being the scenario in which Drummond resigns on a “prove it” type deal worth no more than the mid-level exception.
In terms of the team’s veteran free agents, almost all are expected to resign. Based both on market value and exit interviews, the team should have Markieff Morris, Wesley Matthews, and Jared Dudley back for another season, all of whom have a strong locker room presence with the team.
Lastly, team faces a dilemma with Alex Caruso and Talen Horton-Tucker, the team’s two best young pieces outside of Kyle Kuzma. Caruso’s on/off impact has been spelled out through two seasons’ worth of data, and his fit with LeBron James makes him nearly a lock to stay. Meanwhile, Horton-Tucker is a player with potential as a finisher, defender, and playmaker, but his youth and inexperience makes him unlikely to play heavy minutes in the postseason.
The Lakers will probably resign him — remember, he was the reported sticking point in a trade for Kyle Lowry — but only up to a certain price. L.A. will want to retain one of their most valuable assets, but they also cannot necessarily afford to sign a “poison-pill” contract that harms their long-term flexibility.
Miami also has no shortage of decisions to make this summer, with Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Victor Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Trevor Ariza, and Dewayne Dedmon all potentially being free agents.
Dragic’s situation is complicated because he is an aging, yet productive player who, in the regular season, is only worth an exception, but in the playoffs, is highly productive. His pridefulness and relationship with Jimmy Butler further complicate matters. In an ideal situation, he would resign on a much smaller contract, but his stature within the organization may land him another eight-figure contract.
Duncan Robinson, one of Miami’s greatest recent success stories, has developed into one of the league’s premier shooters; that could land him a contract similar to Joe Harris and Davis Bertans (between $15–$20 million annually). The Heat offer a large role on a team whose offense heavily features three-point shooters and masks his weaknesses; however, in pure monetary terms, the Heat are not Robinson’s top destination.
Assuming Tyler Herro bounces back from his sophomore shooting slump and returns to a more prominent off-ball role, he could reasonably mitigate the loss if retaining Robinson is too expensive.
Kendrick Nunn’s free agency situation is less complicated — the Heat will let the market dictate their moves. It’s fairly clear that, should a team offer a large enough contract, the Heat will let Nunn walk. Retaining him is a luxury in terms of giving the team another competent, consistent guard, but it’s not a necessity.
Trevor Ariza and Dewayne Dedmon were two midseason acquisitions who quickly proved to be contributors on the Heat. Miami would want to keep Ariza for his positional fit (read this article about why having a Jae Crowder-esque forward was so important). Meanwhile, Dedmon was a quality backup big who could competently guard some of the better centers in the Eastern Conference during the regular season. There is a strong chance one or both of Ariza and Dedmon return.
And finally, we arrive at the Victor Oladipo conundrum. Oladipo wanted to be a Heat player for some time, and yet, with his lengthy injury history, it is unclear if the team will want him back.
His skillset — at his best — is something the Heat need: a fast-paced, attacking guard who can create his own shot and run in transition. That’s why it made sense that the Heat gambled by trading for him at the deadline.
However, his injuries complicate everything, and if still wants a long-term deal, Miami would likely be better off reallocating their resources to Kyle Lowry (a friend of Butler) or other, more reliable guards.
If Oladipo returns to Miami, I predict he will do so on a one-year, cheap contract to try and enter 2022 free agency with a productive season under his belt.
The next key aspect of the Lakers and Heat’s offseasons involves their activity in trades. Miami might seek a trade because, at their peak, the ceiling of the 2020–2021 Heat (at full strength/health) was probably no higher than a Conference Finals appearance. Meanwhile, L.A.’s ceiling was a Finals appearance or victory, but that fact does not hide their lack of shooting and “3 & D” wings.
L.A. has a decision to make with Kyle Kuzma, the longest tenured player on the team whose role has varied drastically over the past three season. Kuzma was good for most of the regular season, as he improved as a shooter, defender, and playmaker, while being an okay tertiary scorer. However, he looked uncomfortable in that role in the postseason, which led to some truly awful offensive showings. Kuzma’s value may be slightly depreciated after the postseason, but his regular season performance boosted his overall value around the league.
If he needs to be a featured scorer, then his time in L.A is probably done: Los Angeles would be better off giving more offensive responsibility to Schröder and Horton-Tucker (assuming they are back). However, if the team uses his $13 million contract in a trade — assuming they aren’t trading for a star-level player — they must find a player who is definitively better as a shooter and defender from the forward position, because otherwise, they would be better off keeping Kuzma.
Outside of Kuzma, the other trade scenarios involve Dennis Schröder (either if he is involved in a sign-and-trade or traded after being resigned) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Between any two of Kuzma, Schröder, and Caldwell-Pope, L.A. will be trading roughly $26–32 million in salary — enough for another star player, though the Lakers’ assets are so depleted that finding a star whose value isn’t depreciating will be difficult.
Miami is another team to look out for on the trade market, as they have young talent (Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and potentially Nunn and/or Robinson) to dangle alongside the inflated contracts of Andre Iguodala and perhaps Goran Dragic.
Herro is still a strong asset, even if his value may never exceed what it was after the NBA Bubble, and Achiuwa is still a fringe lottery pick.
I think Miami could be involved in a trade, but because they positioned themselves to have cap space this offseason (in pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo before he signed the super-max), free agency is probably their preferred method of acquiring a star player.
While L.A.’s offseason is centered around their free agency and trade decisions because they’ve locked down their core pieces — James and Davis — for the foreseeable future, Miami’s offseason has one more critical element: an extension for Jimmy Butler.
Here’s the conundrum: Butler has been everything and more for Miami after signing two seasons ago. Yet, he also has injury concerns (past knee injuries, ankle problems, and a mysterious wrist issue) and a play-style that doesn’t lend itself to aging well. But, of course, not offering him an extension is an equally dangerous game, as a disrespected or upset Jimmy Butler is a turbulent force (look no further than Butler’s final seasons in Philadelphia, Chicago, and Minnesota).
Again, there is a scenario in which Butler and the Heat are amicable to a team-friendly deal, one that would protect Miami either by offering a limited number of years or by having descending monetary value as time goes on.
Yet, it is known that Butler is an alpha, a player whose mentality is similar to Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant. In the same why that Miami might be uncomfortable in signing a superstar that would take too much of the spotlight and/or responsibility off of Butler, they will be uncomfortable in low-balling (not offering the max) to a player who wants to lead his team against the very best teams in the NBA.
Will Miami risk alienating their best player? Will Butler recognize Miami’s concerns about his longevity? In past years, Miami and Pat Riley would likely be ready for a stand-off (they let Alonzo Mourning, a franchise icon, leave, after all). But, in this era, it seems more likely that the Heat will cater to Jimmy’s demands, no matter what long-term implications that might have.
