The Most Improved Player Award: The Contenders

See Part 1 and Part 2 here.

This article was co-written by Isaac O’Neill and Chris Howson-Jan

The criteria for Most Improved Player has largely remained the same over its 36 year history. The collective NBA zeitgeist seems to follow consistent yet arbitrary criteria for “improvement” in terms of draft picks and their expected development. Later picks that show promise early on, or higher picks that bloom later are the ones rewarded. No matter which development curve you prefer, the bar for breaking into the MIP conversation has risen in the last ten years, as the NBA has taken huge strides in player development.

To me, the intrigue of the award lies in how unique each season’s batch of candidates are. This year, we see a decent mix of former first round picks with fairly diverse career arcs. Interestingly, they all hail from fairly good teams, which is not always the case (e.g. Jerami Grant, who was runner-up last season behind Julius Randle).

As of this writing (November 30th, 2021), here are the odds-on favourites to win Most Improved Player:

• Ja Morant, Miles Bridges, Tyler Herro, Dejounte Murray, Anthony Edwards, Cole Anthony, OG Anunoby, Jordan Poole, Tyrese Maxey, LaMelo Ball, Talen Horton-Tucker

You can check out our prior article to see what I had to say on Ja Morant’s candidacy. Today, we’re here to talk about everyone else. Before we begin, there are other longshots in the conversation not listed above.

• Michael Porter Jr. has struggled with injury, and been underwhelming when he does find himself on the court. Even so, his leap last year probably hurt his chances, as he finished third.

• RJ Barrett has continued his upward trajectory. Unfortunately for him, linear development does not typically favour the MIP. Ask Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons, Rudy Gobert, Fred VanVleet, SGA, and many others. Also unfortunate for him is the perpetual comparisons to his draftmates Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. And, as outlined in our Ja article, it takes a seismic leap for a young lottery pick to enter the conversation.
• I also want to shout out SGA, who continues to raise the ceiling on what type of player I think he can be. Given SGA’s improvement last year, as well as the Thunder’s allergy to trying to win games, I unfortunately think he remains on the outside of the conversation looking in.

Based on historical precedent, lets slash some players from contention.

• Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball were top three picks last year, outperforming expectations and showing huge promise, especially in the latter half of the season. They have remained on their trajectories this season. There is no recent precedent for such players collecting any notable number of votes.
• Cole Anthony and Tyrese Maxey are sophomores as well, drafted 15th and 21st respectively. Measuring against the two sophomore winners of this century — Gilbert Arenas and Monta Ellis — it’s hard to gauge expectations for either of them. Arenas improved by 7.5 PPG on a 2% dip in True Shooting Percentage. Ellis improved 9.7 PPG on 6% better TS%. Anthony and Maxey are currently on pace to average improved seasons of 7 PPG on +8% TS and 9 PPG on + 5.55% TS, respectively, this season, Still, they are likely to remain outside the All-Star conversation, albeit for very different reasons. They are the hardest cuts of this slashed group.
• Talen Horton-Tucker is technically a third-year player, but for all intents and purposes will be treated as a sophomore in the MIP conversation. Drafted 46th overall, he may fit the mould slightly better than Anthony or Maxey, currently averaging 7 more PPG on similar TS%. It feels rare that a fourth or fifth-best player on a contending team joins the running for the award. If he can maintain his scoring improvement and log a borderline All-Defensive season, he may have a case. Five games in, we’ll wait and see.
• The PPG argument also applies to Dejounte Murray, whose mere 3 PPG uptick will likely not be enough for the award. The Spurs can not be counted out of any playoff race, but the slow starts hurts Murray’s chances of remaining relevant in the conversation. For perspective, MPJ’s third place appearance came after an increase of 10 PPG on a contending team.

That leaves what I think to be the fairly obvious front runners (outside of Morant); Miles Bridges, Tyler Herro, OG Anunoby, and Jordan Poole. I think Darius Garland and Lonzo Ball also deserve mention, despite remaining outside the top ten in most sportsbooks.

• Garland’s chances may increase as he develops this season, and could be a value bet if you take him today, especially in the wake of Collin Sexton’s season-ending meniscus surgery. We will likely see Garland take on the primary creation role for a team on pace to drastically surpass expectations, a recipe for success with any NBA award. Like Morant, he is in his third season, drafted 5th overall behind Ja. However his trajectory differs from Morant in that he had a weak first season, missing All-Rookie. His leap forward last year also hurts his chances, thanks to the strange calculus of ‘improvement’ for the award.
• Lonzo Ball and the Chicago Bulls of course fit this mould as well. He profiles similarly to Oladipo as a former second overall pick with an up-and-down career. However, his solid season last year, and Ball’s stature as the probable fourth option on his team, will likely thwart any real chance he has of winning the award. And how can you possibly pick him for any award over the Carushow?

Let’s break the real contenders down:

Miles Bridges

Isaac: Bridges probably came out with the hottest start of anybody in this group. His lob chemistry with LaMelo Ball was instant last season, but this year he has evolved into taking players off the bounce, in combination with his newly developed step back three point shot.

Bridges began the first 9 games averaging around 25 points, and has cooled down to averaging 21 PPG for the season, still an increase of around 9 points per game over last season. Bridges’ free throw attempts, rebounds, and steals are also up, on top of every advanced statistic, other than TS%, which has naturally dipped given his increased volume.

After being a slotted as a potential top three pick in 2017, Bridges shocked draft analysts by staying an extra year at Michigan State. He fell to 12th in the 2018 draft, and didn’t show much promise to be anything more than a respectable two-way starter on a solid team. Expectations weren’t sky high at any point, but they weren’t particularly low either. That lack of a narrative like Siakam or Randle had makes his candidacy that much harder.

Bridges’ chances at MIP would greatly benefit if the Hornets can maintain status as a top six team in the East. It’s hard to imagine them staying consistent enough to gain a home berth in the first round. A solid defender, Bridges is still a far cry from any All-Defensive team at this point. He would likely have to improve on that end while simultaneously juicing his offensive numbers further to truly enter the All-Star conversation behind the Eastern big men that include Giannis, Durant, Butler, Bam, Randle, Sabonis, Vucevic, Tatum, Brown, and Middleton.

Tyler Herro

Isaac: In 2014–15 Draymond Green finished as the runner up in the Defensive Player of the Year Award (behind Kawhi Leonard), and as the Most Improved Player (behind Jimmy Butler). Tyler Herro is likely the first player since Green to contend for two different awards — for the Most Improved, and Sixth Man.

I suppose Herro’s trajectory is fairly unique. Herro was the 13th overall pick in 2019, and logged a solid rookie season, making the All-Rookie Second Team. He then contributed critical minutes in the Heat’s run to the 2020 Bubble Finals, with some all time great performances by a rookie in the playoffs. Expectations were unrealistically high heading into last season, and Herro “disappointed,” insofar as he fell back down to earth for a sophomore drafted 13th overall. This season Herro has jumped up from 15.1 to 21.6 PPG, while shooting 40% on 7 3PA per game.

A good historical comparison for Herro and his MVP award may be CJ McCollum, drafted 10th overall in 2012, and won the award in his third year. Interestingly, Herro and McCollum profile as similar players in Year 3, averaging similar splits. Both played the role of second or third option. What separates Herro is being a much better and higher volume 3-point shooter at this stage of his career.

The differentiator is Herro’s role as the Heat’s sixth man, acting as a key part of Miami’s offence when Lowry and Butler are off the floor. His odds to win Sixth Man started in preseason at +1500, and have skyrocketed all the way to -110. It’s tough to say if his shot at that award will help or hurt his narrative. Some will like that dual threat. Some may settle with giving him Sixth Man while rewarding someone else with MIP.

To make the leap ahead of Morant, Herro would likely have to up his scoring profile, while helping secure Miami’s place as a top 3 seed and inner circle contender in the East.

OG Anunoby

Chris: A popular outside pick for MIP honours during preseason voting, Anunoby cratered early in the season, shooting 7–34 in his first two games. Since then, he’s been scoring over 20 points per game and shooting 40% from 3, with the frisky Raptors relying heavily on him while Pascal Siakam was out to start the year.

OG doesn’t have much going for him in terms of narrative. Like Barrett, his development has been linear, with his points per game climbing about 3–5 points every year for the last three seasons. Like Bridges, he was projected to be a high lottery pick before undergoing season-ending knee surgery, causing him to slip to the 23rd pick in what many quickly pegged as a draft steal. And while the Raptors have performed up to preseason expectations and should be playing meaningful games late in the season, they are still a .500 team at their best and aren’t a surprise success to the same degree the Hornets, Heat, and Warriors have this season.

As a player, Anunoby’s fundamental, sometimes stiff two-way consistency often matches with stoic demeanor. This season, however, he’s spent much more time with the ball in his hands and creating his own shots, frequently using crossover dribbles and stepback mid-range jumpers from his pet spots. In many ways his combination of length and strength, along with his unnatural yet effective ballhandling skills, evoke comparisons to Kawhi Leonard, although Anunoby has not sniffed the consistency that Leonard has at his peak.

It’s clear, however that the Raptors have asked Anunoby to act more as a ballhandler and secondary/tertiary shot creator, and he has risen to the occasion. While his dribble moves and jumper package can frequently appear mechanical, there’s no question that his degree of shot difficulty has risen significantly. If the Raptors remain frisky and in the mix for the play-in game, and Anunoby’s role stays consistent after he returns from injury, he could be a strong if unsexy contender.

Jordan Poole

Chris: If the criteria for ‘most improved’ were based on a player’s lowest point in their career, Poole would have this award locked up. As a rookie in 2019–20, Poole was not only one of the worst players in the league to see significant action, but possibly one of the worst 20+ minutes/game players of all time. While his counting stats — 9 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists — were solid for a rookie, he finished the season with almost exactly as many points (503) as shot attempts (502) for an ungodly .454 TS%, along with a -6.6 BPM and a -1.5 VORP for the league-worst Warriors.

After both he and the Warriors took dramatic leaps forward in 2020–21, both have repeated their success so far this season, with Poole replacing Kelly Oubre in the starting lineup and becoming a bona fide third scoring option for a Warriors team that has come somewhat out of nowhere to hold the best record in the NBA (although some had them pegged as dark horse contenders from the jump).

At times Poole has looked downright Curry-esque on the court this season. Although he’s shooting just 33% from deep this season, he’s taking and making much tougher shots than he took earlier in his career, bombing spot-up and reload threes around the arc and even showing off a jab step pull-up at times. Like Curry, his offensive package is deceptively simple. He won’t burn you with speed or fake you out of your shoes, but he can finish from anywhere on the court with jumpers, floaters, and layups, and since last season has been doing so with surprising efficiency; this year he is shooting over 60% inside the arc and 78% at the rim, both absurd figures for a high-volume guard.

The biggest question mark surrounding both Poole and Golden State is the return of Klay Thompson. While it’s possible Thompson will be brought along slowly, given that it will have been over two and a half years since he suited up for an NBA game by the time he returns, it seems likely that he will eventually assume his rightful place in Golden State’s starting lineup. It will be interesting to see what that means for Poole, both in terms of his playing time and in how much he’ll play without Steph Curry on the court. Poole has played more than half of his minutes with Curry as his backcourt partner, and Curry’s ability to create open shots for his teammates simply by existing has been more prominent than ever this season. Ben Taylor at Thinking Basketball did a terrific breakdown recently of how much Curry does without doing anything; it will be interesting to see how Poole performs if his time in the Curry Club is diminished. For now, he’s thriving.

Wrap-Up

Regardless of who takes home the coveted NBA Most Improved Player Rectangular Holographic Glass Thingy Trophy, it will likely be a result that breaks from recent precedent. If Morant takes home the hardware, his trajectory will be a first in the history of the trophy, as we discussed in Part 2 of this series. If another one of the contenders earns the honour, they most likely will not be an All-Star (with the possible exception of Herro), the first time since CJ McCollum in 2015–16 that the winner has not been an All-Star. While Most Improved Player continues to be the most confusing award to prognosticate, it also remains one of the most fascinating to debate.