Who Stands to Gain the Most From the NBA Bubble? (Part 1)

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The Bench Connection

15 min readJul 30, 2020

by Chris Howson-Jan and Isaac O’Neill

This postseason was already shaping up to be one of the more interesting years in recent memory, with a slew of excellent teams and no obvious champion to pencil in. We have three legitimate contenders, with a strong field of fringe ones, means there are very few uninteresting playoff series. Now, another massive wrench has been thrown into the works in the form of the NBA restart, and more importantly the nearly four-month pre-playoff layoff. With so much at stake, and so much unpredictability bound to take place given this unprecedented end to the NBA season we are (hopefully) about to witness, we wanted to examine how players’ legacies will change with a deep playoff run.

Today we’ll be looking at players who have already cracked our list of the 100 best players of all time. The first iteration of our Top 100 can be found here, with new updates coming before and after the postseason.

LeBron James

Current Ranking: #2

Isaac: LeBron is already one of just three players to win Finals MVP on two different teams, along with Kareem and Kawhi. Becoming the first person to get a third FMVP on a third team (and his fourth overall) would certainly give analysts another talking point about why he has surpassed Jordan. I am not the type of person to cite rings as the only reason I think Jordan is better, and I think LeBron’s 2007 Finals loss ‘tarnishing’ his Finals record is unfair when comparing him to Jordan, who proved unable to win three rounds in a row at such a young age.

Chris: It’s interesting how LeBron’s numerous Finals appearances have become both a point for and against his greatness. It makes me wonder how people would react to MJ in the social media age; I feel like Tom Brady is the closest analogue. But while I agree that his Finals losses shouldn’t be held against him, it seems very unlikely at this point in his career that he reaches six rings as the #1 option. So for LeBron to be considered above MJ by a significant portion of the basketball community, it’s about quality, not quantity.

Isaac: Getting to four rings, and a fourth Finals MVP, would be huge, placing him behind only Jordan, and ahead of Duncan, Shaq, Magic, and Bird. But you’re right Chris, 3 or 4 rings versus 6 remains a tough debate. Other stats seem irrelevant to either side of the Jordan vs. LeBron debate. I personally think Jordan’s ceiling is higher, which is enough to make any supplanting of his spot difficult at this stage of LeBron’s career. He only shot to the conversation as a top 5 player after coming back from 3–1 in the series versus the 73–9 Warriors. At this point, getting another ring against high-level competition is imperative for Bron to reach GOAT status in my mind. Pre-COVID, the Lakers had already had one of the most turbulent seasons in memory; COVID-19 might incidentally boost the quality of this potential championship, given the loss of Avery Bradley from an already thin roster.

However you choose to rank them, the third best team this year is better than maybe any other third ranked team in a given season this decade; the closest argument is 2016, with the Warriors, Cavs, and Thunder/Spurs. Beating the Clippers and Bucks, while outplaying three other All-NBA level wings in Giannis, Kawhi, and PG would contribute more to his legacy than either of his Heat rings.

Chris: The barrier for LeBron to become the #1 player of all time is different for everyone. For some, he has already passed it. For some, he’ll never reach it. It’s a little tough for me to see a world where this year’s playoffs convince me that LeBron is the best ever, but a transcendent run at age 35 en route to a fourth ring would at least make me reopen the discussion.

Best case ranking — #1

Anthony Davis — #82

Chris: It would be tough to argue that Davis is the Lakers’ most important player, but the playoffs are a different beast. You don’t have to be the most important, or even the best player on a team to have a stellar playoffs. Davis’ playoff sample size is small but mighty: in 13 games over two postseason appearances with the Pelicans, he’s averaged 30.5/12.7/1.8, with 1.8 steals and 2.5 blocks. The fact that two of those three series are against the Warriors can be argued as a point for him (he played against elite competition) or against him (he played against a team with mediocre big men). But nonetheless, having a track record as a player who gets better in the playoffs is extremely promising, and even if Davis is “only” as good as his regular season self, he could still be the best player in the postseason.

Isaac: Davis has rightfully avoided blame for his lack of postseason success eight years into his career. His series versus the Blazers remains the most impressive defensive performance I’ve ever witnessed. The Pelicans eviscerated the 3-seed Blazers with a sweep; Damian Lillard looked lost as Davis manipulated their offence to his will, rather than the other way around. If Davis can throw up solid offensive numbers next to LeBron, with defensive wizardry that few other big men are capable of — while likely being the primary defender of Kawhi/PG/Giannis — he could definitely walk away with the Finals MVP.

Chris: And even if AD doesn’t come away as the Finals MVP, winning a championship as a true 1B player — as a Kobe or a Kareem, rather than a Pippen — would be massive for Davis’ legacy. We already have him as a top 100 player at age 27 with no MVPs and little notable playoff résumé. Adding a championship to that could vault him into the top 50, with the potential to end up somewhere in the Dirk/Garnett/Barkley/Malone morass by the time his career is done.

Best case ranking — #49 (ahead of Clyde Drexler)

Kawhi Leonard — #31

Chris: Kawhi already has the strangest résumé of any top-40 player: two Finals MVPs for two different teams (matching LeBron and Kareem), 2 DPOYs, and a credible argument as the best player in the league over the last four years or so. Yet at the same time, he’s pushing 30 years old, will end this season with only four career All-Star appearances, has what could be a chronic injury, and clearly treats the regular season like a warmup drill. I think it’s safe to say that Kawhi’s Pantheon case won’t be built on sheer body of work in the vein of John Stockton; he has to be transcendentally great in the time he has.

Isaac: Kawhi’s harshest critics will point to his 2014 Finals MVP being not quite on par with a typical FMVP. Those critics are correct in the sense that he was not the true best player for the Spurs at that point. In some ways it was awarded to him out of respect to LeBron (much like Andre Iguodala two years later). But adding a third Finals MVP for three different teams — a feat that he and LeBron are the first players to ever even sniff — would be unassailable. 3 rings and 3 FMVPs would leapfrog him past the slew of superstars in the 20s who either a) could only eke out 1 ring as the best player (Barry, Pettit, Wade, Garnett, Dirk), or b) have multiple rings but a lower ceiling in terms of carrying their teams (Pippen, Isiah, Havlicek).

Kawhi’s transcendence has the ability to push him to greatest-two-way-player-ever status, a table only Jordan, Olajuwon, Robinson, Duncan, and LeBron sit at at the moment. I think even without another championship, he will comfortably finish in the top 25 for his career. His résumé will round out with a few more accolades, and I still hope he can give one last crack at an MVP. But this year remains an interesting one, as he is on perhaps the most talented team of his career.

Best case ranking — #18 (ahead of Dirk Nowitzki)

Paul George — #93

Isaac: Paul George’s stature on the Clippers isn’t comparable to Pippen on the Bulls, or even Wade on the Heatles. He could very well shoot 40% + from 3, shutdown Giannis, and hit a game-winner en route to a Finals MVP. He sits alongside Kawhi as one of the best guys never to win an MVP.

Chris: You’re a much bigger PG fan than me Isaac, but I have to agree. In spite of the Playoff P memes, George showed last year that he can be a truly elite player. There’s no question he can stuff a stat sheet, but his problems in the playoffs have been in the details: his shot selection, his turnovers, and his sometimes questionable decision making. I think playing on a truly elite team for the first time since 2014 can take some of the pressure off of him and allow him to flourish. And him being on the team means Kawhi doesn’t have to be Superman for the Clippers to win; that opens the door for George to emerge as the top guy in the playoffs.

Isaac: Right now PG’s comp on our list is T-Mac, who never won a single playoff series in his entire career. This is the best team George has ever played on, and I am confident he will jump up this list by virtue of, at minimum, a tight Conference Finals with the Lakers. I know Kawhi is very willing to sacrifice his body come playoff time, but I’m also sure he’d prefer to play on two legs for a greater chunk of the playoffs than last year allowed him to. Kawhi turned up the dial on defence during the second half of this season, but George is just as capable of handling anyone on the floor. As we talked about with Anthony Davis, being a 1B instead of a 2 matters in a historical context. The Clippers have remained my pick to win the Finals all season; but Paul George’s health has been one of a few factors to cause me to waver. The time off has benefited PG as much as anyone, and we now have a better chance of seeing him at his best this postseason.

Best case ranking — #58 (ahead of James Worthy and Paul Pierce)

Giannis Antetokounmpo — #69

Isaac: The list of back to back MVPs in NBA history are as follows: Bill Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Moses, Bird, Magic, Jordan, Duncan, LeBron, Nash, Curry. We are writing this under the very likely presumption that Giannis will join them at season’s end. That list makes up a good bulk of the Pantheon, a place Giannis has a chance to be one day. He already sits at #69 overall, the lowest of any MVP (save for Derrick Rose).

Chris: Honestly, I’m ready to call it now: I’m looking at Giannis as a future top 10 all-time guy. Of the eleven names you mentioned, only Kareem and LeBron won their back-to-back MVPs before their 26th birthday. Kareem ended up with 6 MVPs; LeBron has 4 and should probably have at least one more. That’s the kind of rarified air we’re talking about with Giannis. The only question is, will this year’s playoffs be like LeBron in 2010, or Duncan in 2003?

Isaac: Cracking the top 10 is waaay harder than most people think; Durant and Curry have an outside chance if the back 9 of their careers break very well. But Giannis is on a good trajectory. Every great player experienced heartbreak; the 2018–19 Bucks were a bonafide contender in their own right, but making a Conference Finals matters as a stepping stone, even if they blew it as the Eastern favourite. I’ll concede Giannis may not have been quite up to his regular season self in the playoffs. But Kawhi, Fred Van Vleet Sr, and the Raptors peaked at the right time, and multiple Bucks players plummeted at the wrong time. What he did this year is nothing short of a statistical anomaly, and while we can account for some regression during the playoffs, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the Bucks steamroll their way to a title.

His overall resume is more complete than people think. After this season, he will have 4 All-Stars, two All-NBA 1st Teams, two 2nd Teams, and two All-Defensive 1st Teams and a 2nd Team. He also has a very good shot of becoming the third player to win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year (along with Jordan in ’88 and Robinson in ‘92). Longevity is primarily a privilege of modern players, and even with a Finals loss, his resume already stacks up against many of the greats.

Best case ranking — #25

James Harden — #35

Isaac: However unlikely it may be, the Rockets remain my pick as the team in the West most likely to upset one of the LA teams. The comparative road map for the Houston Rockets is the 2011 Mavs, who shot 39.4% from 3 for the entire playoffs. Like Dirk, Harden’s reputation as a playoff choker could be erased in a moment if he is able to take over at a key time. As we discussed in Part 2 of our Harden examination, even just making it to the Finals would erase a good portion of his notoriety.

Chris: I agree that the Rockets have the best chance of the second-tier West teams to make some noise: they’re experienced, they’re aggressive, and they play a very unique style that can force teams out of their comfort zone. And I think the Dirk comparison is spot-on as well. It’s not impossible that Russell Westbrook could come out of Houston’s playoff run looking like the top guy; he was doing just that over the last few weeks of the regular season (more on that shortly). But if we’re talking about a championship run for the Rockets, the far more likely scenario is that Westbrook is an overqualified second while Harden puts on the kind of show he has over the last few regular seasons. Last year in the playoffs, Harden averaged around 32/7/7 on solid efficiency. If he takes that level of performance all the way to the Finals, wouldn’t we have to consider that as one of the best playoff runs of all time?

Isaac: Given the teams the Rockets will have to beat, it would most certainly be one of the toughest playoff runs of all time. Even getting through one of the LA teams and gaining a Conference Finals berth would help still help Harden. The Lakers size, and the Clippers low-key ability to probably be better suited for super small ball than the Rockets themselves, makes their chances slim, but Morey went all in on Westbrook as a commitment to high upside. Westbrook’s revival will certainly take some of the pressure off of Harden, in a similar way Kawhi took pressure off of Lowry for the Raptors in the playoffs last year.

Best case ranking — #16 (behind Kevin Durant)

Russell Westbrook — #50

Chris: One of the biggest problems I’ve always had with Russell Westbrook is the way that he forces his team to adapt to his playstyle. Even when Westbrook and Durant played together, the Thunder were criticized for their simple play calling and their ‘my turn, your turn’ approach to playing around their two stars. In an age where positional and strategic versatility is incredibly valuable, Westbrook is really only effective playing one way: isolation heavy, Westbrook handling the ball, with shooters and a traditional big man around him. But that’s almost exactly how the Rockets play with Harden (sans the big man), and it makes a lot more sense to put Harden off-ball — even if it blunts some of his effectiveness — than it does to put Westbrook in a role he seems largely incapable of playing.

Isaac: It’s a shame Westbrook’s talent is often dulled by his stubbornness. He’s shot OKC out of a lot of games over the years, but he has also dragged them to wins they had no business pulling off. Say what you will about his MVP season; a few very memorable, very impressive wins at the end of his 2017 campaign swung enough voters. Stealing a game in the playoffs is enough to swing a series. Harden gets more criticized in the playoffs because people expect more from him, but this will be Westbrook’s chance to redeem his playoff woes as well. He deserves way more flak for losing to a Hayward-less, happy-to-be-there Jazz team led by rookie Donovan Mitchell, as the reigning MVP. But when the NBA shut down, he was playing the most efficient basketball of his career. Hopefully his COVID-19 diagnosis will not affect his health or performance in the least.

Chris: Over about half of the season — the Rockets’ first 35 games — Westbrook averaged 24.1 points per game, shooting 42.6%. Around that time, Houston noticeably shifted their offense to make Westbrook their primary offensive initiator. Since then, he’s averaged 32.2 points per game. He’s averaging slightly more shot attempts (24.6 vs. 21.2), but the big difference is the quality of shots: he’s shot 53.1% from the field over that stretch, and cut his 3 point attempts in half. The Rockets haven’t seen a ton of success with this new style of play, going 12–10 in games Westbrook plays, though they were 9–4 in his last 13 before the season was shut down. If the Rockets can solve their other flaws and make a deep run, it will be on the strength of Westbrook’s performance. So why couldn’t he win Finals MVP?

Best case ranking — #33 (ahead of Bill Walton)

Chris Paul — #29

Isaac: The Thunder aren’t completely sunk in any of their possible playoff matchups; they could definitely give the Mavericks or Bojan-less Jazz some trouble, if not the Rockets or Nuggets. But getting trounced in the second round or losing a competitive first round series are not enough to move the needle in the Top 30 — and that’s a compliment to what Paul has already achieved in his career. Therefore, there’s really not much Paul can do to improve his standing on the Top 100. Chris recently wrote about Paul here and here. He is deserving of his placement, and what he’s done this season has bolstered any waning confidence that I might have had in him. He will comfortably be awarded a 2nd Team guard position (depending on how voters jig the positions of Butler, LeBron, and Doncic). Assuming he doesn’t stay in OKC for the remainder of his career, along with good health, his skills can still add solid value on a contender for a couple more years.

Best case ranking — #29, AKA get traded and win elsewhere.

Damian Lillard — #97

Isaac: Damian Lillard currently owns one 1st Team All-NBA selection, two 2nd Teams, and one 3rd Team. Harden is locked into a 1st Team spot this year, with Lillard holding an outside chance to beat Doncic for the other one. That is no joke, particularly in this point guard golden age. Lillard has continued to improve and impress skeptics every year his career. He averaged 27 points / 7 assists / 7 FTA over the last 3 seasons, while shooting 37% behind the arc on 8.7 3PA/game despite taking a lot of difficult shots. His shot selection and numbers would seem otherworldly, if it wasn’t for Curry’s inter-dimensional ones.

Chris: Lillard might be the only player on our list who can climb up the rankings without even winning a playoff series. The Blazers will have to fight just to make it into the playoffs, between finishing in the 8th or 9th spot (likely having to battle with the Pelicans to get there) then winning the play-in game(s). If he can do that and push the title favourites to 6 or 7 games, the nearly universal respect Lillard gets would continue to grow.

Isaac: We keep hitting this point home, but there are fewer good players with a lengthy, consistent career than you might think. If Lillard can continue churning out solid playoff performances, the masses will respect what he’s been able to do given his supporting cast. Adding a 1st Team, and giving the Lakers a tough first round series would help his case as a legit number one guy. He has milked more ounces out of his personal and team potential than anyone. Like Chris said, Lillard will be able to keep climbing this list as he continually proves Portland skeptics wrong.