Beyond the Basics — Texas’ 6th Congressional District
If this is your first time reading, please check out the methods laid out in the announcement/background post.
Overview:
On May 1, 2021, voters in Texas’ 6th Congressional District had to choose from 23 candidates for their next representative. With such a crowded field, a consequential July 27, 2021 runoff election is happening to decide whether Jake Ellzey or Susan Wright will be the next US Congress member. By analyzing frequent nonpresidential federal election voters in Texas CD6, I will gather insights about voters’ demographics, motives, and media habits, forming an effective strategy to secure this district.
Demographics:
According to US Census information, Texas’ 6th Congressional district contains 818,442 residents with 40.19% of the population being aged 25 to 54, whereas our analysis shows an addressable 376,000 voters with 43% being aged 55+. Census data shows 15.21% of the general population have completed some college without attaining a degree, while this non-graduate group is the largest education segment of the identified voter population at 49.00%. Socioeconomically, the targeted population has a household income of $25,000 to $75,000, significantly lower than the mean income of $89,634 and generally lower than the median of $71,161 provided by Census data.
While the average age of the general population matches that of the segmented audience, their education and socioeconomic differences must be considered when determining constituent needs and applicable messaging. Another aspect to consider is the importance of education — especially at the primary and secondary education levels, as 47% of the voter audience have children under the age of 18.
Personal Values and Daily Life:
Analysis shows the segmented audience values obeying the law, safety and security, and religion as imperative components of life. Furthermore, this group places significant value on family and religion and weighs a job’s fulfillment more than its compensation.
Media Habits:
Looking at media habits, 55% of the segmented voter population spends at least 20 hours online per week, and 55% are medium-to-heavy social media users, particularly on Facebook. Beyond Facebook, YouTube usage is fairly prevalent among these voters. With other media consumption, users prefer standard TV over streaming services and are avid consumers of local daily news outlets.
According to the Facebook Ad Library, 2020 General Election candidates Ron Wright and Stephen Daniel combined spent over $50,000 on advertising from May 2018 to November 3, 2020. While this amount of spend isn’t a fact to gloss over, neither candidate ran any YouTube ads. Expanding beyond Facebook to a platform like YouTube allows for expanded reach to an audience that may not be present on social media. A combination of Facebook, YouTube, and local news outlets would be the best way to address the target group of voters.
Political Drivers:
According to the 2021 Cook Partisan Voter Index, Texas’ 6th Congressional District ranked as Republican +6, slightly less right-leaning than 2017’s rating of R+9. Since 1983, this district has been represented by a Republican in the US Congress.
Although these two points allude to a heavy GOP constituency, analysis of frequent voters in nonpresidential federal elections shows a composition of 41% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 15% Independents with the voter landscape indexing higher than average for Resolute Republicans, In-flux Inactives, and Dedicated Democrats. This means this audience is very politically active on both sides of the spectrum, not just the right.
Expanding on the themes of religion and lawfulness, key issues for these voters include: defending traditional marriage, religious outreach and missions, maintaining the second amendment, care and help for veterans, and law enforcement and border security. Furthermore, catering to the needs of the In-Flux Inactives and convincing those swing voters could prove to be the tipping point for the 2 Republican runoff candidates.
Key Takeaways:
Upon initial review, Texas’ 6th Congressional District frequent nonpresidential voters seem to fit the district’s voting patterns and partisanship. However, deeper analysis shows these voters embody a more diverse demographic and political makeup, with a large, persuadable portion that is heavily active online and concerned with issues relevant to these campaigns.
Utilizing YouTube and local news outlets as mediums to deploy messaging, focusing on areas of security, lawfulness, and community, and pragmatically expanding beyond the devoted Republican voters of the district are serious considerations Susan Wright and Jake Ellzey should look to as the July 27th election nears.
