The $100B Mobile Revolution Will Not Be Televised
You probably won’t even see it coming
I’ve been obsessed with WeChat since using it in Shanghai late 2014. It’s the omni tool for everything — use it to chat, order a taxi, send friends money, bank online, etc. So naturally, the question that has been nagging me for the past year is: where is the WeChat of the west?
There won’t be one. But there will be a $100bn+ opportunity in connecting services on mobile.
To bundle or unbundle?
In the US today, we can do a lot on our smartphones but many of these services require disparate tools: we buy coffee with a credit card, tip in cash, and hail cabs with a smartphone— why can’t we do it all within one tool like WeChat?
WeChat makes western apps look archaic but the difference isn’t so much WeChat’s bundled features; on a deeper level, WeChat is attractive because it provides super easy access to various services.
Here in the US we like a constellation of apps that do one thing well rather than a swiss-army knife. I doubt that behavior and preference will change anytime soon — just look at how Facebook unbundled messenger, Snapchat got rid of original content, and LinkedIn introduced a standalone job search app. However, one recent integration got me hopeful again — Uber’s integration with Facebook messenger, but not because of its “bundling” appearance. Instead, what got me excited was how this integration occurred between two different apps and the future that lies ahead.
What mobile revolution will look like in the West
Let’s take a step back and revisit WeChat. I think of WeChat as a main terminal to a central hub. Everything is in one place and accessed through one point. I think of the Western mobile future as a large, distributed but highly connected network that can be accessed at any point. The model in the West, then, may not be one messenger that acts as the portal to all services, but rather, all services are neatly integrated with each other via deep links, open APIs and new technologies that haven’t been created yet. For example, you’re on Yelp, you book through open table, and arrange for an uber all at once. You’re on uber, you get your reminder for dinner from open table, and yelp reviews on specific dishes. These services are connected in the background and accessible through any portal.
Get Tim Chen’s stories in your inbox
Join Medium for free to get updates from this writer.
Recent funding in AI, machine learning, virtual assistants, etc. from investors and tech companies has everyone giddy on an AI-driven future. Could an AI-driven chat app streamline bundled services and bring them to the masses? Could it reshape how we think about marketing? Possibly, but everyone is putting the carriage in front of the horse. AI-driven apps sound awesome but I believe we’re still a couple of years away from a super intelligent “Siri”.
For example, I actually just asked Siri to “Call an Uber.” It came back with two results: “Call in Newburgh” and contact information for a friend who works at Uber. Neither of which I was looking for. I then asked Siri to “Open Uber,” which it does with ease. But I could have tapped the app on my home screen with less effort to achieve the same effect. If I could say “call an uber to my brother’s place”, and Siri was able to plug in all the details, THAT would be magical. But it can’t because Siri doesn’t have access to Uber.
These AI-driven apps are like designing a car but the roads haven’t been fully laid yet. In this case, the roads are pathways that integrate various service apps like Uber, Yelp, OpenTable, etc.
The $100B opportunity
The opportunity to build roads across various services and seamlessly integrate them into a comfortable user experience will be huge. In fact, it could be $100B huge.
- Global mobile ad spend is estimated to hit $100bn in 2016. How much more efficiently are you willing to spend if you knew how and when to advertise to a consumer because these interconnected apps help you better understand the context? Instead of simply slapping ads on Instagram based on Facebook targeting, marketers could go one step deeper by showing you a relevant Nike advertisement for a sale at a store near you and link all the way through a Postmate delivery. Instead of “clicking the ad and the link in the profile”, marketers could solicit a more direct engagement with the consumer and the brand. Because these apps are not connected, user targeting is still very one-dimensional; e.g. “click to view.”
- Within marketing, customer acquisition will get very interesting. People like and will pay for convenience, especially when contextually relevant; e.g. Facebook Messenger is now an acquisition channel for Uber. Imagine accessing potential customers across any apps through contextually relevant use cases, not targeted ads. Companies will become more creative as they add layers and dimensions to their acquisition strategy.
The future of mobile in the West will come from technology that builds the roads to connect various apps and services. It will all be under the hood. Before we know it, we’ll have gone through a mobile revolution.
If you enjoyed this read, please recommend ☺
Comments? Suggestions? Questions? Write me a note below!
Follow me on Twitter at @timothyxchen for more stories like this on the Art of Business
