The New York Derby
NYCFC sits in third in the Eastern Conference, and in the Supporter’s Shield race with 47 points. Their cross-town (state lines) rivals, New York Red Bulls, are one point above them with a game in hand. Both teams lost coaches to Europe during the season. Patrick Viera became the head man at Nice, and Jesse Marsch became an assistant at Leipzig under Ralf Rangnick.
Viera was the most tactically inflexible manager in the league during his time at NYCFC. His teams would press high, and valued possession, almost always building from the back — at times to their detriment. He was replaced by Pep Guardiola’s lead assistant, Domenec Torrent. Torrent hasn’t made sweeping changes to NYCFC’s setup, but has shown an ability to be more pragmatic than Viera was. In Torrent’s first game against NYRB, his team was willing to play over NYRB’s press instead of insisting on trying to build from the back.
Under Marsch, Red Bulls were the most aggressive vertical passing team in the league, coupling the vertical passing with an aggressive high press. It’s too early to make definitive statements about his successor, Chris Armas, but he appears to want more possession of the ball than Marsch did.
Offensively
It’s hard to separate the two teams offensively. NYCFC have scored 48 goals in 25 games, and are generating 13.16 chances and 1.97 xG per game. NYCFC trails only Sporting Kansas City in chances per game and only Atlanta United in xG per game. Their chance location is fairly varied; they certainly aren’t afraid to take shots from deep or wide areas.
Red Bulls, 47 goals in 24 games, trail ever so slightly behind with 1.91 xG per game and 12 chances per game. While they don’t create as many chances as NYCFC, the chances they do create tend to be from better locations. Part of the explanation for the shot locations is Marsch’s system. NYRB turn teams over in the middle of the field, and try to funnel the ball forward as quickly as possible. They don’t attempt to spread teams out wide, preferring instead to break straight through the center of the field.
The Strikers
Both of these teams are headlined by DP strikers, David Villa and Bradley Wright-Phillips. While their pedigrees are drastically different, their performance in MLS has been pretty similar — excellent. NYCFC is batting 1 for 3 with aging European DP’s, but that one hit has turned into one of the best DP signings in the history of the league. BWP, on the other hand, was a trialist who the club has, to one degree or another, tried to replace until recently. He‘s reached the century mark of goals for the club, and while Red Bulls’ history says he isn’t safe, it’s hard betting against him leading the line for them in the coming years.
BWP’s ChanceMap is pretty ideal looking, almost completely central and from inside the box. He’s not quite elite in terms of volume (2.8 chances/game), but he gets into tremendous locations (.20 xG/chance). While it’s not quite as pronounced as it was for Josef, BWP is another player who’s goal involvement rate is much higher than his chance involvement rate. He’s been involved in 59% of NYRB’s goals, while only being involved in 39% of the chances.
Villa has missed a bunch of time to injury this year, but he’s still getting over 4 chances per game from great locations. He’s more likely to take a speculative shot than BWP, but you’re allowed when you do things like this.
The Creative Fulcrums
While the strikers are the most recognizable players on both teams, there’s an argument to be made that their respective creative midfielders have actually been the players most instrumental in their success. Alejandro Romero Gamarra (“Kaku”) has been excellent in his first year for Red Bulls, while Maxi Moralez has taken some big strides in year two with NYCFC and deserves to be mentioned as an MVP candidate.
The two maps above show the locations from where Kaku and Moralez have created chances this year. Moralez generally starts from deeper than Kaku does, and also does more work as a ball progressor. You can see the depth piece a little bit on the maps, with Moralez being the more likely of the two to create something from deep, and Kaku not really moving from the left channel until RB are in the attacking third.
The two maps below show the locations of the chances that Moralez and Kaku have created. Kaku is creating 3.8 chances per 90 minutes with an xG/ chance created of .19. In contrast, Moralez is creating a higher volume of chances (4.5/90), but generally lower quality (.13 xg/chance created). The differences in both sets of maps probably have more to do with how their respective teams deploy them with than the talents of the individual players. I feel confident that Kaku would be successful in Moralez’s role and vice versa.
What to Watch for Tonight
With the game being played on the small field at Yankee Stadium, the success of either side’s high press could make the difference. In past fixtures, I would have given the edge to the Red Bulls due to Viera’s insistence on building from the back and Marsch’s pragmatic approach. However, the new managers have blurred each team’s identity a bit, and, in fact, in the last New York Derby, it was the Red Bulls who lost due to a goal conceded after a turnover in their own defensive third. I won’t gamble on the outcome, but I’ll be glued to my couch for two hours this evening.
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform.
