The Recent IPCC Report on Impact, Vulnerability, and Adaptation is Extremely Concerning
The second working group of the IPCC recently released its report on vulnerability and adaptability in light of climate change. The report, unfortunately, didn’t receive the attention it should and must get due to other world events.
This report follows the physical science basis report published eight months ago by the first working group. In that report, the IPCC concluded that it is unequivocal that humankind is responsible for climate change, mainly due to emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.
It also stated that we are currently at 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) of global warming and this temperature may be between 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and 5.7 °C (10.3 °F) in the year 2100, depending on which actions we as humans take. Radical actions with a significant reduction in carbon dioxide are needed. With the disappointing outcomes of the climate conference in November last year, that window has almost closed.
Impact
However, there is no need to wait until 1.5 °C of global warming before we are going to see its impact. Everyone saw the effect last year with hot dry summers, large forest fires, and a high number of storms and flooding. And this is precisely what IPCC’s second working group concludes. The impact of climate change is visible.
Ecosystems have changed due to global warming. For example, studies on thousands of species, both on land and in water conclude that at least half of them have moved geographically towards the poles. Those upper regions are now less cold and former habitats have become too hot. Additionally, about two-thirds of species start earlier with the breeding season, as winters are warmer and shorter.
This also has moved diseases to new geographic regions, such as the Arctic areas and high mountains, to which both local wildlife and humans are not resistant. With higher temperatures and humidity, diseases occur more often and spread faster. For example, the number of toxic fungi on human food crops has increased, threatening the world's food supply.
Over 50% of species around the equator have experienced mass extinction of the local population due to extreme events. The IPCC forecasts that 39% of all species are at risk of extinction when global warming reaches 3 °C.
Extreme events are expected to occur more often and have more impact. At a temperature rise of 4ºC by 2100 the IPCC projects that forest fires burn 50–70% more land and occur 30% more often. At the same time, flood damages are to be expected 4 to 5 times higher than current.
Vulnerability
Some (groups of) humans are significantly more vulnerable to the impact of climate change than others. Women, children, the elderly, Indigenous People, low-income households, and socially marginalized groups within cities, settlements, regions, and countries are the most vulnerable.
About 1.8 billion people live in regions that have a low vulnerability to climate change impact while 3.3 billion people live in countries highly vulnerable to these impacts. Countries that are vulnerable have 15 times higher mortality rates due to droughts, floods, and storms than less vulnerable countries.
About half of the world's population could experience severe water scarcity when global warming reaches 4 °C. Another billion people in coastal cities will be impacted by the rise in sea level. By 2100, it is expected that 9 million people will die yearly of climate-change-related events.
Many people living today will see and feel the effects. By 2030, over 100 million people in Africa will be exposed to the risks of sea level rise. Before 2030, water scarcity will hit the Small Island States and Maori communities in New Zealand.
But the effects are not only physical. Mental health distress has increased due to ecological destruction, extreme weather, and climate events, such as loss of livelihood and food insecurity.
Adaptation
Since 2008, over 20 million people had to involuntary migrate as a result of climate change effects, mainly storms and flooding. Migration is seen as an important part of adaptation to the effect of climate change: moving to a different place.
The IPCC sees hard boundaries in adaption, especially when temperatures rise about 3 °C, and is mainly driven by water scarcity.
Ecosystems, such as plants and wildlife, may not be able to adapt fast enough and risk mass extinction. While restoring ecosystems helps in protecting and building them, such as the tropical forest, it cannot prevent loss of biodiversity. For example, restoration alone will be insufficient to protect coral reefs beyond 2030 and mangrove forests beyond 2040.
Current strategies lack funding to provide sufficient adaptation against the impacts of climate change. Strategies also insufficiently address inequality and poverty reduction, increasing the risk of a split between society: those who benefit or can afford adaption, and those who cannot.
Conclusions
The IPCC is clear: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Time is running out for global action on mitigation and adaptation to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.
