Crypto Signals model updates
Over the last few months, we’ve looked to improve the crypto signals model we built over a year ago. The updates to the model and the telegram group are as follows:-
- Model re-calibration so that it’s more representative
- Create a better upper and lower price prediction
- Provide 95% and 5% percentiles of prediction within the telegram message
- Move to a 1-hour forecast
- Fix broken link in the production
Please follow this link to get the improved messages from the telegram group. If you would like us to provide the bot in any other way, please add comments to the article.
1. Model re-calibration
We have updated the machine learning models to include Bitcoin price data from 2022 to 2023, reducing the model forecast error. The chart below shows the model’s new prediction vs the actual. In the chart, the green line represents the actual, and the red line represents the prediction.
2. Upper and Lower Price Prediction
We now provide the blue and orange lines (lower and upper prediction) as part of the message. The upper and lower predictions are based on the historic model error we have seen. Before this, we provided one price, whereas now we provide a price spread for the 1-hour future forecast.
3. 95% and 5% percentile of prediction
We now provide the historical predictions for 1-month 95% and 5% percentile. We hope these give users a better context of the current price forecast to inform their decisions. The higher and lower black bands on the 1st chart show these; the middle black line represents the median, which is not included in the price message. However, please tell us if the median/mean is useful.
4. One Hour Forecasts
Users felt the 3-minute forecasts provided too many messages throughout the and, so we moved to an hour to make the messages more helpful to users.
5. Broken links
As the service is free, some of the links we used for data feeds became broken; we have now updated these to get better up-to-minute data for our users.
The new message posted in the telegram can be seen below:-
The telegram group is currently free as we aim to democratise machine learning for retail crypto investors and hopefully give people better information when managing their crypto assets. Investing is your own risk, and any choices/decisions are at your own risk.
Possible future project:-
- Add Ethereum or second crypto asset price forecasts.
- Create Twitter Bot.
- Create a warning bot alongside the Pricing Bot.
- Create a Blockchain Oracle.
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