Expanding the Macro — a Treatise on what I see
So first thing I want to point out, is the divergence between wishful @Binance BTC weekend price and CME’s. Just to knock out crypto quickly — here’s the weekend divergence.
There’s 3 ways it goes, but in *decreasing* order of likeliness. 1: we return to that gap to then pick a direction, 2: we tap it for a second upon open tomorrow (18 hours from now) and then continue upwards, or 3: we leave a gap that we fill on 9/21 FOMC meeting.
is ETH in the same boat? You bet. So that’s crypto for the weekend, for anyone following. Lots of caveats can be applied here to add additional analysis
For example, OI (open interest) is fading on BTC already on this scam pump because of course it is. BTC is being dumped to exchange as I type this because of course it is. OI fade:
Likewise, surely coincidence people are dumping on exchange already, even if it’s small (possibly because weekend).
If you’ve read my analysis, I’m sure this is your face as well. So that’s crypto. Fake pump on air, almost no reason to be bullish, wake me later.
DXY continues to pump, and stock market is walking down slowly, despite the biggest gap in decades Friday. We pretty much have to raise rates for now.
Macro shows us that budget is matching CPI for now, an indication I use. Call it the ergodic budget, a term I’m making up for fun.
Meanwhile, see that 2y and 10y inversion, and current rate from fed below them both? That means…if we don’t want fed to have to cut rates on themselves, they’ll have to raise rates — which increases 2y and 10y significantly. Good for people with USD bank accounts, but… terrible for people imagining any asset under the sun is not going to collapse when we are bordering on safer returns from bank accounts than from the stock market coming. None will survive. 2y will by definition go up faster than 10y, it’s if fed ever goes above 10y — that you need to be 100% cash or short everything for at least a year. We’re not at that point yet, but it can happen. gas and oil are near forming H&S to go down, but it’ll take months into probably next year.
The problem there becomes after the H&S, where they moon. So we have a year or two of bear, and then we repeat 1980’s relative policy and then it explodes in price. Oil less likely than gas, as Oil demand is disappearing.
This is called Russia collapse — because Oil is their power primarily, and OPEC’s as a secondary. It just takes time. Funny thing is, US asked them to increase production and they said no. I expect Russia is going to be gone as a global power or as a country — either or. I don’t think a Putin exit is necessarily in the cards or would change that trajectory, even if it’s a decade out.
What about energy? Energy may explode even if we don’t get rid of Bitcoin, but if we do, it too will go down. Bad news for the entire sector or good news, depending. Likely energy is going to explode, and banks will do just fine.
So hold onto your hats, it’s going to be a hell of a ride ahead.
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