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Hyperbitcoinization: Winner Takes All

(or how Bitcoin gets to $100,000,000)

Socially Wired Money

The S-curve of adoption. As succesive groups adopt a new technology or idea market share rises. The tipping point (green circle) marks an inflection point and leads to rapid growth in adoption.
U.S. household technology adoption rates. On the left major innovations over the last 120 years. On the right, older technologies have been removed. The “S-curve” of adoption rarely follows the textbook. Source:

The rate of growth itself is growing, leading to shorter, steeper adoption curves.

In just over a month Bitcoin’s price increased 3.6X.
Log price chart on the left demonstrates Bitcoin’s network effects at play. Linear price chart on the right places Bitcoin’s price on the flat part of the S-curve of adoption at some time before the tipping point.

Bitcoin Growth Model

Classic mineral crystallization scheme. Aggregates (orange stars) join to form larger crystals. Once the crystallization process passes the tipping point (green circle) it grows exponentially as the energy of the system favors the crystal over individual units. Adpated from CrystEngComm.
Once Bitcoin’s ecosystem is seeded a crystallization process begins. Growth becomes exponential and self-reinforcing. In this model, the tipping point (green circle) represents a dramatic change at which point many people and oganizations adopt Bitcoin.

Rejecting Bitcoin will cost more than adopting it.

The hyperbitcoinization graph limited to price events. Although depicted as distinct segments, each phase will overlap. For example, we see medium of exchange events well before the tipping point.
In 2018 Bitcoin is still under the peak nucleation graph building its infrastructure.

Global Valuation of Money

Bitcoin Valuation

Bitcoin Price Trend

The orange line is a non-linear regression curve. The green curve is a trend line formed by the top of Bitcoin’s earlier bubbles. The recent price spike was a “minor” bubble and did not reach the top of the bubble curve.
Hypothetical S-Curve for hyperbitcoinization. As of June 2018 $10K 200 DMA to $100M per Bitcoin. The graph is not intended to depict or predict prices along the path to the plateau.
Hypothetical S-Curve for hyperbitcoinization (lite). As of June 2018, $10K 200 DMA to $10M per Bitcoin. Hyperbitcoinization occurs about 3 years or so ealier than the $100M model. The graph is not intended to depict or predict prices along the path to the plateau.

“Bitcoin is network money for a network economy”




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