Rate Hike/Rate Cut…Whatever

BTC 25k calls were lit up in a few expiries today. 29 July got the most action with 875 contracts traded at Paradigm. Some will say it’s all about the rates.

With Fed Fund futures pricing in lower rates by EOY and a 10–2 yield curve that printed below 0 at one point today, markets are looking for a friendlier monetary environment before long. This is really insane. The Fed’s not done raising rates but we’re already pricing in rate cuts?

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It helps when the inflation monster has been cooled and crude dipping below $100 was a sight for sore eyes. RBOB, gasoline futures, are about a full $1 off their contract highs. That’s significant. Bloomberg Commodity Index futures fell below their 200-day moving average today. That’s kinda shocking. A bear market for commodities? I don’t think the index has been below that average since late ’20. Kinda chilling.

Life moves pretty fast and gives you nothing but opportunity. Keep grinding. Feels like we’re entering a new cycle.