The Butterfly Effect
In a world with no butterflies
The butterfly effect is the idea that in complex systems small things can have non-linear (seemingly exponential or exaggerated) impacts. The term is attributed to Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician who successfully combined the two disciplines to create chaos theory. In the 1960’s Lorenz discovered that tiny, butterfly scale changes to the starting point of his computer weather models resulted in anything from sunny skies to violent storms — with no way to predict in advance what the outcome might be. Lorenz gave the example that a butterfly might flap its wings in the Amazonian jungle, and subsequently a typhoon would start in Texas a few weeks later.
“You could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby … changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole.”
— Fichte, The Vocation of Man (1800)
A Bug in Evolution
1) Over one million species of insects have been discovered and described but it is estimated that there may be as many as 30 million species on earth.
2) At any time, it is estimated that there are some 10 quintillion (10,000,000,000,000,000,000) individual insects alive, approximately 1.25 billion insects for every person on Earth. The total weight of all insects is about 70 times more than all the people.
3) Scientists estimate that insects make up to 90% of all species of animals on the planet and more than half of all living things.
4) It takes bees about 10 million nectar-collecting trips to make one pound of honey
5) Insects can be found in almost every habitat, from mountain ranges covered in snow to the hottest deserts on the planet.
6) Insects have been around for more than 350 million years, longer than the dinosaurs and flowering plants.
7) The largest known order of insects is Coleoptera (beetles), some 300,000 to 400,000 species of beetle have been described to date. The next largest is the Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths), followed by the Diptera (true flies) and then the Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps).
A collection of 11 research papers recently published by the Academy of Sciences (PNAS) is titled Insect decline in the Anthropocene: Death by a thousand cuts. The Anthropocene is an unofficial unit of geologic time, used to describe the most recent period in Earth’s history when human activity started to have a significant impact on the planet’s climate and ecosystems. As stated in the report, “Most biologists agree that the world has entered its sixth mass extinction event” (but the first one caused by us). When asked about his group’s findings of declining insect populations, one of the researchers summed up his thinking by stating that the falling numbers were likely due to a “multiplicity of factors, most likely with habitat destruction, deforestation, fragmentation, urbanization, and agricultural conversion being among the leading factors”. Insects are suffering from “death by a thousand cuts”. The PNAS report lists many factors that contribute to the decline in the population of bees¹ (including the domesticated honey bees and the wild bumble bees who play a crucial role in pollination), butterflies, spiders and other insects, captured in the image below. The root cause is clear however: mankind.
The Butterfly Effect of Insect Extinction
The report reminds us that “Insects comprise much of the animal biomass linking primary producers and consumers, as well as higher-level consumers in freshwater and terrestrial food webs. Situated at the nexus of many trophic links, many numerically abundant insects provide ecosystem services upon which humans depend: the pollination of fruits, vegetables, and nuts; the biological control of weeds, agricultural pests, disease vectors, and other organisms that compete with humans or threaten their quality of life; and the macrodecomposition of leaves and wood and removal of dung and carrion, which contribute to nutrient cycling, soil formation, and water purification. Clearly, severe insect declines can potentially have global ecological and economic consequences.”
To gain a better appreciation for the ecological importance of insects, read Why insects are crucial for ecological balance.
When mankind destroys nature it is also destroying itself.
Nature = World War?
As a kid I loved watching documentaries about nature, often with my mother, who was a natural science teacher and artist. I recall feeling how beautiful, wise and harmonious Nature is. But Kids growing up today get to watch shows on National Geographic and similar channels with names such as Nature’s Perfect Killing Machine, World’s Deadliest, A Very Dangerous Universe, Venom: Nature’s Killer, Extreme Animal Weapons, Deep Sea Killers, and The Largest Carnivorous Plant. These children likely perceive wildlife as a scary jumble of hostile creatures armed with teeth, claws and poisons, fighting each other to death for food and survival. No wonder human society is becoming more and more egoistic, violent and chaotic.
Perhaps National Geographic should rebrand itself as National Rifle Association?
The Perfect Ecosystem
Here are some reminders of what Nature is:
Annemarie Berukoff starts her post about the bio-system with the following quote:
“And when you don’t understand how webs connect; or how roots make leaves; or how the food web is many links that can’t be broken; when you lack empathy for the most ordinary creature, the worm or the bee, you become disconnected and pay the price one way of another, too often with disorder and disease.” Excerpt from Ecological Succession of Birchum Birch.
Annmarie writes poetically that “Parts are always connecting, moving and adapting. The cycle of birth, growth, maturity, death, and rebirth is nature’s way through seasons of growth and dormancy. It is never about instant delivery or gratification.”
Joan O'Donnell describes self organizing systems: “The idea that we are by nature complex self-organising beings, situated within a universe which is organised in the same way, should give us all pause for thought. It has profound implications for how we could potentially organise society, our organisations, and our lives.”
John Dobbin examines what we can learn from complexity Science about human organizations. “Complex Adaptive Systems are systems comprising of many interacting components (agents) that can learn or adapt. Examples include cities, economies, civilizations, the immune system, animal species, ecosystems, and organisations. Complexity science is the study of such phenomena.”
And then maybe we don’t need words. Take a look at some of the beautiful photographs shared by Jack Shepherd, such as 50 Breathtaking Panoramic Pictures of Nature in All Her Glory, or These Stunning Photographs Will Give You a New Appreciation of Nature.
Humanity in Chaos
In 2020 humans realized something very important: we are not in control. We have no idea what is happening in our world and in our life, and moreover how we can change the course of events. We cannot figure out the causes and consequences. The more we try to somehow squeeze some personal, sectorial or national benefit out of the rapidly changing conditions, the more these conditions seem to get worse, and our confusion and frustration grow. This is actually progress! We are discovering the interdependencies between us. Just like the fabric of nature is woven out of infinite threads of connection, so is human society. We need to change in order to adapt to this reality. We need to learn.
Chaos theory does not claim that Nature is indeterministic and random, a disorganized collection of objects and organisms. Rather “the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable” (Wikipedia), in other words, we simply cannot comprehend or model such system. Nature is actually the perfectly organized system of everything, an amazing puzzle built of infinite disparate and unique parts. As human beings, we should collaborate in our quest to put together the picture in the puzzle and learn from its perfect design, its all-encompassing thought. Then we will also understand how each one of us, and all of us together, can fit in the puzzle. Isn’t that a purpose worth living for?
We can learn from the ants how to build and maintain our shared home, from the bees how to make life sweet for others, from the spiders how to build webs of delicate connections. One day, the butterflies will teach us how to fly!
- “If the bee disappeared off the face of the Earth, man would only have four years left to live.” — Albert Einstein
