CAPSULE | READS: The Great Mental Models

Key takeaways on: Mental Models as Tools, Changing Conditions & Reverse Engineering.

ON MENTAL MODELS: Mental models are guides, tools of exploration.

1. Curiosity & desire to learn: Learning comes when experience meets reflection.
   > if you know the first principles of something, you can create your own understanding around back to produce something
2. Monitor: Honestly self-report so that feedback can be used advantageously.
   > look at yourself through a magnifying glass
3. Feedback: Occasionally solicit external feedback
   > go to people you trust that can give you honest feedback about your traits
   > soliciting feedback from others also teaches us how to give feedback

ON CHANGING CONDITIONS: Reality is the ultimate update.

• Consider probabilistic thinking when estimating likely outcomes to effectively strategize using tools of math + logic.
• Those who are not afraid to fail properly have a huge advantage over the rest as what they learn and benefit from makes them less vulnerable to the volatility of the world.
• Consider actions, immediate consequences and the subsequent effects of the effects.

ON REVERSE ENGINEERING: Inversion is a powerful thinking tool that helps remove obstacles to success.

• Whenever you are stuck, reverse engineer your way by starting at the end point.
• Prefer the simplest explanation with the fewest moving parts.
• Complexity takes work to decipher; simplicity can increase efficiency.

We run into problems when we think a description of the map is what it is instead of understanding & respecting its limitations.

Maps are guides — maps can’t show everything.

Learn to think in dynamic, not static terms.

Trends stem from conditions and conditions change.

Go from ‘solving problems’ ➡ ‘preventing problems’.

Thought experiments:

• thought experiments are devices of the imagination used to investigate the nature of thing & make you aware of your process.
• intuiting the non-intuitive
  > they are not daydreams. they require rigor + work, but the more you use them, the more you understand the actual cause and effect & the knowledge you have of what can really be accomplished.
• thought experiments teach you of the limits of what you should know and in order to improve better decision making + increase chances of success, we must be willing to prove all of the possibilities we can think of

Establishing First Principles Thinking:

1. If we never learn to take things apart, understand the pieces and construct them, we’re bound by what we’re told
2. If we want to identify principles, consider 5 whys & Socratic questioning
   > questioning further instead of introspection

First principles thinking = foundational knowledge that does not change.

Second Order Thinking:

• thinking holistically and further ahead ➡ current & subsequent effects
• consider actions, immediate consequences & following consequences of the effects
• comprehensive thought processes consider second order effects

Probabilistic Awareness & Probabilistic Thinking:

➡ Probabilistic Thinking

• trying to estimate using tools of math and logic to identify the most likely outcomes
• this is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions
• we don’t know what the day brings until we live out the day
  > the uncertainty gives rise to this kind of thinking

➡ Probabilistic Awareness
3 Important Aspects

1. Bandian thinking (complex): given that we have limited, but useful, information about the world and we are constantly encountering new info, we should take into account what we already know when we learn something new.
   > bandian allows us to use all relevant information in thinking & making decisions
   > putting context together to decipher new incoming information
   > any new situation that challenges the prior just means that the probabiliity of that prior may be reduced, eventually some priors are replaced completely
   > an ongoing cycle of challenging and validating what you believe you know
2. Fat tailed curves (normal distribution): the important thing is not the sit down and think about every possible scenario in the tail
   > deal with fat tail domains in the correct way by positioning ourselves to benefit from the wildly unpredictable future by planning for a world we don’t fully understand
3. Asymmetry (meta-probability): the probability that your estimates themselves are any good
   > estimate errors are asymmetric
   > probabilistic thinking is a valuable tool to evaluate how the world will most likely look that we can effectively strategize
   > those who don’t shy away from failing benefit from anti-fragility in a world of volatility
   > antifragility is unique: wherever possible, try to create scenarios for randomness | uncertainty are your friends, not your enemies

Inversion as a Tool — to invert, to upend, think backwards:

• consider opposite angles
  > what do you want to do?
  > what do you want to avoid?
  > eliminate conditions that make it impossible
• start by assuming True of False
  > think deeply of what you want to avoid ➡ start from here
• from solving ‘how do we fix this?’ ➡ preventing ‘how do we avoid having problems arise in the first place?’
• inversion shows us that we don’t need to be geniuses | when you are stuck, invert
• master observation, master the magician mindset
• by starting with logical outcomes and seeking to validate those, we advance our case with more efficiency and accuracy

Circle of Confidence:

• keep a journal of your own performance is the easiest and most private way of giving self feedback
• staying in your circle
  > stick to an area of confidence
  > be reluctant to straying away because then you don’t know what you don’t know
• if you can’t prove it wrong, you can’t prove it right | test often
• trends are not destiny | trends stem from conditions and conditions chance
• build & maintain
  > never take your circle(s) and knowledge for granted
  > recognize static versus dynamic ways of thinking

Occam’s Razor vs Hanlon’s Razor Mental Models:

1. Occam’s Razor: Avoid unnecessary complexity by helping identify and commit to the simplest explanation possible | Prefer the simplest explanation with the fewest moving parts
   > we all overly jump to complex explanations about something (jumping to conclusions, worst case scenarios, etc.)
   > complexity takes work to decipher
   > simplicity can be so powerful
   > the value of simplicity is that it can increase efficiency
2. Hanlon’s Razor: Don’t attribute to malice that which is explained by stupidity
   > all humans make mistakes and fall into traps of bad thinking, laziness or ignorance
   > our lives are much better when we recognize this truth and act accordingly
   > men are constrained by necessity and build up rationalizations to account for their acts
   > there are fewer true villains than people might suppose

Introducing Reads as a capsule in the Learn Segment. Each week for the remainder of the year, we’ll be extracting key takeaways and notes from 26 books read in 26 weeks as a practice to nourish learning. Join us in the (re)wiring!