Superhero Lessons in Analytics… Episode III
Probability and Consequence — Lessons from Legends of Tomorrow
Having covered both the Flash and the Arrow, it is only fitting that this installment focus on the third and newest series on the CW. Tonight will be the first season finale of Legends of Tomorrow. Unlike the other superhero series on CW, this one has struggled. As a a consequence, there is a high probability that the show will need a major reboot before season 2.
Typically, I would use this second paragraph to summarize the show and its main character. DC’s LoT is such a confused menagerie of character personalities, time traveling loops, ponderous time lord rules, and improbable consequences; that is not really possible. Fortunately, a show doesn’t have to be easy to explain or even good for us to learn something from it…
Consequence
The show’s first main theme is one of consequence. Our intrepid band of time traveling heroes… wannabe heroes is repeatedly challenged by the intricate and large unfathomable rules of time travel. These rules, which change weekly, are explained regularly by their illustrious leader Rip Hunter. They focus on the necessity of suppressing the impact of time traveling on the time line.
It is a rather ironic refrain from this Dr Who wannabe, whose professed main objective in assembling this team was to, in fact, alter the time line. As a viewer you have to accept that changing one major thing is a good idea, but numerous little things… not. This is as confusing to the viewer as it is to the team itself. For the most part, they have opted to ignore every rule… regularly.
This may seem like an inauspicious backdrop for learning, but this battle with interference and consequence is one grappled with by scientists and analysts a like. Experimental Design is a discipline which challenges our ability to learn and test while trying not interfere. It is a battle to determine consequence and attibution from often noisy data. In my experience, this often leads to marketing analytic teams that simply ignore the rules… and the consequences.
Probability
Rip Hunter’s longest standing companion, is a computer AI known as Gideon. Gideon, like the rest of the team, originally appeared on the Flash/the Arrow. Her role is one of prognosticator. Every time the time line is interfered with, Gideon provides a view of the new future and ascribes a probability for the accuracy of her projection.
While the methodology employed, the accuracy provided, and numerous other ponderous details of this activity can be debated; it is brilliantly analytical (or scientific, if you prefer). It would be far more disheartening to see the writers avoid the uncertainty. It also feeds back upon the theme of consequences.
Much like analytics, experiemental design, and the scientific method; no action on LoT results in an outcome with 100% certainty. Hell, half the team has returned from the dead since the show started. The other half did so in prior episodes of The Flash or The Arrow! From an analyst’s perspective, it would be nice if the series had approached probability a bit more thoughtfully. Given the challenges this show faces, the probability of an adjustment on that front is quite low.
CW and DC’s Legends of Tomorrow is a series with some work to do, but that should not stop us from recognizing the lessons it emphasizes on consequence and probability. Your average analyst will not likely grapple with the intricacies of time travel. But inspiration can still come from story lines of series like this.
Next Up: Lessons from NBC’s Heroes
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