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@AtlanticCouncil’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. Catalyzing a global network of digital forensic researchers, following conflicts in real time.

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Russian outlets steadily increased claims that Ukraine will start a war

@DFRLab
7 min readFeb 22, 2022

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A tank drives along a street in the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk, Ukraine, February 22, 2022. (Source: REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Methodology

Table showing the keywords used to build a database of Russian articles, including the roots (middle column) used for search queries. (Source: @EtoBuziashvili/DFRLab)
Bar graph showing the number of articles per outlet pushing the narrative “Ukraine is preparing an attack,” with RIA.ru topping the list at 47 articles. (Source: @estebanpdl/DFRLab)

Narrative proliferation

Line graph showing the number of articles per day published by the outlets, with spikes around December 10 and 21, 2021, and an escalating general frequency starting in late January 2022. (Source: @estebanpdl/DFRLab)
Word tree based on article headlines and text using the term нападения (attack). The image highlights the keywords matching the analyzed narrative. (Source: @estebanpdl/DFRLab via jasondavies.com)
Word trees, based on article headlines and text, using the terms наступления (attack, offensive) and провокация (provocations). The image highlights the keywords matching the analyzed narrative (Source: @estebanpdl/DFRLab via jasondavies.com)

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DFRLab
DFRLab

Published in DFRLab

@AtlanticCouncil’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. Catalyzing a global network of digital forensic researchers, following conflicts in real time.

@DFRLab
@DFRLab

Written by @DFRLab

@AtlanticCouncil's Digital Forensic Research Lab. Catalyzing a global network of digital forensic researchers, following conflicts in real time.

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