League of Rivals: A Response to the BRICS Expansion
When discussing international organizations in the media, BRICS is usually seen as the counterweight to the G-7. While the G-7 has seven of the nine biggest economies, including the biggest, BRICS contains the other four economies that are in the Top 11. On top of this, they have the two most populated countries, the largest country by land mass and one of the biggest energy exporters, and the largest country in Latin America. While South Africa does not measure up as well compared to the G-7 nations or their fellow members in BRICS, it is one of the most important countries on the African continent. It was also the only addition to the four original members of Brazil, Russia, India, and China… until this last week. BRICS hopes the additions will help with the goal to “reshape global governance into a “multipolar” world that puts voices of the Global South at the centre of the world agenda” (Ismail 2023). Despite this, these moves will successfully reduce the power and image of BRICS.
The new members that were added to BRICS were Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Except for Argentina, the new members either have a rivalry with another new member or were opponents in a proxy war. Egypt and Ethiopia are currently having a geopolitical crisis over the control of the Nile (Guglielmello 2023). Iran has maintained rivalries with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While the relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE are been historically friendly (Filkins 2018), they have participated on opposing sides in proxy wars (Mohammad 2023). This of course is miniscule compared to the proxy wars between the Saudis and the Iranians. While in recent years there has been hope of reconciliation between the old rivals, it is hard to dismiss forty-plus years of rivalries overnight (Wintour 2023 & Daraghi 2019). Then again, the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s friendship may be due to having the same rival; without this rival, perhaps their relationship will deteriorate (Mohammad 2023). While trying to predict the future in geopolitical is a no-win game, we will allow ourselves to say that the new members have geopolitical goals that are opposed by other new members.
Why would the BRICS accept new members who are either rivals or have conflicting interests? After a new member joins the BRICS, they would have the power to veto new members. If Egypt was invited this year and then the BRICS wanted to invite Ethiopia next year, Egypt could veto the measure. If they wanted both members, they would have to be invited at the same time (Zeihan 2023). So, Egypt and Ethiopia needed to be invited at the same time, and Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran had to join simultaneously as well. Otherwise, the members who were not included in the original expansion would be excluded from membership in the future. Along with these new rivalries, we still have to remember that China and India have their own rivalry (Donnellon-May 2023). While some analysts have questioned the impact of BRICS as an organization when it was five members (Zeihan 2023), having additional members who have internal squabbles reduces the additional impact the organization may have. Furthermore, every member added to BRICS, including South Africa, has been small compared to the G-7 or the four original members of BRICS.
As stated before, the eleven biggest economies, according to both the IMF and World Bank, are either in the G-7 or BRICS. The only country not in the top 11 was South Africa, but it is a part of the G-20. Out of the six new members, only two members are a part of the G-20 (Saudi Arabia and Argentina). Then again, the G-20 is correlated to a large economy but does not guarantee it. Upon further inspection, only one country, Saudi Arabia, is in the top 20 for largest economies according to the IMF. While Saudi Arabia just made the top twenty, at #18, Argentina just missed the top twenty, at #23. The rest of the members have an economy between the 33rd largest, UAE, and the 58th largest, Ethiopia; with the rest of the economies ranked between 39th and 42nd. While China, India, Brazil, and Russia are important countries in the world economy, the other countries play a much smaller role (except in the oil industry).
When someone thought of BRICS a decade ago, they would think of the strongest countries outside of the “Western World”. In a decade from now, it is likely BRICS will be no more than a podium for the member states. It is generally hard to see the new nations agreeing to key points when their interests are opposed to one another. This of course ignores the possibility of future war between the new member states and additional proxy wars in the future (Guglielmello 2023). To add to the already complicated geopolitical situation, the founding members also had difficulty agreeing with each other due to conflicting interests (Zeihan 2023). With less chance of success in accomplishing anything, the only important aspect of BRICS is its image, which will also be reduced. No longer will BRICS stand for the biggest economic powers outside the G-7. It will be considered a dysfunctional group that has some of the biggest economic powers. This does not mean BRICS will dissolve tomorrow. But these additions do little to add to their goals or their image.
