Minority Representation

When you click on the “Analytics” command in DRA 2020, the “Minority Representation” section presents data that helps you assess the degree with which a map affords the opportunity for minority representation.

You’ll see three parts.

Metrics

The first part presents a pivot table of the VAP (or CVAP)¹ demographic data shown in district Statistics:

The bottom table shows what a proportional number of districts would be for each minority group given the statewide VAP (or CVAP) proportions:

• Hispanic
• Black — alone or in combination with other races
• Asian — alone or in combination with other races
• Native — American Indian and Alaska Native alone or in combination with other races
• Pacific — Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander alone or in combination with other races

The first table counts the number of districts for each group that fall into 5% buckets from starting from 35% through 60% and then over 60%. You can use this information to gauge the likely number of “opportunity-to-elect districts” for an individual minority group² and the degree to which a minority group may be unnecessarily “packed” into districts.

The “Minority” columns in both tables show the same information for all minorities combined, defined as total population minus non-Hispanic whites. The analogous buckets count the number of potential “coalition districts” where multiple minority groups might band together to elect a representative.

Rating

The second part presents the rating:

The rating computes seat probabilities³ for each category, giving full weight to opportunity-to-elect districts but discounting coalition districts by half, uses what would be a proportional numbers of seats for the different categories as benchmarks, normalizes the number of likely opportunity and coalition districts to a [0–100] scale where bigger is better, and then combines them into a single rating.⁴ The thermometer shows that rating which is further categorized below using a 5-point scale.

Notes

The notes at the bottom provide additional details:

• Majority-minority districts & VRA Section 5 preclearance — If the state’s congressional plan for the 114th Congress had one or more majority-minority districts, this note reports the details. Similarly, if some or all of the districts in a state used to have to be precleared by the Department of Justice (DOJ) under the Voting Rights Act (VRA) Section 5, that is noted.
• Additional resources — So you can do more in-depth research if you want, a final note provides a link to a report about redistricting for communities of color and lists several advocacy groups.

The disclaimer at the bottom reminds you that none of this analysis ensures compliance with the Voting Rights Act (VRA)!

Note: You can also analyze the polarization of racial & ethnic voting using the Demographic Voting Analysis feature in Advanced view.

Footnotes

1. Using the Data Selector for a map, you can choose to use voting age population (VAP) or citizen voting age population (CVAP) demographics for these analytics. VAP is the default. To keep things simple, we use VAP hereafter.
2. In her amicus brief submitted for the Bethune-Hill v. VA case which references MGGG’s Comparison of Districting Plans for the Virginia House of Delegates, Professor Moon Duchin argues that the crucial VAP range for Black’s to have an opportunity to elect representatives of their choice is 37–55%.
3. Described in Proportionality.
4. For more details and context, see Ratings: Deep Dive.