Week 1 Overvalued Players
Week 1 Overvalued Players
Week 1 Win-Now Bargains
Now that the season has started we’re going to be updating our rankings weekly, which gives us an opportunity to dive into the numbers and identify good buy and sell candidates. Each week we’ll have 3 posts each outlining some interesting overvalued, undervalued, and win-now targets for you to consider.
We’ll be taking our candidates right from the ones generated by our dashboard and only looking at 5 or so from each, so head on over there to see the full list of 25 in each category.
So let’s get started with our very first overvalued players. Keep in mind this doesn’t mean they are necessarily going to do bad this year. This is not your typical, “sell these guys because they’re going to suck”. What we’re looking for more are guys who’s combination of talent, potential, and opportunity makes them not very likely to increase in value, and far more likely to decrease.
Overvalued Players— SELL SELL SELL!
Torrey Smith, WR SF (ADP 99.7, Rank 168)
This feels like an easy one. Torrey Smith, someone who has made a career of basically under-performing fantasy expectations, once again seems to be setting people up for disappointment. With an abysmal SF receiver corps, it feels like the assumption is someone has to catch footballs, and Chip Kelly has helped a few receivers see career seasons in his offense. And this certainly isn’t wrong.
The problem with this assumption is Torrey Smith just isn’t that good. He isn’t terrible — he gets targeted fairly deep, his speed draws plenty of pass interference calls , and he had an 1,100 yard season in 2013— but with how inconsistent and influx the entire 49ers offense is, any value he provides now just doesn’t feel like it is likely to last.
According to his player page right now he’s being valued about the same as players such as Jeremy Langford, Eric Ebron, Philip Dorsett, Charles Sims, and even Josh Gordon (!)…all of whom I’d be happy to have instead as longer term fantasy prospects.
Another problem is his current ADP of 99 is even higher than his consensus redraft rank of 113, which means he isn’t even providing that great of a value if you’re trying to win right now. If I own him I’m looking to capitalize before his ADP falls, because it could potentially fall hard.
Leonte Carroo, WR MIA (ADP 80.8, Rank 145)
Carroo is not expected to do much of anything this year, buried in the depth chart behind Landry, Parker, and Stills. However people seem to have faith he‘ll have a productive career since he is being drafted in the same round as guys like Abdullah and Hill.
That being said, there is cause for pessimism about his future. His spike in value is likely the result of a combination of Parker’s nagging injuries and rookie hope. The reality is, despite his talent, his role in that offense for the foreseeable future is murky at best, and it’s unlikely the team will be giving up on Parker any time soon. He could fall to at least his ranking (145) if not further this season, so it’s not a terrible time to unload.
You hate to give up on rookies, and you definitely shouldn’t sell him for too cheap, but with how reactionary fantasy football is it seems far more likely his value will drop over the season.
Markus Wheaton, WR PIT (ADP 120.1, Rank 179)
Markus Wheaton has a really great opportunity right now. He looked good down the stretch in 2015, and with Bryant out this is a chance for him to step into a major role and make a bit of a name for himself before he is due for a new contract.
The problem is he just isn’t that great of a player to make a long term commitment to. Every year we see mediocre players with great opportunities come up short, and even if Wheaton does have a good year, he would have to be really good to keep his job if Bryant comes back.
His ranking of 179 is probably due to his lack of job stability beyond 2016, and I have to agree. Wheaton’s current 10th round ADP is likely a function of his spot as the WR2 in Pittsburgh super effective passing offense. But in dynasty we really want to invest in great talents, because — as Wheaton may soon find out — players don’t always get great opportunities that allow them to possibly outplay their ceilings. Wheaton just doesn’t feel like that.
If Wheaton is unspectacular, he falls. If Bryant comes back, he falls. If he doesn’t sign with the Steelers, he falls (how confident do you feel in Wheaton on [insert team here]). Basically there is a lot of room for him to fall back towards his rank, or even further, and as such he’s a guy I’d be looking to sell. Guys like DeAndre Washington, Nelson Agholor, and even 2017 2nd round picks are all things I’d be more than happy to have for him. Give me the potential and upside of those assets instead of what feels like an inevitable decline here.
That being said, he does stand a chance to improve if he comes out strong, but ultimately it feels like you’re playing with fire. I can’t see it lasting.
Kamar Aiken, WR BAL (ADP 87.7, Rank 144)
Kamar Aiken’s ADP rose over 60 spots between this past June and July. That right away should set off alarms for a 27 year old player who has had an unspectacular career up until this point.
If we think about what may have caused this rise, it’s likely in no small part due to them not bringing in any other big receivers and Perriman still struggling to get on the field. These factors combined with some decent talent have inflated his ADP to an uncomfortable amount higher than his ranking.
Aiken is definitely a decent depth guy. Last year he showed some potential, and he could see a similar amount of targets and receptions in 2016. The problem is beyond 2016, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll have a career worth investing a 7th round draft pick in. It’s more likely he is replaced or diminished in the near future by another young draft pick, a big name free agent, or even by Perriman himself. And that is bleak on a run heavy team like the Ravens.
In fact, even looking at his relatively successful 2015 one needs to be cautious. Remember the Ravens prefer to run the ball, and 2015’s passing game was probably more of an anomaly than the expectation. Fewer opportunities and more competition don’t leave a lot room for a 27 year old with 159 career targets to grow in value. Far more likely he’ll fall, and you never want to be the guy holding when that happens.
Be careful — Kamar does have some win-now potential, and so don’t be afraid to hold him if he is going to fill a depth spot for your team. However you could find yourself getting some solid pieces in the future at his current value. Guys like Ertz and Dixon stand out in this range. I would have personally loved to grab a mid-to-late 2016 pick as well, though at this point it’s probably too late for that. If you sell him to a win-now team it isn’t out of the question to get a 2017 1st, especially if he has a strong start.
Willie Snead, WR NO (ADP 77.5, Rank 124)
Let’s not sugar coat it. Willie Snead had a very good 2015. It isn’t easy to convince people a 23 year old player in a high-octane passing offense coming off a 984 yard season is a sell candidate; but gosh darnit that’s exactly what I’m here to do.
This isn’t entirely a knock on Snead. He looked good and was used in creative ways that had him often lining up against favorable match-ups with linebackers and safeties. This is more a function of a) the increasingly crowded Saints WR corps, b) Brees being on the back end of his career, and c) him not being a particularly special player.
While he should have some opportunity still, having to play with Cooks, Fleener, and now Michael Thomas means those opportunities could quickly become limited, which means the previously relatively unknown Snead could fall back into obscurity. At his current ADP of 77, there doesn’t seem like a ton of opportunity to increase in value — but a hell of a lot of chance to fall.
It may be unfair to point out his past, but it’s something to consider when looking at this from a value perspective and deciding if he’s more likely to rise or fall:
- He was an UDFA signed by the Browns who couldn’t stay on the team
- He unsuccessfully tried out for the Giants before joining Carolina’s practice squad
- He joined the Saints practice squad
- He finally showed what he could do last year with 69 receptions for 984 yards and 3 touchdowns
The end sounds more like a feel good story than a cautionary tale, but it’s something to consider when you’re holding a guy with 6th round start up value. You could gamble that he is the real deal and will continue to thrive despite the competition and odds seemingly rising against him, but I think I’d probably be selling if I can get his current value.
I’d love to get a 2017 1st for him, though at his value I’d also be happy with someone like Jameis Winston, TJ Yeldon, or even Marvin Jones.
