Week 1 Undervalued Players
Week 1 Undervalued Players
Week 1 Win-Now Bargains
Now that the season has started we’re going to be updating our rankings weekly, which gives us an opportunity to dive into the numbers and identify good buy and sell candidates. Each week we’ll have 3 posts each outlining some interesting overvalued, undervalued, and win-now targets for you to consider.
We’ll be taking our candidates right from the ones generated by our dashboard and only looking at a few notables from each, so head on over there to see the full list of 25 in each category.
This is a look at Week 1’s undervalued players. Keep in mind this is difficult to accurately gauge since none of these guys have taken a single regular season snap in 2016 yet. However these will be players who, based on their off season ADP, are good guys to keep an eye on or consider buying if you can get them at their current ADP.
Let me emphasize that none of the people being looked at in this series should be bought or sold at any costs, but specifically should be bought if you can get them at their current market price. Do not overpay or undersell these players, but look to buy or sell them at their current values.
Someone yesterday compared this to playing penny stocks, and I think that is an excellent comparison. Those pennies can add up in dynasty if you’re capitalizing on opportunity. Let’s get started!
Undervalued Players
Jimmy Graham, TE SEA (ADP 153, Rank 98)
Jimmy Graham has broken a lot of hearts over the past few seasons. Just 3 years ago people were taking him in the 1st round (he went #1 overall in one of my start ups!). Now he is lucky to be going in the 12th, and with Seattle being very secretive about his chances of starting week 1, people seem to continue to be wary about his chances of being a reliable, consistent, well utilized, and uninjured asset ever again.
Just to put it into perspective, guys being taken well ahead of Graham in start ups include Martellus Bennett and Gary Barnidge…and he’s only being taken 4 spots before Antonio Gates!
Let’s not dance around it — Graham suffered a very serious injury. Between his injury, his time missed last season, fewer targets in the Seattle offense, and his missed camp time, you shouldn’t expect another 1,200 yard 16TD season from him.
However Graham is still an elite athlete, and at 29 depending on how well he heals he still has a handful of productive years ahead of him at a position where guys seem to be able to stick around. Furthermore, the Seahawks did not bring him in to average 6 TD-less targets a game — if he’s healthy, he’ll get redzone looks, which make his ADP of 153 a bargain. For perspective, thats a late 2nd round pick.
Martavis Bryant, WR PIT (ADP 130, Rank 80)
Patience pays off. We know Bryant won’t play all of 2016. For good reason, that has taken a chunk out of his value.
However, for those willing to snatch him up and play the waiting game, he could prove to be a significant investment opportunity. Consider this — one year ago he was going around 58. Not enough? By November of last year he was going at 28, around the likes of Jarvis Landry.
The guy has elite size and talent and one of the best opportunities in the league — he just seems to struggle not to squander it because of, well, weed.
That’s not to say he is a sure thing. He seems to have serious issues with depression, so there is a chance he may not be able to get everything together and stay on the field. Furthermore, the Steelers may not be willing to keep putting up with his off-field issues and could decide to move on from him.
But at his current cost of a 2nd round pick, the chance to get a guy who everyone agrees is 2nd or 3rd round start up talent is too tempting to pass up. Unlike other guys who are more products of their opportunity and lack of competition (i.e. Torrey Smith, Kamar Aiken), Bryant is talented enough to hold value even if Pittsburgh moves on from him.
At the very least, look for his value to spike immediately if he is reinstated, at which point if you aren’t confident you can still move him for a profit. Just look at Josh Gordon.
Melvin Gordon, RB SD (ADP 73, Rank 44)
It’s probably getting a little late for this one, but if you can still get him for a Marvin Jones/Stefon Diggs/late 2017 1st, I’d still be trying to get him.
Remember, a year ago Gordon was an elite guy coming into a high powered offense and was being taken at either 2nd or 3rd in a decent rookie draft. After a down year where not only did he struggle, but had to run behind an awful and injured offensive line, his value plummeted. All he needs is a few good games for this 23 year old back to jump back up in value.
He seems prime to do it — in addition to looking very good in preseason, he is now behind a healthier and slightly improved line, and still part of a high octane Rivers-led offense. Plus he was a first round pick in the actual NFL draft, which means the team is not likely to just give up on him any time soon after spending so much capital.
Don’t overpay, but if you can get him at a reasonable price I’d expect him to be worth more this time next year.
