Trump Country Update: Trump Approval Bounces Back, 66% Favor DACA Deal

Since March, we’ve been polling what we call Trump Country — the 550 counties that flipped from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, or where Trump greatly improved on Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012. We’re continuing the series with a look at the latest numbers from September. The results from this month’s survey suggest that the overall decline in favorability for Donald Trump and the Republican party may be slowing down or even reversing when compared with previous months.

Currently, 52% of Trump Country voters believe that the country is on the wrong track while 35% believe that we’re headed in the right direction. The results are basically unchanged from last month, when 54% believed the country was on the wrong track and 34% thought we were headed in the right direction.

However, President Trump’s overall job approval has significantly improved since August. Last month, 50% of Trump Country voters disapproved of his performance while 43% approved. In September, the difference narrowed to an even 46–46% split. These changes are largely due to increased support from Republicans: in August only 76% of GOP voters approved of the President’s performance. This month 84% indicated approval, an eight point improvement.

Similarly, we find the standing of Republican congressional candidates has also improved. Republicans have a four point lead on the generic Congressional ballot, receiving 42% to the Democrats’ 38%. Last month the Democrats led 42–40%.

Additionally, we asked Trump Country about its views on President Trump’s proposed deal with Congressional Democrats to protect DACA recipients from deportation -

“President Trump is considering making a deal with Democrats in Congress to protect young adults who were brought to the US illegally as children from deportation. Democrats have agreed to increased border security in exchange, but not funding for President Trump’s proposed border wall. Based on what you’ve heard, would you say you support or oppose this deal?”

Two-thirds of Trump Country voters said they supported the deal, including 61% of Republicans and 60% of self-identified conservatives, with broad support across every demographic.

Explore the toplines and crosstabs for September’s Trump Country survey, and contact us to add a question to the October survey.