MathBox Tells It Like It Is — Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings based on Machine Learning

No holds barred takes on Week 9 Studs and Duds, Streamers and Busts, Minuses and Plus — Machine learning projections in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the 2019 NFL season

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At Fantasy Outliers, we believe that machine learning combined with human expertise leads to better results than either by itself. While some of these projections may seem odd, outlandish even, most of the time, MathBox has a reason for its decisions — and beat ESPN for likely starters (also, tied Vegas in predicting game winners).

That said, the machine learning models are focused on relevant players, so projections are less accurate for benchwarmers. Also, situational things come up, which require folks like you and me to adjust some of the models’ projections every week.

These models are projecting using DraftKings PPR scoring, which is a little higher on average than ESPN PPR scoring — so keep that in mind when making comparisons between the two

Okay, let’s get to it…

Quarterback Rankings based on Machine Learning

• We already predicted Jimmy Garoppolo would have a good week, and suggested may have more in the future.
• Matthew Stafford is projected at #2 this week versus the Oakland Raiders forgiving defense (owned in 85% of leagues)
• MathBox isn’t afraid of the Patriots defense when it comes to Lamar Jackson

Week 9 Quarterback ranks

Running Back — Rankings in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• Ezekiel Elliott leads the pack with 28.7 projected opportunities this week. He will eat!
• Sony Michel possibly a good DFS play in DraftKings this week with 16.1 projected points, 21.8 opportunities and a lowish 348.3 cost per point for that volume running back
• MathBox hasn’t given up on Le’veon Bell yet predicting a good game this week against Miami Dolphins porous defense.

Week 9 Running Back ranks DraftKings PPR

Week 9 Running Back ranks ESPN Standard

Wide Receiver — Rankings in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• We’re buying the Deshaun Watson — DeAndre Hopkins stack this week, projecting them at #1 and #2 overall in DraftKings PPR scoring. Hopkins has a very high +1.4 points per opportunity versus other wide receivers — suggesting he’s going to get the most out of his targets.
• Julian Edelman at 22.6 points (8.7 opportunities) is over 5 points higher than ESPN’s projection of 17.3.
• MathBox is high on Sterling Shepherd this week at 17.7 vs ESPN’s 12.4 points. At a low 284.6 cost per point, he could be a good DFS play if this hits.
• MathBox has Mike Evans (WR #3, 21.5 PPR) and Chris Godwin (WR# 9, 19.4 PPR) as a great duo in PPR and Standard (WR #3 14.5 Std; WR #8 12.6 Std, respectively) scoring this week against a reasonably good Seahawks fantasy pass defense

Week 9 Wide Receiver ranks DraftKings PPR

Week 9 Wide Receiver ranks Standard

Tight End — Rankings in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• MathBox loves Eric Ebron this week and going forward. Consider picking him up if he’s available.
• Our models are also high on Jimmy Graham this week at 10.8 pts vs ESPN’s 7.8, so he’s possibly a fill in if you’re TE needy
• MathBox isn’t afraid of the Patriots crazy good defense when it comes to Mark Andrews, projecting him at #4 TE with 14.3 points, and a solid 7.5 opportunities

Week 9 Tight End ranks DraftKings PPR

Week 9 Tight End ranks ESPN Standard scoring

Defense/Special Teams Rankings based on Machine Learning

• Consider picking up the Minnesota Vikings if someone hasn’t already, especially if Patrick Mahomes doesn’t play
• Consider picking up the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos— potentially good matchups this week against the Giants and Browns, respectively. But our Team-based projections have reasonably high point projections for their opponents, so maybe these are counting on some turnovers, sacks, etc.
• The Philadelphia Eagles may be in a low ceiling/high floor situation as our Team-based projections have the Chicago Bears at ~19 points this week

Week 16 Defense/Special Teams ranks

Kicker Rankings based on Machine Learning

• I picked up Dan Bailey in my main league this week. If he hits, it’s easy points!

Week 9 Kicker ranks

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Performance analysis:

• Can machine learning help improve your fantasy football draft — Comparison of Fantasy Outliers’ yearly models’ 2017 fantasy football draft performance versus ESPN and Expert Consensus Rankings
• How Artificial Intelligence (AI) beat ESPN in Fantasy Football — Summary of results of Fantasy Outliers’ weekly predictive models vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL regular season
• We Tied Vegas in Our First Attempt at Predicting NFL Game Winners Using Machine Learning — How Raw, Unedited Machine Learning Models With Information Known Early in the Week Tied Final Vegas Game Winner Projections and the Spread

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