Waiver-Wire-a-Week-Ahead Advice for Fantasy Football Week 14 based on Machine Learning

Fantasy Outliers’ takes on fantasy football rostering decisions in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the upcoming week through the rest of the season

To dig into our raw, unadjusted projections for Week 14 through the remainder of the 2018 NFL season, go to our Glorious Google Sheet. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Our Waiver Wire Opportunity metric crosses Next-4-Week point projections against percent ownership in ESPN leagues, and normalizes within position.

We’ve found this metric to be helpful so far this year. While many people have already had their main waiver wire selections this week, a lot of these players may still be available — or simply may be folks to keep an eye on going forward.

These selections aren’t necessarily ‘must pickups’, but rather, players who have an imbalance in Next-4-Week projections relative to percent ownership — even if they are highly owned or have relatively low point projections. So use your best judgment.

If you’re looking for our Week 14 rankings, go here instead.

Quarterback — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Dak Prescott has bounced back and forth between ~15 point and 20+ point games for the past six weeks. Good news is, if he keeps following this pattern, he’s due for a 20+ point game at home this week with a good matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles
• Marcus Mariota has been killing it in the past 5 games, 4 of which were above 20 points (and the remaining game where he scored 3, we’ll give him a mulligan). Medium-tier matchup this week against the Jaguars.

Week 14 Quarterback Waiver Wire Opportunity (unedited), based on Machine Learning

Running Back — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• You’ve heard plenty about Gus Edwards already. He’s still available in 30% of leagues, so it’s worth a look
• Peyton Barber and Doug Martin could be low-end flex plays or roster fillers going forward at roughly 12 points a game in the next four weeks

Week 14 raw, unedited RB waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Wide Receiver — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• Adam Humphries has a great matchup this week at home versus New Orleans Saints who have given up the most points to wide receivers this year. At ~13.5 points per week (in PPR) for the rest of the year and 41% ownership, he’s worth a roster spot
• Mohamed Sanu could be a low-tier flex option going forward with a good matchup this week versus Green Bay

Week 14 raw, unedited WR waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Tight End — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• Vance McDonald is projected at roughly ~10 points per game going forward and is worth rostering if you’re desperate at the tight end position (or need a decent backup)

Week 14 raw, unedited TE waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Defense/Special Teams — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• The Detroit Lions defense in Weeks 14 and 15 has good matchups against the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills
• Buffalo Bills, conversely, have good matchups against the Jets and Lions. Could these teams help get sneaky points in the playoffs? You be the judge.

Week 14 raw, unedited D/ST waiver wire opportunity, based on machine learning

Kicker — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Brandon McManus is Mathbox’s #1 Kicker this week with a ‘good matchup’ against the 49ers
• Other guys on this list are worth a look if you’re desperate

Week 14 raw, unedited K waiver wire opportunity, based on machine learning

If you’re looking for our Week 14 rankings article, go here instead.

To dig into our raw, unadjusted projections for Week 14 through the remainder of the 2018 NFL season, go to our Glorious Google Sheet.

Performance analysis:

• Can machine learning help improve your fantasy football draft — Comparison of Fantasy Outliers’ yearly models’ 2017 fantasy football draft performance versus ESPN and Expert Consensus Rankings
• How Artificial Intelligence (AI) beat ESPN in Fantasy Football — Summary of results of Fantasy Outliers’ weekly predictive models vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL regular season
• We Tied Vegas in Our First Attempt at Predicting NFL Game Winners Using Machine Learning — How Raw, Unedited Machine Learning Models With Information Known Early in the Week Tied Final Vegas Game Winner Projections and the Spread

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