FPL Gameweek 20: Running out of titles

Tom Thomas
FPL Analytics
Published in
5 min readJan 30, 2021
Photo: Sadio Mane celebrates scoring a goal; source: France24

The Gameweek started off fairly boring, if I must say, with a couple of draws but then picked up. Clear standout winner for FPL managers being anyone who had West Ham, Burnley, Liverpool, or Manchester City. Manchester City, being the standout candidate with 5 goals. Last week, we almost splurged on İlkay Gündoğan but went for Bukayo Saka instead. Not a bad replacement as he too scored 13 points. Gündoğan, on the other hand got 14 points with 2 goals as well. The man just can’t be stopped at the moment.

Note: Harry Kane faces a lengthy spell out with what seems like injury to both his ankles so remember to replace him from your teams, an issue we’re facing at the moment.

Sadio Mané was someone who also seemed to return to form and it maybe a good time to replace Mohammed Salah with the high-flying Senegalese.

Gameweek 20 Results | ID 4749795 FantasyBall

Gameweek 20 FPL Data Team Results; source: FPL

A poor return for our usual savior Harry Kane, with him and Son combining for a goal which was then disallowed due to the offside rule. Subbing Mendy was not a wise move either but we were not sure how Chelsea would perform under new coach Thomas Tuchel.

Timo Werner was not even selected in the team so he maybe one to replace too. No analysis this week either.

Gameweek 21 Selections

We have 1 free transfer. Ideally, we would have left this week go with no changes but with Harry Kane’s injury on our shoulders, we have no choice but to transfer out.

Current Highest form for players 20/21 ; source: FPL

So taking a look at the data, we know that we need a forward for sure. The only question is do we add more transfers to take the hit.

Gameweek 21,22, & 23 Schedule; source: FPL

Taking a look at the schedule, we can see that certain teams have an easier run-in compared to others.

The one’s that stand out are:

  • Chelsea: Burnley (H), Spurs (A), and Sheffield Utd (A)
  • Man Utd: Arsenal (A), Southampton (H), and Everton (H)
  • Liverpool: West Ham (A), Brighton (H), and Man City (H)
  • Everton: Newcastle (H), Leeds (A), and Man Utd (A)
  • Man City: Sheffield Utd (H), Burnley (A), and Liverpool (A)
  • Leicester: Leeds (H), Fulham (A), and Wolves (A)

Let’s compare these with the list of the players in highest form.

İlkay Gündoğan sticks out again like a unicorn. We cannot miss out on him this week. So we may consider replacing a midfielder as well.

However, of these teams above, few have capable forwards. Man Utd have Cavani but he has not solidified the starting spot yet and they face Arsenal this week. Liverpool have Firmino but he never scores. Everton do have Calvert-Lewin and he is worth considering despite his poor form. Man City has Jesus but it’s a similar story to Firmino. Leicester’s talisman is out.

Interestingly, we do have Werner failing to perform and we do know that Tammy Abraham missed out on the starting line-up last week despite scoring a hat-trick in the game before. This maybe our chance to nab him and score some valuable points. In the list of just forwards and realvalue, he still ranks pretty highly.

Current Highest realvalue for forwards 20/21 ; source: FPL

Callum Wilson and Ollie Watkins do rate highly too so they are some other options.

So this is what we will do.

We’re going to take out Harry Kane and replace him with Ollie Watkins. We will monitor how Calvert Lewin and Tammy Abraham perform this week.
We’re also going to take out Jarred Bowen, not because he’s doing bad but simply because we have too many West Ham players and removing him allows the possibility of bringing in Mikhail Antonio in the coming weeks.
We will keep Werner in again (sigh), and hope for the umpteenth time that this is his turning point.
We wont splurge on one more player this week as we need the rest of the midfield. If one of the starting 11 fails to perform this week, we can splurge in for an expensive midfielder such as Fernandes or Mane.

Gameweek 21 Team

Gameweek 21 FPL Data Team; source: FPL

Thank you for taking your time to read through this. If you’d like to follow along in this series, here is a timeline of the FPL data analytics project.
1. Introduction
2. Gameweek 1
3. Gameweek 2
4. Gameweek 3
5. Gameweek 4
6. Gameweek 5–8
7. Gameweek 9–10
8. Gameweek 12–13
9. Gameweek 14
10. Gameweek 15
11. Gameweek 16
12. Gameweek 17
13. Gameweek 18
14. Gameweek 19

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And there we go! Hope you enjoyed reading this piece as much as I did writing it. I’m always working on improving my work flow and my articles as time goes on so I appreciate all comments! Collaborating is fun so if you’ve got any interesting projects in mind or even if you’ve got any constructive feedback or just want to connect, feel free to reach out to me personally @__tomthomas

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Tom Thomas
FPL Analytics

Exploring all things ML through applications that are interesting to me.