Monaco: Title Implications
The Grand Procession
I’m not a fan of Monaco. For me, a racetrack needs high speeds and overtaking opportunities and Monaco fails dramatically on both counts, reducing the ‘race’ to a procession. However, the mobile traffic jam did throw up some interesting title implications.
Verstappen 6th
Early on this season it was looking ominously like a repetition of the total dominance Verstappen inflicted on spectators in 2023. But it didn’t take long for chinks in the Red Bull armour to appear.
Australia saw the champion retire due to a reliability failure but even before then he had appeared vulnerable to Sainz’s Ferrari. The Prancing Horse had nailed their setup early on (efficiency and competency seem much improved this year) while Red Bull had struggled to do likewise.
We have since seen similar episodes of Red Bull weakness. Verstappen drove brilliantly to overcome this in Imola, lost out to Norris in Miami before that, and (in Monaco) was behind all the Ferraris and McLarens, in addition to Russell. Perez, meanwhile has recent results of 4th, 8th, and DNF.
On tight tracks, the Red Bull is looking eminently beatable, and the difference between Verstappen and Perez is pretty stark right now. The Mexican started off the season well but has not troubled the podium lately. While he did botch Monaco qualifying things were very close, and it’s worth remembering the McLaren and Ferrari upgrades have put them in real contention for race wins, but Perez’s seat is once again looking vulnerable.
Norris and Leclerc — Title Contenders?
I wrote not too long ago about Norris and his title prospects so I’ll just briefly update that here. He had a decent Monaco to finish 4th but was outshone by Piastri, who nabbed 2nd. Nevertheless, he narrowed the gap to Verstappen, which is a hefty 56 points. While the McLaren was second best to Ferrari in Monaco, elsewhere it’s looked a step above and, over the course of the season, I still think Norris will trouble Verstappen the most. Ironically, this could potentially help the Dutchman.
If the Briton and Monegasque take points off each other this will make it harder for either Norris or Leclerc to claim the title. However, if they’re also continually pushing Verstappen down the order rather than him only being beaten by one of them at some races and the other of them at other times then his hefty points lead might yet evaporate.
Leclerc was a lucky chap to be spared the stress of the solitary pit stop expected in Monaco. This takes nothing away from his excellent driving, which put him on pole then secured the win (although it did make the race even more boring than usual). Right now he’s 25 points ahead of Norris and just 31 off Verstappen, with around two-thirds of the season to go. The first eight races have seen four different winners, from three teams.
At Singapore, I’m expecting Ferrari to also be impressive, and wouldn’t be surprised if we had a repeat of the Monaco result. However, for Ferrari, and McLaren, how they measure up on faster circuits (Silverstone, Spa, Monza etc) will be crucial. Red Bull/Verstappen have won five of the first eight races, and their weaknesses have been most evident on slow street circuits. When things are faster, if they retain their advantage, they remain in a good position to win another title for Verstappen.
However, the major updates for McLaren and Ferrari only came recently, and since then Verstappen’s been slightly on the back foot. In the last three Grands Prix, Verstappen has amassed 51 points, Leclerc has won 55 points, and Norris 55 points. That looks pretty tasty.
Ferrari for the Constructors
I think Ferrari are favourites now to be the top team come the season’s conclusion. While Sainz bounced back brilliantly from surgery to claim the win in Australia he has not quite been on Leclerc’s level, yet has been fast enough to be top five every time he’s raced.
I rate Piastri highly but right now he can’t quite match Norris, making Leclerc/Sainz the best pairing on the grid. And the gap from Ferrari to Red Bull is small (the former are on 252, the latter 276). Given how close it now is between Verstappen, Norris, and Leclerc, and how well-matched the Ferrari pair are compared to a lopsided Red Bull lineup, I think there’s a great chance for Ferrari to claim the title.
McLaren are on 184 points, putting them almost 100 behind Red Bull.
Points for Albon
It’s also worth noting Monaco, surprisingly, was the first time this season Albon scored points. He finished in 9th to grab a precious pair of points, which ties Williams with Alpine but puts them ahead in the order. After two 11th places and a 12th, Albon and Williams must be relieved. It’s ironic this success came on a slow circuit with no straight, in a car famous for being slippery, but nice to see them finally crack into the top 10.
Magnussen Penalty Points
Penalty points. Rack up 12 and you get a race ban. This is how silly driving, dangerous behaviour, and repeat offenders are punished. It is also a theoretical concept that does not survive contact with reality, in much the same way Perez and Hulkenberg’s race in Monaco did not survive contact with Kevin Magnussen.
The Dane was on 10 points. He drove into a closing gap, tapping and then T-boning Perez and reducing his Red Bull to scrap, with the added bonus of taking out his own team mate as collateral damage. And the penalty points he received? Zero. Because those who decide these things are afraid of imposing a race ban and enforcing their own rules. This is ridiculous, especially given Alonso received 3 points recently for the merest touch on Sainz.
Richard
