A Southern bellwether: What to expect from South Carolina’s primary
A Biden rebound? Here’s what to watch for in the last early-voting state.
With Super Tuesday right around the corner, South Carolina’s momentum is a coveted clinch that candidates want to ride. That and no Democratic candidate has won the nomination without the Palmetto State’s support since 2004. So with all eyes looking south Saturday, here’s what to expect.
Joe Biden
Biden’s big day, some may say. After disappointing results from the first three states, former Vice President Joe Biden is hoping for a significant surge in South Carolina. Something he should see: he’s been “sitting pretty” on top of most polls querying the state, including a Monmouth University one released Thursday which showed a 20% lead for the former VP on his nearest contender, Senator Bernie Sanders.
Why’s he so popular there? Apart from a history of Obama-era supporters (which he came to in solace during his New Hampshire let down), he’s currently the candidate of choice for black voters, who made up 61% of the state’s primary electorate in 2016. That, coupled with a bounce-back debate performance and South Carolina’s U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s coveted endorsement, positions him to place well in the primary.
Bernie Sanders
With the most delegates under his belt, Bernie boasted a boost in South Carolina this week, encroaching on Biden’s big lead across polls and knocking investor Tom Steyer out of second, according to a RealClearPolitics average.
Mere momentum might’ve moved him, but a candidate who can oust President Donald Trump remains a priority in South Carolina — 66% of Monmouth-poll respondents said that is more important than lining up on any policy issue — meaning more and more voters are willing to leave their favorites behind if it marks a more united Democratic front approaching November.
Tom Steyer
Currently delegate-less, the billionaire needs some Southern love to stay viable. And he could get it: He sits right under Sanders across recent polls in South Carolina. This is thanks to his multi-platform advertising campaign which he’s poured more than $13 million into, accounting for 70% of ad spending in the state, according to a recent ISS/Facing South analysis.
Steyer also has the largest on-the-ground campaign there with over 100 staffers. And, second to Biden, he is favored by the African-American community. He’s been donating to black business and pitching ads on climate change geared toward black voters.
Pete Buttigieg
The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor is not expecting to do well in South Carolina, given that he hasn’t budged into the top three across polls — except for an Emerson College one released Thursday, which has him tied with Steyer at 11% — despite his recent Iowa-win confirmation. Not surprising, as he’s not polled well with diverse electors even when calling for their support, something that will not serve Buttigieg well with Super Tuesday’s heavy hitters either.
Elizabeth Warren
Although her Nevada debate performance boosted her nationally, the Massachusetts senator’s South Carolina support network has not been strong. Warren’s most recent debate presence was not one to remember amid the noise and John Legend’s stumping for her there slipped between national news cracks. But she’s sticking it out until the convention and should see more love from California on Tuesday.
Amy Klobuchar
The Minnesota senator is still kicking, although sitting in the single digits in every poll of the state this week. She’ll likely walk away with nothing from South Carolina, another Nevada-esque blow to try to come back from on Super Tuesday.
Tulsi Gabbard
… is still here. If she doesn’t place better than the candidates who dropped out in South Carolina, the congresswoman could end her campaign soon.
Former Mayor of New York Mike Bloomberg will not be on South Carolina’s ballot. Look for him on Super Tuesday.
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