Why Climate Change is Solvable
Climate doomism is counter-productive, scientifically inaccurate, and promotes anxiety and inaction
Doom-Porn is a Distraction
Amidst record-breaking heatwaves, wildfires, a global pandemic, floods, hurricanes, and ice caps melting at an accelerated pace it is easy to get caught up in the wave of doom-porn surrounding climate change that seems to be sweeping the Internet these days.
I recently read an article entitled “Want to Stop Climate Change? Get a New Job!” in which the author argues that none of the current solutions including degrowth, carbon taxes, minimalism, veganism, and population reduction, among others will work because they require people to choose against their desires and they require leaders to rise above the system to make changes that are good for the planet.
The author argues that the only way to solve climate change is for all of us to get new jobs that create renewable energy, otherwise, we are all part of the problem.
Others take a more fatalistic point of view. For example in an article for the New Yorker, author Jonathan Franzen said “We literally are living in end times for civilization as we know it… We are long past the point of averting climate catastrophe.”
So is all of this doom and gloom warranted? Yes, we are facing some extreme challenges and things are likely to get worse before they get better, but are we as Franzen says “Living in the end of times?”
In this article, I argue that climate doomism is overly simplistic, unscientific, and based on suppositions, not facts or data. It also shows a lack of understanding of the complexity of climate change and a lack of acknowledgment of the solutions being implemented and the changes that are occurring.
According to Michael E. Mann, arguably the most prominent climate scientist on the planet, “If the science objectively demonstrated it was too late to limit warming below catastrophic levels, that would be one thing and we scientists would be faithful to that. But science doesn’t say that.”
Climate Doomism
Climate doomisim is just as bad as denialism as it leads to inaction. After all, what’s the point in eating less meat, flying less, or taking public transport if our demise is imminent? We might as well throw a giant house party in one last hurrah if we are going the way of the dodo bird anyway.
While I am not saying that extinction isn’t a possibility, if we do nothing, the likelihood goes from a possibility to an inevitability if we sit around saying “we’re all doomed.” Subscribing to this fatalistic view also leads to anxiety, and an anxious mind has a harder time solving problems.
Climate doom doesn’t make you smart, it doesn’t make you cool, it makes you an even bigger part of the problem. Because it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Henry Ford famously said, “Whether you think you can, or you think you can’t you’re right.” If you spend enough time with a climate doomer, their attitude will infect you as well, this is known as emotional contagion, and left unchecked it can spread like a virus, and lead to climate apathy.
Solutions Evolve
Reducing meat consumption, population reduction, carbon taxes, minimalism, and degrowth are not meant to be stand-alone solutions to climate change. Rather they are meant to be contributing factors to solving a very big and complex puzzle. Implementing them will buy us time until new technology, changes in social norms, and a better understanding of how nature works can offer us more complete solutions.
Eating Less Meat Can Have a Huge Impact
For example, studies show that If everyone went vegan, only a quarter of current farmland would be needed. However, it is unrealistic to expect the whole world to quit eating meat, so what if we just reduced our consumption of meat and cheese?
Skipping a steak just once a week with your family would reduce emissions equivalent to taking your car off the road for nearly three months. If the entire U.S. did not eat meat or cheese for just one day a week: We’d reduce emissions equivalent to not driving 91 billion miles — the same as taking 7.6 million cars off the road.
What if we didn’t give up all meat but just the worst culprits like beef and lamb? According to a study by the World Resources Institute, this would lead to a per capita food and land use-related greenhouse gas emissions reduction of between 15 and 35 percent by 2050. Going vegetarian could reduce those per capita emissions by half. It would also reduce deforestation while supporting biodiversity, which would have a synergistic effect.
The point is that we don’t have to solve climate change all at once. We need to slow it down to give technology and society enough time to evolve. Solving climate change will not be an event, it will be a process that takes place over decades and some of the solutions that are being proposed today will age out, as nascent technologies mature to take their place.
For example, if we cut down on our meat consumption now, by 2035 it’s projected that “alternative meats,” which include cell and plant-based meats, will be a $290 billion industry making up to 22% of the market share. If we put a sin tax on industrially grown meat to make producers pay for their negative externalities, this would speed up the mass adoption of alternative meats even more, allowing people to have their steak and eat it too, so to speak.
Some Things to Be Hopeful About
Society is Changing
In a new report, experts from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and sustainability-focused investing group Blue Horizon show that creating alternative proteins reduced emissions the most per dollar spent. Plant-based proteins were three times more cost-effective than sustainable cement and nearly 15 times more efficient than green power. The researchers called alternative proteins “one of the low-hanging fruit in the fight against climate change.”
Some might say that people won’t cut down on meat and dairy, but the data says otherwise.
A 2018 survey from Johns Hopkins claims that two-thirds of Americans are already cutting down on their meat consumption. A 2021 survey shows that more than 47% of Americans see themselves as flexitarians who are trying to eat a more plant-based diet and it’s even higher (54%) in those aged 18–39.
The same thing is happening in Europe where almost one-third no longer consider themselves to be full-time meat-eaters and it’s projected that 25% of the UK population will be vegan or vegetarian by 2025.
The Tipping Point for Social Movements
Coincidentally studies show that it takes just 25% of a population for a social movement to reach a tipping point to establish a new norm. The researchers point to recent legal and societal shifts in workplace sexual harassment, gay marriage, gun laws, racism, and gender equality as evidence that social norms do change.
A 2021 survey from the Pew Research Center shows that 80% of people are willing to make changes to how they work and live to reduce the effects of global climate change, which means we are already well past this tipping point and the evidence is showing that behaviors are starting to change.
For example, net emissions have been dropping in most developed economies including some of the largest CO2 emitters such as the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom, where total emissions have been falling since 2005. In high-income countries the overall fall has been about 18%, in the US it was 18.4% but the UK has seen an almost 45% drop.
These drops have occurred without aggressive climate policies. Rather they have come mainly from improved technology which has led to greater energy efficiency and a shift away from coal-fired electricity generation to natural gas and renewables. Just think about how much quicker this can happen if our leaders and communities took a more aggressive approach to climate activism.
The Tipping Point for Mass Adoption of Technology
Another important tipping point we have surpassed is for mass adoption of EVs, wind, solar and batteries. History shows us that for a disruptive technology to become mainstream it takes between 3–5% of the market share to be accepted. This has been true for the adoption of cars, mobile phones, and electric lighting among other things.
The data shows us that the US, China, and Europe have all surpassed the 5% threshold for EVs. In 2021 wind and solar made up 10% of global energy, which also puts us far past the tipping point. With solar growing by 23% over the year before and wind growing by 14%.
Renewables Are Getting Cheaper
Part of the reason for the increase is because of the massive decline in the cost of producing solar panels, which has become the most inexpensive form of electricity in history, as of 2020. Just ten years ago, this was thought impossible and even the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast just a quarter of the amount of solar energy that was installed in 2020. The reason for this failed prediction was that the organization didn’t take into account the greater sums of investment, which led to increases in efficiency and a precipitous drop in prices.
But You Have to Mine Rare Earth Minerals
The common argument doomers like to make against EVs and renewable energy is that rare earth minerals have to be mined, and solar panels and wind turbines aren’t recyclable, which means that we are just transferring pollution from the air to the ground.
While this is true, again it shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how technology works, as well as a lack of imagination. For example, biomining is a way to extract minerals using plants (phytomining) and/or microbes. You see rare-earth minerals are not all that rare. It’s just that they occur in such small amounts in rock and soil that we need to resort to blowing up mountains and drilling underground to extract them. But if plants and microbes, which don’t make salary demands, can do it, then it makes these minerals much more accessible. This technology exists today, it just needs to be scaled.
Then there is the fact that in August of 2022, a company announced the first recyclable wind turbine, whose resin can be turned into (strangely enough) gummy bears and other products. Solar panels are already 80% recyclable, it’s just that the current technology makes it labor-intensive and expensive to do. However, since solar panels last 25 to 50 years that gives us a lot of time to innovate to make them more efficient.
Again, we don’t have to solve climate change all at one go, we just need to buy ourselves some time until science and technology evolve enough so that we can reduce or eliminate our emissions and pollution.
Exponential Technology
The speed at which technology improves is something else that many climate doomers fail to understand. Because of Moore’s Law, we are seeing improvements in synthetic biology (think bio-mining and cell-based meats), material science AI, and energy at increasingly faster rates.
Add to this record amounts of capital being invested into mitigating climate change, which has grown by 210% to $87.5 billion, invested into 3000 climate tech startups, between 2020 to 2021, according to the consultancy PWC.
This has led to improved efficiency in solar panels, which are at 25% up from 20% just a few years ago; carbon neutral jet fuel; carbon neutral concrete; and growable buildings from mycelium.
Exponential technology will eventually lead us to nuclear fusion, which could meet the global demand for clean free energy. However, the joke amongst physicists is that fusion is always 30 years away. This time experts agree that it really is just 20 to 30 years away.
There are two reasons for this belief. The first is that in December 2021 for the first time in history scientists created a fusion reaction that generated more energy than it used, a huge milestone. The second reason is that by 2025 ITER, (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) will come online. Located in the south of France, it will be the largest fusion reactor ever built and is a collaboration between 35 countries at an estimated cost of 22 billion Euros.
Nature is Resilient
Exponential technology has also given us a better understanding of nature. More data has shown us the importance of maintaining a healthy microbiome in the soil to prevent droughts and improve the nutrients in our food. We now understand the role mangroves play in preventing floods, keeping the oceans clean, and sequestering carbon. We now know that whales absorb huge amounts of CO2 in their bodies, and their poo acts as fertilizer for plankton, which has absorbed 40% of the CO2 ever produced. Just increasing plankton production by 1% is the equivalent of planting 2 billion trees.
While there are still plenty of challenges left, the good news is that according to a review published in the journal Nature, global fishing is becoming more sustainable and the destruction of habitats such as seagrass meadows and mangroves is almost at a halt. In some places like Tampa Bay, Florida, and the Philippines, the habitats are being restored. According to the review, the ocean can repair itself and scientists estimate that with enough effort the oceans can fully recover by 2050, in just one generation.
Coral Reefs
Even the Great Barrier Reef which has seen substantial damage from mass bleaching events and crown of thorns starfish has reported some good news. Between August 2021 and May 2022, a survey of 87 reefs found that the average hard coral cover in the upper region and central areas of the reef increased by around one-third, the highest amount of coral cover since the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) began monitoring 36 years ago.
Although this doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet, it does mean that coral reefs are capable of repairing themselves and if we assist them with a little help from science they can do so even quicker.
Saving Our Forests
Despite record-breaking fires, droughts, and disease even our forests are not beyond saving. However, while planting trees as a means to stop climate change has been in the news a lot, the latest science counsels against this in favor of a more natural approach called rewilding. This natural method of regrowing trees is also faster and makes more biodiverse healthier forests. Since it is also cheaper and less labor intensive, it is a much more scalable solution than planting.
New Legislation
However, technology is only part of the solution, and there are a lot of developments that doomers fail to acknowledge. For example in August 2022 a $370 billion climate bill passed, making it the single largest American investment to slow global warming by reducing demand for fossil fuels.
The bill invests money over 10 years in the form of tax credits that steer consumers toward electric vehicles and push utility companies toward renewable energy sources. Energy experts say that the bill could help to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels, which puts the country in striking distance of meeting its goal of cutting emissions in half by 2030.
The UN Declaration
On July 28, 2022, the United Nations General Assembly declared the ability to live in “a clean, healthy and sustainable environment,” a universal human right. Although the declaration is not legally binding, resolutions like this have in the past served as a foundation for effective treaties and national laws.
Shortly after the UN declaration, several citizens from Germany sued their own government. The plaintiffs, some of which are filing on behalf of their children, claim the right to breathe clean air is a human right that should be upheld by their government.
In fact, since 2015, over 1,000 climate-related court cases have been brought by citizens against their governments and corporations around the world to fight for a cleaner planet.
These lawsuits are gaining traction. For example on May 26, 2021, a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its emissions by 45% by 2030 from the 2019 levels. That includes emissions from vehicles that burn Shell’s gasoline.
The same day the Dutch court ruled on Shell’s case Exxon shareholders, along with the world’s largest investment fund manager, Blackrock, voted to oust three board members to replace them with experts in renewable energy and climate science.
University Divestments
In 2012 Unity College in Maine became the first university to divest its endowment from fossil fuels. By 2015, fossil fuel divestment became the fastest-growing divestment movement in history and by October 2021, 1,485 institutions totaling $39.2 trillion in assets committed to or had already divested from the fossil fuel industry.
More Bikes and Walking Paths
Several major cities including San Francisco, New York, Boston, London, Mexico City, Barcelona, Madrid, Oslo, Brussels, Copenhagen, Paris, Milan, Athens, and Rome were already restricting cars in the central business districts to fight climate change and make the areas more livable, pre-COVID-19. The pandemic has accelerated this trend and has highlighted our basic human need to have open outdoor spaces.
The ban on cars has resulted in cleaner air, reduced pedestrian deaths, lower obesity rates, fewer stress-related diseases, and additional space for housing, parks, trees, plants biking, and walking paths. Furthermore, business has improved, in the areas where the streets are closed. For example, London saw an increase in retail spending of 30% at shops and restaurants. Studies show that walkable streets are more economically productive per acre and property values thrive.
Other major cities like Paris, Madrid, Ottawa, Seattle, and Melbourne are turning their densely packed downtown areas into so-called 15-minute cities in which cars are banned or limited and all essential services are strategically placed within walking or biking distance.
A recent report from the Center for London shows that reduced traffic neighborhoods are one of the easiest ways to save money, improve health and make cities quieter.
Blue Zones Projects
In over a dozen cities and counties throughout the United States and Canada, including Bakersfield, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, Monterey County, Mendocino County, Grand Forks (North Dakota), and Fort Worth as well as several communities in Hawaii, have taken a similar approach by implementing Blue Zones Project. This redesigns cities to make them more livable, by adding bike paths, improving and adding parks, and trees, encouraging more plant-based eating, creating greater opportunities for community engagement, and making them more pedestrian-friendly.
The results? A 14% reduction in obesity, a 30% reduction in smoking, lower healthcare costs, less employee absenteeism, and, a generally happier community. So, reducing car usage not only has environmental benefits, but economic and health benefits as well.
Elevate Your Consciousness
Climate doomism is as damaging as climate denialism because it promotes inaction and is counterproductive. There is nothing in the scientific literature that says climate change is an intractable problem, provided that we work towards solutions, rather than shrugging our shoulders with a defeatist attitude.
Fear promotes anxiety, which leads to inaction. If you want to do something to fight climate change then educate yourself about solutions and elevate the consciousness of the people around you.
Remember it takes just 25% of a population to hit the tipping point for a social movement to become a societal norm. The interesting thing about the study is that in experiment after experiment if they were just 1% below that 25% mark, the movement failed. Because we are connected through emotional contagion if you are a climate doomer, you are affecting the people around you. So, the question you have to ask yourself is, do you want to be part of the problem or do you want to be part of the solution?
For some ideas on how you can be part of the solution please read The Most Important Thing You Can Do to Fight Climate Change and 10 Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint.
