Big Ten/ACC Challenge 2019: Day 2 Preview

The Big Ten/ACC Challenge concludes tonight with the remaining 18 teams facing off starting at 6 p.m. ET. The ACC has never lost the Challenge, winning a majority of the games nine times and tying with the Big Ten in the other three years. Here’s what you need to know about each of tonight’s games.

Illinois (6–1) at North Carolina (6–0)

North Carolina had a great showing at the Cancun Challenge, winning both of its games by 13 points. Illinois has only lost once, to in-state rival Illinois State. The Fighting Illini look to keep their season’s success alive as they haven’t beaten their ACC challenge opponent since the 2014–15 season.

Petra Holesínská’s success behind the three point line will be key for Illinois, as she’s ranked 18th nationally in 3PM (23) shooting 46%. UNC allows 31.7% of their opponent’s points to come from 3-pointers, which ranks them in the bottom 25% nationally. Holesínská, who missed all of last season with an ACL injury, has stepped up as the Fighting Illini’s leading scorer, averaging 16.3 PPG.

What’s impressive about North Carolina is that their starting lineup has a player who is ranked in the 98th percentile in each part of the stat sheet. Janelle Bailey averages 6.5 FTM per game (99.7 percentile), Madinah Muhammad averages 3.0 3PM per game (98.8 percentile), Malu Tshitenge averages 10.0 TRB per game (98.7 percentile), Shayla Bennett averages 5.2 APG (98.6 percentile) and Taylor Koenen’s 3P% is 53.8% (98.0 percentile). The Tar Heels went 18–15 last season, but with the addition of freshman Tshitenge and Ole Miss transfer Muhammad who have already made their presence known on the court, this team looks to go further than the first round of the NCAA tournament.

The Tar Heels sure know how to take care of the ball as they are ranked first in turnover rate (11.9%) averaging only 10.2 turnovers per game (3rd), first in opponent’s steal rate (4.5%) and ranked second in opponent’s steals per game (3.8). Illinois has a steal rate of 11.8% (52nd) and averages 10.3 SPG (45th) as freshman tandem Jada Peebles and Kennedi Myles combined average 4.0 SPG.

Illinois Impact Player: Kennedi Myles is only a freshman, but she’s already made an impression on the court, leading her team in offensive (3.0) and defensive (6.0) rebounding. She’s also averaging 2.1 SPG, 9.6 2PA, 4.3 FTA and has the highest usage rate on the team (27.3%).

North Carolina Impact Player: Janelle Bailey is nearly averaging a double-double with 17.5 PPG and 9.0 RPG. She’s had three so far: 21 points and 10 rebounds against Western Carolina, 20 points and 15 rebounds against Navy and 19 points and 11 rebounds against Temple. Bailey is also the only center ranked in the top 30 in FTM (39, 12th).

Pick ’em: North Carolina

Virginia (4–4) at Rutgers (6–1)

Rutgers traveled to the Junkanoo Jam in Bimini, Bahamas over Thanksgiving break and captured the Junkanoo Division title after beating Georgia Tech 46–43. Rutgers’ only loss is to LSU, who captured the Bimini Division title of the Junkanoo Jam after beating Memphis 89–58. In that loss to the Tigers, Rutgers committed 28 fouls, 15 of which were in the first half leading to key players having to sit on the bench. Three out of four of Virginia’s losses are to ranked undefeated teams: №4 UConn, №11 UCLA and №15 Kentucky.

Virginia’s Jocelyn Willoughby and Rutgers’ Arella Guirantes and Tekia Mack combined average 53.8 PPG. The rest of Virginia and Rutgers’ starting lineups combined average 49.9 PPG. The Scarlet Knights are fourth nationally in opponent’s PPG (47.9) so if they can stop Willougby, keeping that high ranking won’t be hard to do.

All of Rutgers’ opponents should have one common goal: stop Arella Guirantes and Tekia Mack. Those two account for 48% of Rutgers’ points. Guirantes’ season low in points came in the Scarlet Knights’ loss to LSU. Mack was limited to just under 23 minutes of play after only playing for less than three minutes in the first half due to committing two quick fouls.

Virginia Impact Player: Jocelyn Willoughby leads the Cavaliers in almost every stat. She’s first in PPG (18.4), RPG (9.2), FT% (89.1%), tied for first in SPG (1.6) and second in APG (2.0).

Rutgers Impact Player: Arella Guirantes is Rutgers’ equivalent to Willoughby as she leads the Scarlet Knights in PPG (19.3), RPG (7.9), BPG (1.3) and is second in APG (3.3).

Pick ’em: Rutgers

№9 Maryland (7–1) at №13 NC State (8–0)

(For more coverage of this game, don’t miss our preview of the top five games of the week.)

The gameplan for Maryland should be to get hot from behind the arc and accuracy at the charity stripe. The three games where NC State’s margin of victory was smallest occurred in the Heineken Rainbow Wahine Showdown in Honolulu, HI last week. They beat Texas and North Texas each by a margin of 11 points and beat Hawaii by nine. Texas and North Texas’ success came from free throw shooting. North Texas shot 79% making 11–14 free throws and Texas shot 80% from the line making 20–25. NC State ranks 16th nationally in percentage of opponent’s points from FT (12.7%) but that was not the case in these games. Eleven of North Texas’ 65 points came from free throws (16.9%) and 20 of Texas’ 73 points came from free throws (27.4%).

Hawaii was able to come close to beating NC State by shooting 86% from the charity stripe (6–7) but mainly by shooting 39.3% (11–28) from behind the arc. Hawaii came within one point on two occasions in the fourth quarter before NC State closed out the game on a 9–1 run.

High three-point percentage shooting should not be an issue for the Terrapins as they are 11th nationally, making 39.9% of three-point shots. They are fueled by 6'0" guards Blair Watson and Taylor Mikesell who are both in the 98th percentile in 3PM.

Maryland’s efficiency has been the foundation of their success this season as all players except one have a FG% of at least 44%, ranking them ninth nationally (48.3%). The Terrapins are in the top five in numerous stats such as margin per game (34.0, 2nd), steals per game (13.8, 3rd) total points (690, 4th), FGM (263, 4th) and 2PM (200, 5th).

Since Maryland is so efficient, NC State will need to grab all the defensive rebounds they can, which shouldn’t pose a problem as they’re ranked first in total defensive rebounds (281) and second in defensive rebounds per game (35.1). If they can capitalize on Maryland’s leading offensive rebounder Kaila Charles’ average of 3.4 fouls per game, they will win the battle of the boards by a significant margin.

Maryland Impact Player: While Watson and Mikesell can take care of the three-point game plan, 6'5" Forward Shakira Austin can help lift the Terrapins over the Wolfpack at the free throw line. She ranks in the 98th percentile in FTM (29) and can score points in the paint if Watson and Mikesell’s shots don’t fall since Austin’s in the 98th percentile in 2PM as well.

NC State Impact Player: Elissa Cunane is the main person behind the Wolfpack’s №1 ranking in total defensive rebounds. She’s 11th nationally with 57 total DRB and a defensive rebound rate of 29.5% (21st). So far this season, just over 50% of her defensive rebounds have led to points at the other end of the floor accounting for 10.8% of the Wolfpack’s total points.

Pick ’em: Maryland

Wisconsin (5–2) at Georgia Tech (5–1)

Wisconsin and Georgia Tech lost their previous games by single digits as both teams were playing in tournaments in the Bahamas over Thanksgiving break. Wisconsin lost 64–68 to Arkansas and Georgia Tech lost to 43–46 to Rutgers.

This game will be a battle on the glass, but statistically the Yellowjackets have a slight advantage. They have been successful so far at stifling their opponent’s rebound ability, limiting teams to 9.3 offensive (24th) and 21.7 defensive rebounds per game (30th). The Badgers average 13.0 offensive (124th) and 30.3 defensive rebounds per game (25th).

Georgia Tech’s defense has been intense this season, as they’re ranked first in opponent’s PPG (41.3) and winning by a margin of 29.0 (7th). Opponents are only shooting 30.4% from the floor (5th) and only 18.4% from behind the arc (1st). They also force their opponents to turn the ball over 25.2% (24th) of the time, so Wisconsin will have to limit their turnovers. That hasn’t been much of an issue since the Badgers only average 13.1 turnovers per game (36th).

Wisconsin Impact Player: Abby Laszewski is the leading rebounder for the Badgers and they will need every 8.0 RPG she averages to lead her team to victory. She also leads the team with 2.0 BPG, shoots 61.3% from the floor and averages 12.3 PPG. Her high FG% will help limit the amount of defensive rebounds the Yellowjackets can get.

Georgia Tech Impact Player: Lorela Cubaj averages a double-double with 10.7 PPG and 10.2 RPG along with 2.8 APG, 1.8 SPG and 1.7 BPG. The 6'4" forward from Italy averages 3.2 fouls per game, so she’ll need to stay out of foul trouble to continue to be effective.

Pick ’em: Georgia Tech

Purdue (6–1) at Virginia Tech (6–1)

Like Wisconsin and Georgia Tech, Purdue and Virginia Tech both lost their previous game by a narrow margin as they were playing in tournaments in Florida over Thanksgiving break. Purdue lost to Gonzaga 63–50 and Virginia Tech lost to Georgia 77–72. This is only the second time the Boilermakers and the Hokies have met. The first time was back in 2003 in an NCAA tournament game where Purdue went on to win and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

Purdue’s defense will match up nicely against Virginia Tech’s offense, as the Hokies are ranked in the top 20 in shooting and the Boilermakers are ranked in the top 20 in limiting opponent’s shooting. The Hokies average FG% is 48.5% (8th), but the Boilermakers have held their opponents to just 31.5% (11th). VA Tech scores 1.14 points per scoring attempt (11th) while Purdue limits teams to just 0.76 (8th). This game will either be a high scoring affair if Virginia Tech dominates or a low-scoring game if Purdue’s defense keeps playing the way it’s been.

Both teams will look to limit each other’s blocking prowess as Purdue’s Ae’Rianna Harris averages 3.0 BPG (10th) and Virginia Tech’s Lydia Rivers and Elizabeth Kitley combined average 3.0 BPG. Purdue only allows 2.9 BPG while Virginia Tech only allows 2.1 BPG.

Purdue Impact Player: Ae’Rianna Harris’ blocking ability may be her shining glory, but she also averages 9.4 RPG and 11.0 PPG including 3.0 FTM, which will help the Boilermakers as the Hokies allow at least 21.7% of their opponent’s points to come from free throws.

Virginia Tech Impact Player: Dara Mabrey, sister of former Notre Dame stars Michaela and Marina Mabrey, has made a name for herself in maroon and orange as opposed to blue and gold. She’s averaging 15.3 PPG on the strength of 72% shooting inside the arc, 39.6% behind and 87.5% from the charity stripe.

Pick ’em: Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh (3–4) at Penn State (4–4)

This match-up of in-state schools will be the second round of Pennsylvania schools each will face this regular season. Both teams lost to their in-state opponent earlier as Pittsburgh lost to city rival Duquesne and Penn State lost to La Salle.

Free throws is where Penn State has shined this year, ranking in the top 10 in FTM (132, 8th) and free throw trips (86, 10th). On the flip side, Pittsburgh is ranked 23rd nationally only allowing 12.6% of opponent’s points to come from free throws. Both teams have depth, as Penn State has eight players who’ve played in all of its games and Pittsburgh has nine players who’ve played in all of its games.

Pittsburgh Impact Player: Aysia Bugg won’t let anything stop her from playing basketball. This sixth-year senior only appeared in five games last season before having to medically red-shirt due to blood clots. In those five games she was averaging a team-high 14.0 PPG along with a career-high 23 points against Cincinnati. The season before that she also had to redshirt due to a knee injury. She already set a new career high this season with 26 points against Central Connecticut State after shooting 6–12 from behind the arc and a perfect 6–6 from the free throw line.

Penn State Impact Player: Kamaria McDaniel’s 17.2 PPG has been well needed as she’s stepped up as Penn State’s leading scorer after the graduation of Teniya Paige. McDaniel is posting similar numbers as Paige but McDaniel is a bit more active on defense averaging 1.2 SPG and 1.0 BPG as opposed to Paige’s 1.1 SPG and 0.1 BPG.

Pick ’em: Pittsburgh

№2 Louisville (8–0) at Ohio State (4–3)

After knocking off then №1 Oregon in the Paradise Jam last week, Louisville will start on a four-game road trip and look to keep its undefeated streak alive as one of only five teams who have eight wins. This will be Ohio State’s second chance to beat a top five team before getting its final chance on Dec. 15 when they travel to №1 Stanford.

The Buckeyes have had a bit of a slow start, but they’ve showed up well in big games as Ohio State put up a good fight against №4 UConn. There were 12 lead changes and UConn’s lead until the last three minutes of the game was single digits. Ohio State has a young squad of seven freshmen that includes only five upperclassmen who were on the team last year.

Louisville has been cardinal red-hot this season averaging 78.5 PPG (31st) and winning by a margin of 21.6 points. After losing #NITENITE Asia Durr to the WNBA, people were skeptical on how the Cardinals would fill her 21.2 PPG scoring void. Enter 5'6" Guard Dana Evans. Evans is averaging 19.6 PPG (28th) scoring a total of 157 points (8th) with almost half coming from three-pointers. Accounting for points scored and assists, she’s responsible for 35.4% of Louisville’s 628 total points (12th).

One aspect Louisville and Ohio State are both great at is blocks. Ohio State is 25th nationally in BPG (5.0) with Louisville not far behind at 31st (4.9). The Buckeyes are 30th nationally in limiting their opponent’s blocks (1.9) but the Cardinals are 90th (2.5). It will be a battle of 6'4" forwards, as both Louisville’s Kylee Shook and Ohio State’s Dorka Juhász have strikingly similar stats. Shook’s 10.6 PPG, 3.4 ORPG, 5.4 DRPG and 44.2% FG% look almost identical to Juhász’s 10.2 PPG, 3.5 ORPG, 5.0 DRPG and 42.4% FG%. The main difference is FT% as Shook makes 77.8% of her free throws whereas Juhász, like the rest of the Buckeyes, struggles from the charity stripe, only making 34.8%.

Louisville Impact Player: The Cardinals will need Jazmine Jones’ team-high 58.4% FG% to limit the Buckeyes’ defensive rebounding opportunities as Ohio State has three consistent players over 6'3" who combine for 11.4 defensive rebounds per game. Jones averages 14.1 PPG, 3.8 APG and 1.9 SPG adding to why the Cardinals haven’t faltered since losing three starters to graduation.

Ohio State Impact Player: Freshman Kierstan Bell is starting to mesh well into head coach Kevin McGuff’s system. Bell was highly touted coming out of high school winning Ohio’s top high school basketball award three times, a feat only LeBron James has done. The Buckeyes will need her 2.1 SPG (95th percentile) and 5.1 3PA per game to help overcome the Cardinals.

Pick ’em: Louisville

№19 Michigan State (6–1) at №8 Florida State (7–0)

(For more coverage of this game, don’t miss our preview of the top five games of the week.)

Michigan State and Florida State have a shared opponent in №25th ranked LSU. Florida State beat the Tigers but Michigan State did not. The difference maker in the Spartans’ loss was two missed free throws to tie the game with the clock at zero. That was just the fourth time the two teams had met with the series record now being 4–0 in favor of LSU.

This match-up most likely ties for team with the freshest legs by the end of a game as both teams have serious depth. Florida State has nine players who’ve played in all seven games and Michigan State has 10 players who’ve played in every game. They both use three of their starters for the majority of the game while rotating others into the lineup. Three of Florida State’s starters play 30–32 minutes while seven other players rotate in playing 10–22 minutes. Three starters of Michigan State’s starters play 25–30 minutes while six other players rotate in playing 11–17 minutes.

Similar to Virginia Tech and Purdue, Michigan State’s defense will match-up nicely against Florida State’s offense as the Seminoles are ranked in the top 20 in shooting and the Spartans are ranked in the top 20 in limiting opponent’s shooting. The Seminoles’ EFG% is 54.0% (15th) but the Spartans have held their opponents to just 37.2% (18th). Florida State shoots 36.6% from behind the arc but Michigan State limits their opponent’s percentage of points from three-pointers to just 13.5% (2nd).

Michigan State Impact Player: Michigan State will need their leading scorer Nia Clouden to disrupt Florida State’s offense with her 2.7 SPG average to keep the Spartans in the game. The Seminoles only turn the ball over 13 times on average, so Clouden needs to turn those turnovers into points.

Florida State Impact Player: Nicki Ekhomu will need to use her 76.5% free throw shooting to the Seminoles’ advantage since the Spartans commit 22.7 fouls per game (337th). She also averages 4.9 APG, but scoring opportunities may be limited as Michigan State only allow their opponents 54.1 (23rd) PPG.

Pick ’em: Florida State

Syracuse (4–3) at №24 Michigan (6–1)

Michigan will be the third ranked team Syracuse has faced within the past two weeks, losing to both now №1 Stanford and now №3 Oregon. Michigan’s only loss is to a now unranked Notre Dame.

Syracuse is ranked 11th in percentage of points from three-pointers, which is one way they can beat the Wolverines. Those three-pointers are mainly coming from Gabrielle Cooper and Digna Strautmane — together averaging 14 3PA per game. Michigan has allowed 164 3PA so far, ranking them in the bottom 15% nationally. In their loss to Notre Dame and single digit win against Akron, Michigan’s opponents shot at least 31% from behind the arc. In all of Michigan’s big wins, their opponents shot less than 26% from behind the arc.

The way that Michigan can beat Syracuse is by getting the Orange into foul trouble. Syracuse’s starting line-up has struggled with fouls, as four out of the five average at least 2.3 fouls per game with forward Maeva Djaldi-Tabdi averaging almost four a game. Michigan only shoots 63.6% from the free throw line, but is ranked 26th in FG% (46.2%) so as long as their shots are falling, the Wolverines won’t need to rely on free throws.

Syracuse Impact Player: Kiara Lewis is Syracuse’s most dominant player, averaging 15.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 6.0 APG, and 1.3 SPG. Foul trouble may haunt her since she averages 2.9 per game. This has been costly in the past, like when she fouled out with three minutes left in the fourth quarter of the Orange’s OT loss to Green Bay last week.

Michigan Impact Player: Naz Hillmon’s efficiency will help lead her Wolverines to victory as she’s shooting 61.2% from the floor, making 5.9 two-pointers per game. She’s already notched two double-doubles, a 16-point and 12-rebound performance in a win against Bradley and a 17-point and 16-rebound performance in a loss to Notre Dame.

Pick ’em: Michigan

Projected record on Day 2: Big Ten 3, ACC 6

Projected cumulative record: Big Ten 7, ACC 7

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