Scouting Notre Dame and UConn: Keys to Victory for Each Team
One of the most storied rivalries in all of college basketball is set to renew on Sunday as Notre Dame head coach Muffet McGraw takes her young Fighting Irish to Storrs, Connecticut, to battle Geno Auriemma’s fourth-ranked UConn Huskies. The 2019–20 edition of UConn is unbeaten yet somehow under the radar, while this season’s Notre Dame squad is struggling to stay above .500 after losing nearly all of its scoring from a year ago. Nonetheless, toss the records out the window for the 51st meeting between these blue bloods — this matchup is annual appointment television.
Here are a few things to watch for in one of the most anticipated games of the week:
UConn Keys
1. Ball movement
When facing McGraw’s 2–3 defense, passing is always paramount. According to Synergy, UConn has faced a zone on just 8.6% of its possessions, fewer than 85% of other teams. In addition, the Huskies have scored a mere 70.6 points per 100 possessions against zones, which places them in the bottom third of Division I in efficiency as well. Auriemma’s offense is a full 20 points per 100 possessions better against man defenses and ranks 26th in that category, and McGraw knows it. The Irish are one of only 38 teams to play zone on over half of their defensive possessions, and that frequency should be even higher on Sunday.
Despite UConn’s early-season struggles against zone defenses, they have shown flashes of ball-movement brilliance. Here is what the Husky offense will need to look like to get good looks against the 2–3:
2. Experience
The Irish are greener than Ireland on St. Patrick’s Day — the numbers on Notre Dame’s youth are staggering. McGraw has used a thin rotation early on, as only six players have played more than 90 total minutes. Four of those six are in their first year in South Bend, and the other two are sophomores that saw a combined 242 minutes on the floor last year. In their season-opening win against Cal, the Huskies started a full lineup of players who had each played more than 242 minutes last season. In other words, entering this season the entire Notre Dame rotation had played less combined career minutes for the Irish than any one of the UConn starters played in 2018–19 alone. The ability to put players on the court who are familiar with Auriemma’s system will be a significant edge for UConn in this one.
Here is a common baseline-out-of-bounds play that UConn runs. It starts out in a 1–4 low set, then the inbounder passes over the top to the high post and steps in to set a flex screen for the player in the corner. From there, they have some other options, but let’s focus on that first action.
Now watch what happens when teammates need some guidance on the play. In the first clip, senior Crystal Dangerfield makes sure junior Megan Walker makes the right pass over to the other high post. In the second, it is Walker displaying the leadership, as she directs freshman Anna Makurat to set the flex screen.
Both coaches in this matchup are in the Hall of Fame, and both are as savvy as they come at X’s and O’s on both sides of the ball. But only one coach has the luxury of players with multiple years of experience with his X’s and O’s, and that could be a critical factor in this weekend’s matchup.
Notre Dame Keys
1. Sam Brunelle’s shot
McGraw recruited Sam Brunelle to be a shooter. Brunelle, winner of last year’s McDonald’s All-American three-point contest, might have the quickest release and smoothest footwork of any freshman in the country. The only problem? Her shots haven’t been falling yet at the college level. Shooting just 21.4% from three, Brunelle is a volcano waiting to erupt. Her light is even greener than her team’s experience level, and it isn’t turning yellow anytime soon — she ranks in the top 1% of all Division I players in three-point attempts with 56. Watch how quick her trigger can be, even from way behind the line early in the shot clock.
If Brunelle can sink a couple of deep ones early, UConn’s paint protector extraordinaire Olivia Nelson-Ododa may have to come out on pick-and-pops and guard her on the perimeter. Pulling one of the top shot blockers in the country away from the rim would open up drives and backdoor looks in McGraw’s Princeton offense. Here are some clips of Brunelle getting the ball on the high post and passing away in Notre Dame’s loss to Tennessee— if the Irish run pick-and-pops on these actions this weekend, keep an eye on how the Huskies defend her. Note in the last clip that Tennessee’s Tamari Key stays with Brunelle, so ball handler Anaya Peoples drives to the rim and draws a foul. Will UConn respect Brunelle’s high-school pedigree the way Key did? Or will they make her prove that she can consistently hit shots from the college line?
2. Shading Nelson-Ododa
Nelson-Ododa is developing into a two-way superstar after playing with a roster full of WNBA All-Stars in the FIBA Americup over the summer, but her offense is still slightly behind her otherworldly defense. When she catches the ball in the post, she does have the ability to turn over either shoulder, but she prefers her right. As a right-handed shooter, she loves the fadeaway jumper when she spins to her strong side. And she’s good at it. Really good. Check out some of her turnaround jump shots over good defense.
While Nelson-Ododa is capable of finishing over her left shoulder as well, that move is still a work in progress. If Notre Dame can force her to take some of these, they will have a chance at an upset.
3. Making reads
Because McGraw runs a motion offense, a lot of its success depends on how her players are able to read their defenders. For Notre Dame to get its first regular-season victory over UConn since a triple-overtime classic in 2013, the Irish will need to make the right plays and take what the Huskies give them on offense.
Let’s look at one example of how the Irish will need to read the defense. One of the sets they run frequently starts with the guard passing to one high post and screening away to the other high post. The player coming off of this screen has several options and must choose based on how they are being defended. Here are a few of those options:
CURL TO THE HOOP
POP OUT FOR A THREE OR A JUMPER
REJECT AND GO BACKDOOR
DRIBBLE HANDOFF
Notre Dame has the talent to get back into the top 25, and it would be silly to count out Muffet McGraw. The Irish, however, may need to figure things out soon before the season gets away from them. Block out a late-afternoon window in your schedule on Sunday and tune into ESPN at 4 ET to see if McGraw’s fledglings will grow up in time for their toughest test of the season.
For more stats and info check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, and prepare for the game the way former Husky Rebecca Lobo does!
If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year. Stats are compiled from Her Hoop Stats, Synergy Sports, Notre Dame Athletics and UConn Athletics and reflect games through Wednesday, December 4.
