Terrorism: Predictable isn’t Preventable
Disenfranchised and radicalized young men detonate bombs, shoot, stab, or drive trucks into crowds of people in public areas such as markets, city streets, subway stations, shopping malls, and stadiums. We know the methods, profiles of attackers, and type of locations because it happens in a city somewhere in the world almost every day.
In the past 15 months, 891 people have been killed or injured by terrorists driving vehicles into crowds in cities including:
- Barcelona, Aug. 17, 2017: Younes Abouyaaqoub, 22, plowed a van into La Rambla in Barcelona, Spain, killing 13 people and injuring at least 130 others, one of whom died 10 days later. Nine hours later, five members of the same terrorist cell drove into pedestrians in nearby Cambrils, killing one woman and injuring six others.
- London, June 3, 2017: A van plowed into pedestrians on London Bridge, and its three occupants then ran through the streets stabbing people in a terrorist attack. Eight people were killed and 48 injured. It came a month after five people were killed in a similar vehicle-ramming attack in Westminster.
- Stockholm. April 7, 2017: A hijacked lorry was deliberately driven into crowds in Sweden’s capital city, killing five and injuring 14 others.
- London, March 22, 2017: Khalid Masood, 52, rammed a car into pedestrians on Westminster Bridge, killing 4 and injuring 50.
- Berlin, Dec. 19, 2016: Twelve people died when a ISIS follower rammed a Christmas market in Germany, injuring 56.
- Nice, July 14, 2016: A jihadist crashed a massive truck into Bastille Day crowds in France, killing 86 and injuring 458.
We can predict the threat and understand the impacts of a terrorist ramming a vehicle into a crowd, but that does not mean that it is preventable.
Preventing Terrorist Attacks?
Prevention (the action of stopping something from happening or arising) is at the heart of the Department of Homeland Security’s counter-terrorism mission.
Protecting the American people from terrorist threats is the reason the Department of Homeland Security was created, and remains our highest priority. Our vision is a secure and resilient nation that effectively prevents terrorism in ways that preserve our freedom and prosperity.
To prevent terrorist attacks, DHS offers three strategies including:
- Detect explosives and other weapons
- Help protect critical infrastructure and cyber networks from attack
- Build information-sharing partnerships
Thinking back to the thunderstorm example, the Doppler radar is able to detect that a thunder storm is forming, the weather app is a information sharing tool that notifies you of the hazard, and the actions that you take by removing the umbrella from the patio, or deciding not to go boating, help protect you and your property from damage. Detection, protection, and information sharing are all elements of prediction, but not prevention.
The focus on prevention is not limited to the United States, the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force also has the global objective of preventing terrorism.
If terrorist needs to be prevented and the threat is predictable, what can stop a truck from killing cyclists and pedestrians on a bike path? Crash-proof bollards can physically block any vehicle from entering a pathway. Are physical barriers all that we need?
Predictable Attacks
Prediction of threats from terrorism is not prevention. If the bike path is protected by bollards, an attacker can decide to ram into pedestrians walking on a sidewalk that does not have barriers.
Or ride between the barriers to attack people with a knife or machete.
Or drive a motorcycle with a machine gun down the bike path.
The possibilities are endless. Our ability to predict the possibilities is only limited by our imagination. Our capability to prevent all types of attacks is extremely limited by finite resources and the ability of adversaries to innovate and overcome protective measures (See Jack Anderson’s explanation of the Fortress Problem).
Counter-terrorism Strategy
If prevention is impossible (or highly unlikely), why are Department of Homeland Security and the United Nations focused on an unrealistic objective?
Everyday we take actions to mitigate our personal risk against threats and hazards that we identify and understand. Can a better informed public who understands risks take individual steps to mitigate their vulnerabilities to terrorism? If the citizens riding their bikes down the path in New York City understood that they were at risk from terrorists, would the outcome have been any different?
The government cannot protect you by preventing all threats and hazards from occurring. When you are in a public place, you need to understand that you are vulnerable. Think about the worst case scenarios and have a plan. Be aware of your surroundings. If something does occur, be equipped and prepared to help yourself and the people around you.
When National Weather Service issues a severe thunderstorm warning, it’s on you to wear a rain jacket. We all need to have the same understanding and attitude towards terrorism.
David Riedman is an expert in critical infrastructure protection, disaster preparedness, and emergency management. He is a co-founder of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s Advanced Thinking and Experimentation (HSx) Program at the Naval Postgraduate School.
