Explaining the 2018 NBA Draft in under five minutes

Here’s why Trae Young is closer to Seth Curry than Steph, where the top prospects will fall, and who the biggest stars and busts will be.

Less than two weeks after the most predictable and forgettable NBA Finals in years, the NBA will need a much-needed refreshment on Thursday with the 2018 NBA Draft. The Warriors may still be the reigning champs, but they looked vulnerable for the first time in two seasons against Houston. Golden State’s dynasty will be challenged sooner rather than later, and the rebuilding teams are fighting to put themselves in position to succeed the Bay Area giants.

Three of the top prospects in the 2018 NBA Draft. From left: DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Luka Doncic. Image: Getty Images via Sporting News.

Barring any trades, Phoenix will pick first, followed by Sacramento, Atlanta, Memphis, and Dallas. All five teams need a franchise player or a compliment to existing pieces and have the chance to add a key piece to their respective cores. The league’s bottom-feeders are in luck, as this year’s crop of prospects appears to be as promising as last season’s stellar group.

It’s impossible — and a complete waste of time — to predict which teams will take who and in which order, so instead I’ll list my brief thoughts on the top prospects in the draft and in what order I would take them.

Top Prospects

Could Luka Doncic be the Euro LeBron?

1. Luka Doncic- A potentially transcendent play-maker at the next level. Has few glaring weaknesses and is ready to contribute now as a proven professional. Dominated overseas at age 19, leading a team of pro basketball players to a Euro League championship while being named the Final Four MVP. Looks and plays like he belongs with vision and passing beyond his years. Can shoot and score effectively against tough competition. Looks to be a capable defender and will compete with effort, but lacks upside on that end. Is a good, but not great athlete who lacks shiftiness and explosiveness. All-around, the most promising European prospect since Dirk Nowitzki. Height/weight/wingspan: 6'8, 228, N/A.
2. Jaren Jackson- A versatile defender with the ability to switch and defend all five positions. Productive in college, averaging 20 and 11 while shooting 39 percent from outside per 40 while shooting around 80 percent from the line. Stands 6'11 with a 7'5 wingspan. Can defend at a high level and stretch the floor. A great rim protector with 5.5 blocks per 40 minutes. Great feel for the game on defense, though he isn’t a good playmaker or passer. Needs to add to his offensive game and must be a more physical and aggressive rebounder. Is the ideal modern big-man and would be a critical piece to a rising young team’s core. Height/weight/wingspan: 6'11, 236, 7'5.
3. Mo Bamba- An incredible athlete at 7'0 tall with an NBA record 7'10 wingspan. Will be a defensive force and a great rim protector and rebounder. Has a developing three-point shot and has shown touch. Alter shots with 5 blocks per 40 minutes. Ran the three-quarter-court split at the Draft combine faster than John Wall and Russell Westbrook. Needs to be more physical and disciplined defensively. Eager to learn, grow, and improve with all the physical traits to be a star. Height/weight/wingspan: 7'0, 226, 7'10.
4. DeAndre Ayton- Athletic freak with a 7'1, 240-pound frame. Shows flashes of stardom on the offensive end with a developing outside shot. Productive and dominant in college, averaging over 20 points and 11 rebounds. Underwhelmed on the defensive end, which led to an early upset in the tournament. Has a high defensive upside, but hasn’t produced with sub-par block rates. Struggles to defend smaller, quicker guards in space on switches. Height/weight/wingspan: 7'0, 243, 7'5.
5. Marvin Bagley- An athletic wing who can develop into an effective scorer and can be great building block on a young team. Is great in transition and shows flashes of floor-stretching ability. Shot 39.7 percent from behind the arc in college and was very productive against good competition at Duke. Averaged 21 points and 11 rebounds and flashed the ability to take over games as a scorer. Plays with intensity and a high motor and is a good rebounder. Isn’t a true big and will likely find his home as a wing on the perimeter. Might struggle on the defensive end in the NBA against bigger players and won’t take over games as a scorer like in college. Height/weight/wingspan: 6'11, 234, 7'0.5.
6. Lonnie Walker- Explosive, athletic scorer reminiscent of Donovan Mitchell. Physical and aggressive on both ends. Great in isolation, placed in the 98th percentile as an isolation scorer. Aggressive and capable defender at 6'5 with a 6'11 wingspan. Needs to be more disciplined on both ends. Could’ve been more productive with average shooting percentages that will rise with a better shot selection. Height/weight/wingspan: 6'4.5, 196, 6'10.5.

Other lottery picks:

Miles Bridges- A strong, athletic wing who can develop into a capable NBA scorer. Would’ve been a lottery pick last year, but came back to Michigan State and saw declines in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and rebounds and a marginal increase in points per game. His stock dropped and will likely be a late lottery pick, but he’s still shown he can be a good role player in the NBA. He has the strength to rebound and the springiness to bring crowds to his feet with put-back dunks. He’s sloppy with the ball, doesn’t elevate teammates, and has a limited defensive ceiling with a wingspan that’s average at best, but he can still be a quality contributor in the NBA. Height/weight/wingspan: 6'7, 220, 6'9.5.

Collin Sexton- A scrappy, aggressive, undersized point guard who can develop into a sixth man or a capable NBA starter, depending on the situation he lands in. He’s relentless when attacking the rim and playing on-ball defense and has a playing style similar to De’Aaron Fox, last year’s No. 5 overall selection. Will land in the late lottery and could end up being a steal if he improves his three-point shot and learns to effectively run an offense. At the very least, he could be a defensive stopper like Patrick Beverley. Height/weight/wingspan: 6'1.5, 183, 6'7.

Busts

Trae Young- A prolific college guard who’s closer to backup Seth Curry than two-time MVP Steph Curry. He deserves credit and attention for what he did at Oklahoma; Young posted over 27 points and nearly nine assists per game. However, in the NBA he’s nothing more than a spark guy who can effectively run the second unit. He’s too small and slow to guard NBA starters and will be a defensive liability. Young played loose in college and will need to be more disciplined and careful with the ball to stay on the court. He’ll struggle to score like he did in college and will be one of the biggest disappointments in the 2018 Draft if he goes in the lottery.

-James Faris

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