Week 6 NFL Picks
After my best week of the season, here’s who I’m picking in every NFL game this week.
Starting this week, I’m picking every NFL game in this column instead of picking five select games. On the year, I’m at a modest 55 percent in the 97th percentile on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em.
Every Wednesday, I pick the winners against the spread of five NFL games. A “lock” means that a favorite of 4.5 points must win by five or more. An “upset” means that a team favored to lose at least 4.5 points wins outright. “Best bets” are games you can be confident about even though the favorite is favored by 4.5 or less. Home teams are in all caps.
Last week: 2–3 (Cardinals, Bengals; Rams, Raiders, Panthers), 9-6 overall
GIANTS (+2.5) over Eagles
Much is still unclear about this NFL season, but one thing is evident: Philadelphia has regressed from last year’s Super Bowl winning team. The Eagles have been significantly outgained in yardage this year and have a Net Yards per Play of -0.4. Philly’s defense is allowing 5.6 YPP, a sharp drop off from last year’s sixth-ranked unit allowing 5.0 YPP.
The Giants are getting nearly a field goal at home, a great value on a team that’s better than its record. By the way, the home team has won outright in all five Thursday games this season. Take the points with New York to pull a Thursday Night upset.
FALCONS (-3.5) over Buccaneers
It’s hard to believe Atlanta is 1–4 after being one play away from the NFC Championship last season. The Falcons have lost four key defensive starters and have seen a defense that allowed 5.1 YPP in 2017 give up 6.0 YPP this year. Still, the numbers say Atlanta isn’t nearly as bad as its record and is an average to above-average team.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is coming off a bye but has too many problems to patch up in just one week. Under second-year head coach Dirk Koetter, the Buccaneers are 3–6–1 against the spread on the road, and I have little confidence in this team to get stops against a top-tier Falcons offense. I don’t feel great about it, but I lean Atlanta in this one.
TEXANS (-7.5) over Bills
I’m not talking myself into Buffalo again. Especially not on the road. Especially not when I’ve gone 1 for 5 picking Bills games this season. In fact, by betting against them, they’ll probably win convincingly against an underwhelming Houston team and make me look stupid for the fifth week in a row. Before I change my mind, I’m taking the Texans at home to cover.
Bears (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Chicago — my breakout team in the NFC — has lived up to and exceeded my expectations and has an extra week to prepare against a Miami team I have no confidence. I’ve successfully bet against the Dolphins each of the past two weeks and I’m hoping to make it three in a row this week. The Bears have a Net Yards per Play of 0.2 while the Dolphins are -0.2, meaning Chicago has a measurable edge against the Fins. I lean the Bears in this one in a low-scoring game.
BENGALS (-2.5) over Steelers
Home-field advantage in the NFL is worth three points, so a less than three-point favorite at home means Vegas says the road team is better and would be favored at a neutral site. Maybe I’m missing something, but the Bengals have looked far more impressive than the Steelers to me this season. These two teams are equal in Net YPP, but I’ll take the home team in a heated, high-scoring rivalry game.
BROWNS (+0.5) over Chargers
This Cleveland team looks, feels, and is different in 2018. The Browns have an energy and optimism to them that’s far different from past seasons. Cleveland is 3–0 at home this season against the spread and is covering by an average of 3.5 points. Typically, West Coast teams like Los Angeles coming east don’t fare well in 1 p.m. starts. This game will likely be very competitive but in a pick’em, I lean Cleveland to pull through in front of its home crowd.
JETS (-2.5) over Colts
There’s a solid case to be made here for the Colts — Indianapolis will likely be getting key playmakers back from injury with three extra days to prepare — but I simply think New York is better. Using the same logic as earlier in the article, Vegas says the Colts are slightly better than the Jets since New York is favored by less than three at home, and I just don’t see it.
According to Net YPP, the Jets are slightly above the NFL average at 0.2 while Indianapolis is at a dismal -0.6, the fifth-worst mark in the league. I’ll take New York to win by a field goal or more.
Seahawks (-2.5) over Raiders (in London)
I’m completely through with the Raiders after they botched what I thought would be a perfect upset. If head coach Jon Gruden’s team was at home this week, I’d lean Oakland, but a neutral site matchup across the pond means Seattle is the right side. With the Seahawks, I get a better team laying less than a field goal trending in the right direction; I’m taking Seattle.
VIKINGS (-10.5) over Cardinals
I’ve been right with Arizona each of the past two weeks, but this week I’m going against the Red Birds. The Cardinals got their first win of the season last week against a lowly San Francisco team, but this week’s test will be much more difficult. Under head coach Mike Zimmer, Minnesota is 25–11 at home against the spread. Naturally, I’m uneasy laying big points with the Vikings at home after what happened last time, but I lean Minnesota against a rookie quarterback behind a bad offensive line in a hostile environment.
REDSKINS (-1.5) over Panthers
Teams like Washington that get embarrassed in primetime usually come back strong, and I’m banking on the Redskins to rebound from an embarrassing 43–19 showing against the Saints. The numbers say Carolina is one of the most overrated teams in the league: the Panthers Net YPP of -0.9 is third-worst in football. Meanwhile, Washington is slightly above-average at 0.2. The Redskins are the smart side to win and cover.
BRONCOS (+6.5) cover vs Rams
Denver is a different team at home and on the road and after an ugly loss to the Jets, I think the Broncos recover and cover against Los Angeles. The Rams are a much better team, but the L.A. defense has real issues right now. While the Broncos can’t match the potent Rams offense score for score, Denver can compete at home in a low-scoring affair.
Jaguars (-2.5) over COWBOYS
Dallas is one of the only home underdogs I’m staying away from this week. I don’t trust the Cowboys to move the ball against an angry, motivated Jaguars defense and I think Jacksonville will have more success this week if it can avoid turnovers. I lean Jacksonville to cover this week laying less than a field goal.
TITANS (+2.5) over Ravens
Tennessee’s last four games have been decided by three points or less, so I’ll take the Titans at home getting points against an inconsistent Baltimore team. Since 2017, the Titans have the second-best record in the league at home against the spread and won by an average of 3.5 points.
However, in the same span, the Ravens have the second-best road record against the spread. In what will likely be a close game, I like Tennessee to keep things tight at home to right the ship after a disappointing loss to Buffalo.
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Chiefs
This is a perfect spot for the Patriots: a primetime game at home after back-to-back wins. Since 2015, New England is 22–8–2 at home against the spread — a cover rate of over 73 percent.
Kansas City has been incredibly impressive this season, but its defensive weaknesses suggest the Chiefs will fall sooner rather than later unless the unit starts playing significantly better. Expect New England to expose Kansas City in primetime and win by more than a field goal.
49ers (+9.5) over PACKERS
In this week’s Monday Night matchup, I like the Packers to win and the 49ers to cover. As we’ve seen this season, nine points is a lot to lay to any NFL team, especially a scrappy team like San Francisco. Believe it or not, the ’Niners have the 10th-best Net YPP in the league.
Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is just 6–8 in his last 14 primetime games, and while I believe he’ll win, I’ll take the points with San Fran.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
