Kindred FAQ

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What is CRED?

It’s a virtual currency for making predictions on Kindred. You need CRED to bet on predictions, and you earn CRED when your predictions come true. Accumulating CRED therefore reflects your forecasting prowess and also lets you win you rewards including cash prizes.

Is CRED a cryptocurrency?

No, it’s local to our app and community only, but we’re intrigued by the future possibility of decentralization.

Can I change my prediction?

Yes, you can sell predictions and make new ones to update your views.

What do community predictions mean?

Community predictions are based on how much CRED has been used to predict Yes versus No. Specifically, the community Yes prediction is the percentage of CRED bet on Yes. Likewise, the community No prediction is the percentage of CRED bet on No. For example, let’s say some community members have bet a combined 600 CRED on Yes for a particular question, while others have bet a combined 400 CRED on No. In this case, the community Yes prediction is 60%, and the community No prediction is 40%. Community predictions indicate how confident participants currently feel about Yes or No outcomes.

How are prediction prices calculated?

Prediction prices are based directly on community predictions. If the community Yes prediction is currently 60%, then 60 CRED is required to make a Yes prediction. Similarly, if the community No prediction is currently 40%, then 40 CRED is required to make a No prediction.

How are prediction outcomes officially decided?

The Kindred development team will decide outcomes in accordance with the resolution criteria defined for each question. When we determine an outcome, the question will be closed to any new predictions, and CRED will automatically be distributed to those who made the correct prediction.

Why does Kindred get to decide on prediction outcomes?

Empowering community ownership is one of our core principles, but it’s always hard to coordinate agreement, and we want to be thoughtful about how we do it in our community. We think that starts by putting a product in your hands and paying close attention to how you want to use it. During the competition, we will study closely how future product features can give community members more control, including but not limited to how outcomes are decided. Until then, the most practical solution is for us to decide on outcomes during the competition and arbitrate any issues that may arise.

How is my score calculated?

Your score is the sum of the balance in your CRED wallet and the value of your current predictions.

Your CRED wallet increases by 100 each time a prediction of yours comes true (i.e. it matches the official outcome). If you bet 60 CRED on a correct prediction, for example, then you will have earned an additional 40 CRED to use.

Your predictions can gain or lose value even before outcomes are determined. The value of your prediction is equal to the current community prediction. Let’s say that you bet 60 CRED on a Yes prediction (i.e. the community prediction was 60% Yes at the time). If the current community prediction is 80% Yes, then your prediction has gained value and is now worth 80 CRED, which is automatically reflected as part of your CRED score. Conversely, your prediction also loses value if the community prediction trends the other way.

How will I know when new questions are available?

During the competition, we will email updates about once a week and notify you of new questions. If you want to get ahead of the curve, you can regularly check the website for updates as well.