Selling and updating predictions
Sometimes things change, including our minds. Fortunately, Kindred now lets you update predictions to reflect your latest opinions and world views. Here’s how it works.
Sell a prediction.
Just click on a prediction you’ve made to start the selling process. You will be able to see how much Cred you spent on the prediction and how much Cred you’ll receive for selling it.
Make a new prediction.
After selling a prediction, you can make a new one on the same question, now or later. You can switch predictions from a Yes to a No or vice versa; you can wait until you’re more confident in a new prediction; or you may decide to use the Cred you got back on a different question instead.
How much can I sell a prediction for?
When you sell a prediction, the selling price is automatically calculated based how much Cred other community members have spent on making Yes or No predictions. If you sell your prediction for more Cred than you originally spent, that means the community has tended to agree with your prediction since you made it. If you sell your prediction at a loss, that means they have tended to disagree with it.
Please check out our FAQ if you’re interested in learning more about how our pricing algorithms work.
Why would I sell a prediction?
Different people have different reasons, but here are a few common scenarios.
You need more Cred to make new predictions.
A new question was just released. You feel confident about making a prediction, but you don’t have enough Cred in you wallet. Selling allows you to free up Cred to make predictions on new questions.
You’ve lost confidence in your original prediction.
You learned something new, and you’re no longer sure you made the right call. Your score may have even gone down as more and more people make the opposite prediction. Selling allows you to recoup some Cred and reconsider your opinion.
You want to switch your original prediction.
You learned something new, and now you’re confident that the opposite prediction is the correct one. Selling allows you to change your prediction from a Yes to a No or vice versa.
Selling predictions gives you a powerful way to update your views on Kindred, but using it is ultimately up to you. We hope you find it useful, and that its opens up new kinds of interactions between community members. If you have any questions, feedback, or ideas, please share them with us by joining our community chat on Slack.
