New York Knicks Analysis — Part Two
Since looking at the Knicks almost two weeks ago, the team has improved slightly across the board. Their defensive rating is down 1.5 points per 100 possessions at 107.5, but remains the worst in the league. Their net rating also improved by 1.5 points per 100 possessions, as their offense remained stagnant, and their -5.6 NetRtg is sixth worst in the league as of November 15.
After a strong defensive effort against Dallas, they have reduced their opponent three point percentage to 35%. They remain one of the league’s worst defensive rebounding teams, giving up the third-most offensive rebounds in the league. They rank in the bottom tier of the league in second chance points allowed as well as free throws allowed, and are giving up 36 points per game from the line and on offensive rebounds. These easy points and the high frequency of shots at the FT line contribute significantly to the Knicks poor defensive rating, as they are allowing a 13th-best 44.4 FG% and an 11th-best 20.5 assists/game.
On the opposite side of the coin, despite playing well offensively in the half-court, the Knicks have been hampered by an inability to score at the line, in transition or off turnovers. They rank last in the league with 13.4 points per game off turnovers, fifth-worst with 10 points per game on the fast break, and seventh-worst with a .236 FT rate. This offensive futility is due in some part to building chemistry with new pieces, but also due to misshapen personnel.
The Knicks have opened most of their recent games with pure triangle sets, and adjusted as the games progress into spread pick-and-roll and a transition-focused bench unit. Below, the Knicks set up a triangle action whose primary focus is Anthony cutting across the lane to the strong side post. Noah looks for Anthony, who’s properly fronted, and moves to his second option of Rose coming off the Porzingis screen on the weak side. Rose beats his man for a flashy layup in the lane.
Contrast that pure triangle set with what they ran to start the fourth quarter, spread pick and roll.
The Knicks have shown to be adaptive, and assuming they are solely a “triangle” team by nature is misplaced.
In the Mavericks game, Jeff Hornacek benched Joakim Noah at the start of the third quarter after the Knicks scored 36 points in the first half. With Anthony at the four and Porzingis at the five, the Knicks became practically unstoppable offensively. This season, in 37 minutes, a chunk of which occurred in this Dallas game, the four-man combination of Rose-Holiday-Anthony-Porzingis has a net rating of of 16.1 and pours in 121 points per 100 possessions. The three-man combination of Anthony-Porzingis-Noah is -2.3 in 163 minutes, giving up 111.3 points per 100 possessions. Alternatively, in 44 minutes, the three-man combination of Holiday-Anthony-Porzingis is +21, and scores 125.6 points per 100 possessions.
Primarily, lineups with Anthony at the four and Porzingis at the five space the floor efficiently, and make most defensive situations tenuous. When the opposing team’s center can shoot from the perimeter, it forces the defense to sag out of the paint, opening driving and passing lanes for the offense’s guards. Defensively, the Knicks sacrifice some rim protection and rebounding, but have shown capability in gang-rebounding situations where Porzingis is out of position off a miss. As well, Anthony is more adept at defending thicker forwards in the mid-post than he is at chasing wings around the perimeter. Furthermore, Rose and Porzingis have taken time to communicate on defense, and have often been caught making mistakes on their pick-and-roll coverage. These communication issues have been more pronounced when Porzingis plays the 4, as he must contend with a variety of options on the perimeter, where he is a less effective defender, instead of opposing centers who pose less of a threat handling the ball out of pick-and-roll on the outside.
Watch below as Rose and Porzingis seem to lack clarity on how they plan on covering the pick and roll. Rose’s initial effort seems to be over the screen, and he sharply reverses course to stick on the roll man. Porzingis recognizes this a moment too late and allows an open jumper.
Contrast that with the play below, where Rose and Noah immediately recognize the proper coverage, and Rose fights over the screen. Noah shows on the ball-handler, Rose recovers to put two on the ball, stopping any penetration, and Noah is in perfect position to shift back onto Lopez. This results in a stagnant possession and a rare example of good Knicks defense.
On the play below, one sees the offensive advantage of the Anthony-Porzingis combination. Anthony takes the ball at the elbow with Porzingis on the baseline. Anthony has a significant size advantage on Wesley Matthews, who must sag slightly off Anthony to absorb a potential drive to the basket. Bogut must stay home in the paint should Anthony swing the ball and force penetration on the weak side. This opens up the space for Porzingis to slip into the corner, and Anthony sets a simple screen to block Bogut’s contest.
Despite their success, it’s not an option for the Knicks to start Porzingis full-time at center. He remains young and has trouble holding post position against thicker bodies. His pick-and-roll coverage needs work. Noah is a on a significant long-term deal, and remains effective in team-defensive schemes. He struggles against iso-post scorers due to his below-average length, and has had difficulty finding his footing in a jump-shooting offense, but it’s far-fetched to say he has become a liability. In an ideal scenario, Noah plays 20-25 minutes at center, Porzingis plays 10–20 and Hernangomez fills in the rest.
Even if Porzingis is not at center, however, the Knicks will be successful the more they employ Anthony at the four. Watch on the clips below, as he single-handedly reversed the Nets matchup by dominating at his sweet spot in the post at the four position. His athleticism, decision-making and shot-making ability are almost impossible to stop for opposing power forwards.
Another bright spot on the Knicks has been Justin Holiday. Originally imagined by many fans to be a throw-in to the Derrick Rose trade, Holiday has proven himself a more effective wing-defender off the bench than Lance Thomas who has been hampered by lower-body injuries in the early season. Holiday has legitimate versatility, with the ability to guard ones through fours and is shooting 43% from distance to start the season. I’m confident that Holiday was a main reason, if not the driving factor in allowing Langston Galloway to sign with New Orleans this off-season. Holiday is a more effective player and athlete, and has better length and size than Galloway. Over the course of their careers, their statistical profiles are almost identical.
Yet, in the early season, Holiday has a superior true shooting % and defensive box plus-minus. He’s been a weapon for the Knicks defensively, is consistent from three, appears in the majority of the most efficient lineups, and was no throw-in to the Rose trade. For example, on the play below, watch how quickly he recovers after biting on the Barnes pump fake to block the mid-range jumper and sprint the floor for a transition layup.
In my view, the Knicks most significant issue this season has been in their propensity to allow their opponents a copious amount of free throws. Since my last article, the Knicks have sacrificed almost 31 FT attempts per game. Discounting the Mavericks win, where they held Dallas to 11 FT attempts, that number is 36 FT attempts per game. They have gone 2–3 since November 4th despite allowing a 43% FG percentage and 31% 3pt percentage. If they want to reach the playoffs, they need to be more disciplined defensively. Otherwise, the free points allowed on a consistent basis will force the Knicks to play brilliantly each night if they hope to manage a .500 record.
An interesting wrinkle in the Knicks defense, taken primarily from Rick Carlisle, was the use of zone multiple times throughout the game against Toronto. Hornacek emphasized that its incorporation was due mostly to the Raptors’ poor outside shooting, as well as a heavy reliance on DeRozan’s isolation ability in the early part of the season. The zone was effective, producing two stops. Between the zone and Noah’s benching in the second half of the Dallas game, Hornacek has shown a tendency to be creative and adjust his process spontaneously, and both decisions have paid off.
Finally, the most impressive part of the Knicks season thus far has been the 2nd-year leap by Kristaps Porzingis.
KP has been spectacular, upping his FG% and 3pt% from 42% and 33% respectively to 48% and 40%. He is attempting the same amount of field goals as last season per 36 minutes, but is generating 4 more points in those shot attempts. He has decreased his turnover percentage, increased his FT rate and upped his PER to 21 and true shooting percentage to 59.8%. He has shown increased ability off the dribble, is more comfortable with his jump shot, and can score efficiently in the post.
Below, Porzingis shows off a mini-Dirk step back that exemplifies his improved post ability. He recognizes the mismatch, quickly establishes position, and is decisive with his move set.
On this play, Porzingis identifies the weak side flex cut for an easy dunk.
Here, he shows off the step-back jumper off the dribble.
Porzingis’s offensive potential is staggering, and he becomes a game-breaker at the center position. His size, shooting ability and rim protection are three assets never put together so effectively in one player in my memory. As his legs continue to get stronger, and he becomes more effective as a reliable singular rebounder, he’ll be extremely difficult to game-plan for.
The Knicks have four of their next five games at home, and thus a chance to rebound from some of their poor defensive performances over the past two weeks. As they continue to gel and become more comfortable with one another, I expect their defense to steadily improve as each player becomes more familiar with their individual responsibilities within the system. Hopefully Lance Thomas can get healthy and return to his form of last season, giving the team another reliable wing defender and three point shooter. I also hope Joakim Noah can find room in the offense to be a consistent threat, or he will become unplayable against talented teams that can exploit his weaknesses. Nonetheless, Hornacek found great success in his “small ball” lineup against Dallas, and I expect to see more of it as the next few weeks play out. This team has talent, they just need to maximize it.
