Trading Carmelo Anthony
What would it look like?
Carmelo Anthony has spent six and a half seasons with the New York Knicks. In Knicks franchise history, Anthony is 8th in points, 3rd in threes, 6th in defensive rebounds, 2nd in player efficiency rating (PER), 2nd in offensive box plus-minus (OBPM), and has their 5th highest value over a replacement player (VORP). In 2012–13, Anthony led the Knicks to their best regular season finish since 1996–97 and finished 3rd in MVP voting behind LeBron James and Kevin Durant. His accomplishments in orange and blue are numerous and should be remembered fondly, however, the time may have come for a mutual farewell.
By all accounts, it seems Phil Jackson and the Knicks front office are ready to part with Carmelo. As mentioned previously, Anthony holds the cards in this relationship and thus far has been unwilling to waive his no-trade clause. However, with the Knicks continuing to slide in the Eastern Conference standings, the team appears ready to admit defeat on their offseason attempt to compile a contender and begin to build around Kristaps Porzingis.
The front office has been an underrated scout of talent the past couple seasons. The Knicks have done a brilliant job of identifying European prospects, namely Porzingis, Willy Hernangomez and Mindaugas Kuzminskas. Ron Baker was undrafted and has blossomed into a hopeful rotation guard. Marshall Plumlee has shown promise as another undrafted rookie. Jerian Grant was flipped into Justin Holiday who is likely the team’s second best wing defender and one of their top three point shooters. The Knicks no longer owe any future first-round picks, and would start from a relatively admirable place in terms of a rebuild with a core piece and a few young players.
However, the question remains, how can you possibly recoup value for Carmelo Anthony? The Knicks will never return similar compensation to what they offered Denver for Anthony. Can they look past this sunk cost and find an acceptable return despite negotiating from a place of weakness? Or will Anthony remain on the roster and continue to exacerbate the divide between him and management?
There are a variety of factors that play into a lack of leverage for the Knicks when it comes to moving Carmelo. For one, Anthony possesses a no-trade clause. He is 32 with a hefty salary and that salary carries a 15% trade bonus. His defense is less engaged than one would hope, and there are only a few destinations he would accept. The 15% trade kicker is especially significant. The 15% applies to the remaining games on his salary, and is applied across the remaining guaranteed years of his contract. Since he has an early termination option in 2018–19, that 15% is spread over this season and next. Therefore, his cap hit for this season will increase to about $29.5 million.
It is accepted that whatever the Knicks return for Anthony, should he be dealt, will not reach the proximity of his individual value. However, Anthony was spectacular in January, and it would behoove the Knicks not to explore all of their possible options, and play his potential suitors against each other to squeeze all possible assets out of an eventual deal.
In January, Anthony shot 46% from the field and 41% from 3. While he did not finish well at the rim, he converted on his mid-range opportunities at a 50% clip and contributed nearly seven rebounds and four assists per night. Any NBA team could use that production.
Sure, there may be drawbacks. As Phil Jackson said, Anthony holds the ball far too long on certain possessions and it can detract from the offense. According to NBA.com, 35% of his 2-point attempts come after holding the ball between 2–6 seconds, as opposed to 22% of his attempts after holding the ball under 2 seconds. He is shooting 43% on the longer possessions and 51% on the shorter ones. On his field goal attempts, his effective field goal percentage is 55.7% when he holds the ball under 2 seconds, but only 43.1% when he holds it between 2–6 seconds. Nonetheless, he’s a remarkable offensive talent and would be an asset to any contending team. Finding a team, and a deal to suit Anthony, however, proves the toughest task.
It is well known that Carmelo would accept a trade to join LeBron James in Cleveland. However, Cleveland has made it known that they have no intention of trading either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love to do so, and thus become almost an untenable destination. Formulating a trade without either player is almost impossible, and a non-starter should Cleveland make Tristan Thompson off-limits. The trade above is an example of a workable deal should Thompson be available. The Cavaliers would utilize a trade exception to acquire O’Quinn, who would help bolster their frontcourt depth in Thompson’s departure. Since the Cavaliers don’t have cap flexibility, the Knicks could utilize Boston as a third team to facilitate salary considerations.
Boston could receive Thompson to alleviate their rebounding and rim protection woes, and Shumpert would take Gerald Green’s place in the rotation. The Knicks would recoup $21 million in expiring contracts, send out another $20 million in long-term money, and ideally receive back a future pick in this scenario. This trade would do little to bolster the Knicks’ talent immediately, however, it would likely result in an attractive pick in the 2017 Draft, and would give the Knicks one of the cleanest cap sheets in the NBA moving forward.
Of the potential destinations for Anthony, the Clippers are the most likely. Anthony has a home in Los Angeles, is best friends with Chris Paul, and while he may be a better four, Anthony fits a starting lineup classically bereft of a small-forward. There is a trade that functions with Los Angeles and no third team. It would send Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson to the Knicks for Anthony. This is unattractive for several reasons.
First, the Knicks would be forced to take on Crawford’s contract, which is owed over $13 million each over the next few years. Any deal involving the Clippers and Knicks must involve Crawford in some fashion if the Clippers want to fit Anthony on their payroll. Rivers is an intriguing young piece, but Johnson offers no value to New York in their current state.
The Clippers used their full non tax-payer mid-level exception on Johnson last summer, placing their salary requirements at $114,740,032 for the season, about $2.6 million under the ‘hard cap’. Due to these limitations, they need to trade at least $26,996,281 in salary to acquire Anthony. Furthermore, it would be wise if that number is closer to $30 million so they don’t find themselves completely inflexible to sign buyout players. Trades could also be built swapping Johnson out for Paul Pierce, which is unlikely, or a combination of Luc Mbah a Moute and Brice Johnson, although, in that scenario, the Knicks would have to send a cheap player along with Anthony.
Based on this extremely tight salary cap situation and a largely disappointing package mainly consisting of Rivers and Crawford (along with potential 1st round draft considerations after 2020), the Knicks likely will require a third team to accommodate a trade sending Anthony to LA. The trade above is an example of a functional deal, as the Suns are over $13 million below the cap and can help take on a contract in exchange for a young player or pick. While the Suns have a litany of young big men, and O’Quinn may not suit their roster, this is another example of a trade that would net the Knicks two young players in Rivers and Johnson as well as significant cap space into this summer and next. LA could also choose not to sacrifice so much depth, and replace Anderson and Bass with Paul Pierce.
Both trades to the left are identical. The only difference is the team with cap space who would absorb Jamal Crawford’s contract. It was reported over the offseason that Philadelphia made a ‘significant offer’ to Crawford in free agency, and it is conceivable that both of these rebuilding teams would be interested in his veteran presence considering their low payrolls and youthful rosters. In a similar fashion to Phoenix, both Brooklyn and Philadelphia are teams that could facilitate a trade between NY and LA by absorbing Crawford’s undesirable contract.
The Knicks were said to be scouting the Celtics’ players last week with the idea of using their flexible cap sheet as assistance in facilitating a trade of Anthony to the Clippers. However, it’s challenging to construct a deal that would entice the Celtics to trade their $17 million in expiring contracts between Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko, let alone their young players. Should the Clippers consider trading Redick, a variation of the deal above could make sense. Boston would gain Redick, Johnson and O’Quinn as rotation pieces, while the Knicks would recoup two young players from the Clippers as well as Boston’s expiring money. Frankly, however, it’s unlikely the Clippers would be comfortable trading four or five players, and the Celtics likely have bigger things planned with the Johnson/Jerebko contracts in combination with their young players and draft assets.
One way the Celtics could factor into an Anthony-to-the-Clippers discussion would involve the Clippers’ 2019 draft pick, which is owed to Boston but is lottery protected. Should the Clippers offer to remove that protection, they would be permitted to trade their 2021 1st-round pick to the Knicks. Currently, the possibility of the 2019 pick actually conveying in 2020 disallows their ability to trade the 2021 selection. In exchange for removing that protection, the Celtics could theoretically send the Clippers one or two 2nd round picks, including the 2017 2nd-rounder they own from Minnesota. While Crawford, Rivers and Wesley Johnson for Anthony is almost a non-starter, a Crawford, Rivers, Brice Johnson, Mbah a Moute package along with the Clippers’ 2021 first round pick and the 2017 2nd round pick from Minnesota is a far more enticing offer.
Ingenuity negotiating these draft protections is likely the only hope the Knicks have to recoup legitimate value for Anthony should he be dealt to Los Angeles. In theory, as other teams see that Anthony could be had for a young player and some draft considerations, a team may be able to upstage the Clippers’ offer. However, once again, it would be Anthony with the final say on his destination. At this stage in the franchise and his career, it is likely time they mutually choose to part ways. It will be a bitter pill to swallow, especially with a trade centerpiece so uninspired as Austin Rivers, yet, it may lift a burden from the Knicks that they have held for the past few years, and allow the team to begin anew around Kristaps Porzingis.
