With Friends Like Us, Who Needs Enemies?
With America abstaining from the Unided Nations Security Council, the March 25 vote for immediate ceasefire passed unanimously amongst its members. This vote shows the latest shift in America’s attitude regarding the Israel-Hamas War.
To think America would abandon Israel would have been unfathomable in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks that occurred on October 7th. Quoting President Biden, he compared the attacks to “15 9/11s” and said “Israel must again be a safe place for the Jewish people. And, I promise you: We’re going to do everything in our power to make sure that it will be.”
By this latest action, it is clear that American foreign policy is not geared toward helping America’s most important ally in the region. If the Biden administration is successful in shifting its support away from Israel, would this help America’s foreign policy? Or, should America support Israel due to its own strategic interests?
If there is an expectation that morality should be used to argue what foreign policy America should follow, let us immediately end this expectation. Whether Israel or Palestine has the right to this specific land of the Levant is irrelevant to American foreign policy. Both sides have laid out their claims and reasoning for the land and will continue to do so long after this conflict.
To appropriate a quote from German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, “Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided but by iron and blood”. While both sides make valid points, America must be guided by its interests. However, we will dismiss one argument here and now.
Some of those supporting Palestine have argued that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. When the evidence is examined, the argument of genocide falls apart quickly. The Gaza media office said that Israel “dropped over 45,000 missiles and giant bombs” as of January 2024 (Middle East Monitor 2024). Other media outlets report that by mid-December, 29,000 bombs were dropped (Malshin and Shah 2023).
Considering that Israel’s air force has the ability to drop 1,000 bombs per day (Dyer 2023), the data in both cases seems reliable regarding the number of bombs dropped between the start of the war and December/January. The data for the casualties of the war is disputed between Gaza and Israel. Gaza reported that in March, there were over 32,000 deaths with nearly ¾ being children, women, and elderly (Presse 2024). Israel reported within the same period that there were over 26,000 deaths, with nearly half being Hamas militants (Ronzheimer and Martuscelli 2024).
While both figures risk bias, it is clear from either data source that genocide is not occurring. In one of the densest regions in the world where military targets are embedded within civilian infrastructure, Israel’s comprehensive bombing campaign resulted in less than one death per bomb. Either Israel is waging the least effective genocide in the history of mankind or they’re not committing genocide.
This also makes the assumption that all of the deaths are from the bombing campaign and none are from the ground campaigns wherein Israel has entered some of the most urban regions in Palestine. If Israel wanted to wipe Gaza from the map, it could; it clearly has the capability. At this time, the evidence is clear that Israel is not committed to erase Gaza and its people. While we can be sympathetic to the Palestinian people who are suffering now and had no involvement in the terrorist attacks on October 7th, when one wages war, there will be casualties that cannot be controlled nor stopped. If we were to assign blame for these casualties, we should blame those who started the war on October 7th.
With that being said, how should America react to this geopolitical situation? In simple terms, there is an entity that has been America’s longest and most important ally in the region; there is an entity that is not America’s ally and is run by a group of people who are not afraid to kill or kidnap Americans when possible.
If the former entity would achieve its war aims, America would be as secure as it was before or would be in a better position. If the latter group would achieve its war aims, there would be no Israel. Instead, there would be an anti-American country in one of the most volatile regions in the world next to one of the most vital bottlenecks in international trade. If we simply calculate the benefits and costs of an Israeli victory, Palestinian victory, or immediate ceasefire, then an Israeli victory would benefit America the most and a Palestinian victory would hurt America the most.
Then why would Biden shift away from Israel? Largely to placate key voters within the Democratic Party. With younger people within the Democratic Party supporting Palestine and Arab and Muslim Americans being key constituents in important states, such as Michigan, Biden is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Support Israel and America’s interest risks losing support at home in the 2024 election.
Considering a .32% swing from the 2020 election would have led to a tie in 2020 and a Trump victory in 2024 (Guglielmello 2024), a controversial issue with the most insignificant drop-in support could lead to significant changes in the Electoral College. It is a shame then that domestic politics is trumping the needs of America’s foreign policy.
In a geopolitical situation where there are no viable solutions, America should either keep or maintain policies that do not hurt its standing. If Hamas in Palestine were successful in its mission, it would be a detriment to America’s foreign policy. If Israel is handcuffed, this would risk America’s foreign policy. The only path forward that alleviates this risk is to support Israel while not directly getting involved in this situation.
