7.19–7.26 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker
An aggregate weekly pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates.
— Please check out the background post on this project if it is your first time reading.
— Our initial dataset from 7.3–7.10 was detailed here.
— Data from the week of 7.11 was detailed here
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
Support Gain/Lost
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
There are 6 metrics we monitor on a daily basis across each state:
— Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Language Analysis
Building off the “Support Gained v. Lost” classification, we are aggregating an anonymized dataset of social posts that represent support for each candidate. This dataset allows us to compare and analyze the language used by “Biden Supporters” v. “Trump Supporters.”
From this analysis, we can better understand the issues/topics/trends that cause voters to express support or opposition toward a candidate. It also exposes overall patterns from the language used between the two supporter datasets.
— The analysis is made possible by our partners at Relative Insight.
During the dates of 7.19, in battleground states. we processed:
— 2,192,641 words from 93,438 total social posts of Biden Supporters.
— 1,747,695 words from 75,962 total social posts of Trump Supporters.
Topline: In general Biden supporters continued the trend we had seen in previous weeks of discussing the American death count due to COVID. And despite happening late in our dataset, the news around The Reagan Foundation’s request for The RNC and Trump Campaign to discontinue using his name in fundraising surfaced strongly in Biden supporter posts.
Trump supporters continued their criticisms toward Joe Biden’s policy positions on issues that impact US suburban communities. They also echoed a Biden campaign staffers apparent mocking of a police officer.
Biden Supporter Phrase Differences:
x22.3 Relative Difference— “Reagan Foundation asks”
x15.9 Relative Difference — “@realDonaldTrump 140,000”
x16.7 Relative Difference — “150,000 Americans”
Trump Supporter Phrase Differences:
∞ Relative Difference — “staffer mocked cops”
x34.8 Relative Difference — “campaign staffer”
x74.0 Relative Difference — “suburbs via’
x32.6 Relative Difference — “China Accountable”
Daily Support Gained/Lost Tracker
Here we examine day-by-day “Support Gain/Lost” by battleground state + the volume and topics of the discussion around each candidate.
The data is compiled via social intelligence systems monitoring each battleground state with our partner Eyesover Technologies.
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
Arizona Support Gained/Lost:
Arizona most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Colorado Support Gained/Lost:
Colorado most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Florida Support Gained/Lost:
Florida most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Iowa Support Gained/Lost:
Iowa most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Maine Support Gained/Lost:
Maine most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Michigan Support Gained/Lost:
Michigan most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Minnesota Support Gained/Lost:
Minnesota most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
North Carolina Support Gained/Lost:
North Carolina most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
New Hampshire Support Gained/Lost:
New Hampshire most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Nevada Support Gained/Lost:
Nevada most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Pennsylvania Support Gained/Lost:
Pennsylvania most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Texas Support Gained/Lost:
Texas most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
Wisconsin Support Gained/Lost:
Wisconsin most discussed topic in the social conversation around each candidate:
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has consulted with other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
