Immigration Rose in 2015
Or, Why Forecasting is Hard
In previous posts, I’ve offered my best-guesstimate of total immigration into the United States, also outlining the changing ethnic mix of immigration, and the role of deportation.
Well, we’ve got enough data to make some statements about immigration in 2014 now! Total immigration rose from 1.49 million immigrants in 2013 to 1.64 million in 2014, with upticks in both legal and illegal immigration. Legal immigration rose from about 990,000 to 1,016,000. Illegal immigration, meanwhile, I think rose from around 500,000 to about 625,000. That’s based on the fact that border apprehensions grew in 2014, while benchmark estimates of the population residing in the United States without legal authorization also appear to be stable or slightly up. Given other available data on deportations and some plausible guesses at mortality, and we get something like 575,000 to 725,000 illegal entrances into the United States.
But here, let me just show you some graphs. First, the total number of immigrants:
Next, immigrants, divided by national population, so the rate of immigration.
But maybe you don’t believe my figures. Maybe you believed all that punditry about how the wave of Mexican immigration was finished. Maybe I’m doing too much guesswork for you.
So here’s the American Community Survey’s immigration figures for the last few years, alongside the Population Estimates Series’ net migration statistics:
Gross ACS-measured inflows have been rising since 2009! Now, granted, that includes numerous non-immigrant inflows, like students. But still, the particularly sharp increase in 2014 seems notable.
And look at the PEP figures too! A big spike in 2014, and stability at that higher level in 2015. These levels are near the records set in the early 2000s.
Now, again, net inflows aren’t the same as immigration per se, because they include some non-immigrant arrivals, and account for outflows of immigrants and natives.
Immigration rose in 2014 no matter how you measure it.
Depending on what metric you use, it could be above-record levels (ACS), near-record levels (PEP), or still quite a bit below recent levels (my immigration estimate). But no matter the method, it’s higher than 2014, and the earliest indicators would seem to lend support to the idea that inflows remained high or even rose further in 2015.
Pundits Are Backward-Looking
Even When They Forecast
Several months ago I had a Twitter exchange with somebody (I forget who) where I suggested that the well-documented decline in Mexican immigration might not last forever. I suggested that, with slightly different economic conditions, immigration could pick up again. The person I was talking to said no, no, that’s not so: this decline is proof that the immigration surge was a demographic imbalance in Mexico that’s no righting itself.
Well, I believe the demographic imbalance story generally. But not as an explanation for short-term changes. B
It turns out, I find that the total number of Mexican immigrants may have modestly increased in 2014. I say may because I don’t have the exact breakdown by nationality of immigrants apprehended at the border; there is a significant decline in total apprehensions of Mexicans from 2013 to 2014, but some of that is likely due to the decline in deportations and removals since 2011; being a larger share of the population already in the United States, Mexicans seem more likely to be a larger share of the deported population. I readily accept criticism on this front for anyone who wants to hurl some my way.
Commenting on the Pew Center’s forecast of falling Hispanic migration a while back, I said, “ This might happen. But I don’t think so. I suspect we will indeed see rising Asian migration, and continuing volatility in Hispanic migration, but we will also see rising African migration.” Hey look, Hispanic migration actually rose. Now, granted, African migration declined ever-so-slightly (though remains at very high levels historically speaking). And, as Pew and I both predicted, Asian migration also rose, led by India and Southeast Asia. Though, granted, elsewhere I did indicate that I expected a further decline in Mexican immigration.
The point of all this is to note how hard it is to forecast future immigration. All the “intelligent punditry” of the last year or two has suggested that immigration from Mexico was decreasing substantially. I find that all that intelligent punditry is likely wrong. Meanwhile, all the histrionics of another group of commentators would make you think illegal immigration was surging: and it is rising, but remains well below even recent levels.
Nobody likes a forecast of “Partly cloudy with a chance of rain,” because it can seem like the forecaster isn’t giving you any useful information. But in this case, that’s probably the best forecast.
Check out my Podcast about the history of American migration.
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I’m a graduate of the George Washington University’s Elliott School with an MA in International Trade and Investment Policy, and an economist at USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. I like to learn about migration, the cotton industry, airplanes, trade policy, space, Africa, and faith. I’m married to a kickass Kentucky woman named Ruth.
My posts are not endorsed by and do not in any way represent the opinions of the United States government or any branch, department, agency, or division of it. My writing represents exclusively my own opinions. I did not receive any financial support or remuneration from any party for this research. More’s the pity.
