Migration in Greater Cincinnati
How the Kentucky Side of the River is Attracting Migrants
I’ve written previously on patterns of internal migration within Kentucky. Over the next few weeks, interspersed with other topics, I’ll write some highlights of specific Kentucky regions. For my first “Kentucky regional spotlight,” I’ll look at migration in the Cincinnati suburbs of northern Kentucky.
Defining the Region: Which Counties are Included?
The region assessed had a 2010 population of 438,000 individuals, of which 370,00 lived in Boone, Kenton, and Campbell counties. These three counties are all immediately adjacent to Cincinnati. Owen, Gallatin, Carroll, Grant, and Pendleton counties are also included. This definition is similar to the Kentucky counties included in the Cincinnati metro area, with three differences. First, I have excluded Bracken County, and included it in Northeastern Kentucky, along with nearby Maysville. Second, I have included Owen and Carroll counties, as they seemed no less well placed with Cincinnati than with Louisville or the Bluegrass. In terms of migration, Boone, Campbell, and Kenton make up almost 90% of the gross migration flows to and from the region, thus the inclusion or exclusion of certain outlying counties makes relatively little difference.
As satellite imagery shows, the region in question has several urbanized sectors, including Florence, and the urban areas immediately across the river from Cincinnati in Campbell and Kenton counties. But beyond those areas, the country rapidly becomes rural. Historically, Cincinnati’s prawl has been on the Ohio side, with growth in Kentucky a much more recent phenomenon.
Greater Cincinnati Loses Migrants to Other Kentucky Regions
I’ve briefly summarized the internal migration record of the Greater Cincinnati-KY area in the past, but here provide a slightly more detailed snapshot. Boone, Kenton, and Campbell counties especially lose large amounts of migrants to the Bluegrass, Louisville, and the Western Pennyroyal. Meanwhile, the region is gaining from Northeastern Kentucky and Outer Appalachia, especially those counties along the I-64 corridor, Maysville, and Ashland.
On net, the Cincinnati suburbs experience significant out-migration within the state of Kentucky, as I’ve visualized above. Viewed strictly within a Kentuckian context, Greater Cincinnati’s migration record isn’t very good. Over 3,700 people left the region for other parts of the state, while just 5,500 moved in. Losing 1,800 people per year to the rest of the state is not a trivial loss.
University enrollment dynamics may be one big reason those counties lose migrants to the rest of Kentucky. Northern Kentucky has some of the best high schools in the state, and the area is pretty firmly in UK territory as opposed to UofL or any Ohio schools. It’s highly likely that the region produces high school graduates well-qualified for education in the various schools around the Bluegrass and beyond, and that those students who do get such an education often do not immediately return. In areas with low-performing high schools, students are more likely to not attend college, or attend local community and lower-tier schools. But in areas with higher-performing high schools and a strong middle-class economy, like Northern Kentucky, well-ranked public schools and mid-tier private schools are probably prime college destinations: UK, Centre College, Transylvania University, and others all recruit heavily in the area, accounting for at least several hundred migrants every year.
Those kids may then be well-positioned for a professional career that takes them well beyond Covington or Newport. As the area is suburban and suitable for families (thus implicitly may have high birth rates), it’s likely that this education-driven regional out-migration for education could continue unabated for a long time to come.
The Kentucky Side of the River Gains from the Midwest, Loses to the South
While Kentucky’s part of Cincinnati loses migrants within the Commonwealth to the tune of about 1,800 people per year, it gains about 1,300 migrants from other states. Locals move to other parts of Kentucky, while out-of-state folks move into Covington and Newport, especially from Ohio. In fact, an extremely disproportionate amount of the migration into the area comes from Hamilton County, Ohio: which includes Cincinnati proper.
The last 20 years have seen northern Kentucky become a preferred suburb of Cincinnati due to improving access and affordable housing. The area’s rapid population growth driven by transplants from Hamilton County, especially in the last 5 years as shown here, is a classic case of suburbanization. However, it is also notable that the Kentucky suburbs are remarkably close to Cincinnati’s downtown, relatively affordable, and have super-abundant bridges to allow easy commutes for drivers. Complete with a wide range of neighborhoods, northern Kentucky has a strong appeal for Cincinnatians looking to get out of Hamilton County but stay very close to downtown. Even migrants from further states like Pennsylvania or Oklahoma may choose to live in northern Kentucky while working or attending school in Cincinnati thanks to the easy commute.
Losses to the rest of the nation are most likely driven by job growth and affordability. Much as Covington and Newport are gaining from Cincinnati thanks to more affordable living, many southern cities with similar price levels but faster job growth are attracting migrants. Furthermore, as the older population of Northern Kentucky ages and is displaced by new Cincinnati-centric migrants, many are retiring southwards. Migration to California is, I suspect, about job and educational demand. All that said, many of the states listed have small sample sizes with high margins of error for their migration estimates, thus we shouldn’t read too much into them. The big story here really is Ohio, and especially Cincinnati proper.
Bridging the River: If We Build It, They Will Move
The point about bridges may be worth repeating. As shown at left, Cincinnati has 5 car bridges crossing the Ohio directly into the city’s downtown, including two interstate bridges. Two more interstate bridges are outside of the map window here for the metro area’s outer loop.
Washington, DC, meanwhile has the same number of bridges across the Potomac River (plus 3 more on the outer loop). However, the Cincinnati metro area has 2 million people compared to DC’s 5 million.
Another river city, Philadelphia, has just 3 downtown bridges, and a fourth several miles downriver. Philadelphia has 6 million residents.
But the real extreme is New York City. There are just 3 crossings over the Hudson into Manhattan and the Bronx, as well as a fourth directly to Long Island and a fifth much further north. Depending on how you count it, these bridges serve a metro area of between 8 and 28 million people.
The list could go on. St. Louis, Richmond, Memphis, Louisville, and many others: Cincinnati’s downtown is peculiarly well-connected to its over-the-river suburbs, which has facilitated massive migration in recent years. The cities I found with similarly impressive bridge networks were Pittsburgh and Portland, though mostly over narrower channels of water.
Some of these bridges go back a long way. But the 1970s and 1990s both saw new bridges being constructed, and then subsequent migration-driven population booms in northern Kentucky. Kentucky legally owns most of the Ohio River, and any Federal funding to build or maintain Ohio River bridges will disproportionately flow to Kentucky. The bridges are, by and large, named for Kentuckians, despite connecting to a city based in Ohio. I don’t have any explicit evidence on this, but it is possible that Kentucky authorities may have pressed for bridge spending (state, local, and federal dollars) in order to compete for Cincinnati residents and capture some of those taxes. Kentucky-Ohio river disputes go back centuries, and it would be no surprise if Kentucky has been building bridges excessively in order to capture Ohioan taxpayers too.
Is Northern Kentucky Actually Affordable and Easy to Access?
It’s possible to explore just how big an impact these bridge connections may have. The real estate company Trulia produces detailed, interactive maps of local data that I’ll use for the below charts exploring commute times, housing affordability, crime, and transit usage.
Commuting From Covington and Newport to Cincinnati Really is Easy
The map at left shows areas with driving commute times into downtown Cincinnati of 15 minutes or less. Northern Kentucky performs very well in this regard, with short commutes extending all the way out to Florence. The shorter commutes clearly follow road, bridge, and river contours, suggesting the pre-eminent role of roads for Cincinnati transit.
Public Transit is Better in Kentucky
Kentucky performs even better on public transit. The Cincinnati area (and especially the Transit Authority of Northern Kentucky, TANK) is relatively reliant on bus-transit, which, like cars, depends on bridges and highways. Short transit commutes are almost exclusively located in Kentucky. The much wider transit access in Kentucky has two effects: it makes suburban living easier, and reduces congestion on the bridges, making car commuting easier for the other commuters.
Northern Kentucky is More Affordable
The map at left shows a rental price index. New home prices for purchase follow a similar trend. While Cincinnati has some affordable areas, the affordable areas with the best commutes are almost all across the river in Kentucky. The combination of affordability with an easy commute is a potent draw for migration and economic development. Of course, economic development will ultimately lead to rising prices and growing density, so these amenities won’t lead to a permanent Cincinnati out-migration.
Enormous credit goes to the team at Trulia for making what is simply the most easily-usable local area mapping tool on the web.
Northern Kentucky’s Cincinnati suburbs succeed in attracting migrants from outside of Kentucky, and especially from the Ohio side of the river. This is largely thanks to easy access to Cincinnati’s downtown and affordable mid-density housing options, as well as high-quality primary and secondary schools. In this case, interstate migration includes much short-range migration based on neighborhood effects. This migration source may also fade with time if housing prices in Covington and Newport rise, or if the transportation situation changes.
Meanwhile, the very family-friendly appeal that makes the region competitive for interstate migration gives it high out-migration into the Bluegrass. This is actually a pretty healthy sign of things to come. These communities are effectively accessing the job opportunities and economic dynamos of a major city within just a few minutes’ commute while also enjoying many of the amenities of a smaller community. This is facilitated by a disproportionate number of bridges and underdeveloped neighborhoods ripe for renewal. Even if interstate migration doesn’t fully compensate for in-state migration, many suburbanizing migrants are likely to start families and put down some roots.
Finally, the legal, geographic, and psychological barrier of the Ohio River has a role to play. Crossing the Ohio River isn’t just leaving Cincinnati, it’s leaving the midwest, leaving Ohio, entering new taxing and regulatory jurisdictions, and a different cultural zone. For a long time, this barrier led to the Kentucky side of the river remaining underdeveloped. But in recent decades, northern Kentucky has sprung to life with new economic strength. Even with local out-migration, the overall migration record tells a pretty good story about northern Kentucky.
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Follow me on Twitter. Follow my Medium Collection at In a State of Migration. I’m a grad student in International Trade and Investment Policy at the George Washington University’s Elliott School. I like to write and tweet about migration, airplanes, trade, space, and other new and interesting research. Cover photo source.
