Migration in Greater Louisville
Kentucky’s Biggest City is Barely in the Commonwealth
On Friday, I continued my focus on Kentucky’s migration story by taking a closer look at the Cincinnati suburbs in northern Kentucky. Now, I want to look at Greater Louisville. In many ways, Louisville is the logical follow-up to Cincinnati, as it forms a (somewhat smaller) mirror image. Both are in geographically similar areas, both have many similar demographic traits, both share a legacy as river-industrial cities, and both have a mixed southern-midwestern culture. Cincinnati is larger, and Indiana and Ohio do have different governments, but the many similarities make comparison irresistible.
Defining the Region: Which Counties are Included?
The Greater Louisville region I’ve defined had a 2010 population of just over 1,000,000 people, of which almost 750,000 lived in Jefferson County. The counties selected are identical to those in the Louisville Metro Area for Kentucky, except that I punted Meade County out into the Western Pennyroyal. Without the inclusion of the Indiana counties in the Louisville metro area, Meade County was completely disconnected from my Greater Louisville region, and fully surrounded by the Western Pennyroyal.
The satellite image at left of the area tells a similar story as that of Cincinnati: major urban center on one side of the river, lots of sprawl around it, and then a much smaller amount of built up areas on the opposite bank. A string of smaller cities link Louisville to Lexington to the east, much as smaller cities link Cincinnati to Columbus.
Greater Louisville Has Weak Migration Ties to the Rest of Kentucky
Greater Louisville has no extreme migration flows withother Kentucky regions, largely because its total volume of migration is very low. Only about 4.7% of the area’s population moved across any county line on average from 2008–2012, the lowest of any region except Inner Appalachia, and total migration in and out of Greater Louisville into other KY regions only came to about 2.4% of the population, again the lowest of any region except Greater Cincinnati, although the Jackson Purchase was close.
Given the small volume of migration, it’s hard to make generalized conclusions about specific regional relationships. The difference between Louisville’s moderate losses to the Bluegrass and its moderate gains from Greater Cincinnati just aren’t very substantial.
Because gross migration is low and net migration rates are not very extreme, we can say that Louisville does not have close migratory ties to the rest of the state. In terms of Kentucky regional migration, Louisville really is something of its own world. Aside from having an inferior basketball team, the city’s population is also less likely to have some other part of Kentucky as a piece of their personal story.
It may be that my Bluegrass-born-and-raised elitism is coming on strong here, but I would invite Louisville commentators to offer their two cents as well. Louisville isn’t losing large amounts of migrants to the rest of Kentucky in a bad way, or attracting them: it just doesn’t connect. Why?
Louisville’s Migration Shows Few Trends, But Loses to Indiana
Greater Louisville enjoys a net interstate migration rate similar to Kentucky’s part of Greater Cincinnati: about 0.3% of the population, or 3,000 people a year. It shares another similarity with the city of Cincinnati itself: like Cincinnati, Louisville loses migrants to the other side of the river. But that’s pretty much where the similarities in migration end.
While Northern Kentucky’s migration appeared to show some regional trends, Greater Louisville’s migration record is impressive for the absence of a trend. The area loses population to North Carolina, but gains from South Carolina. It loses to Texas, but gains from Florida. It loses to Indiana, but gains from Ohio. It loses to Illinois, but gains from Wisconsin. All around the nation, it’s hard to find a trend.
Louisville and Cincinnati: Trends in Migration
Instead of looking for a trend, a more fruitful way to understand Louisville’s interstate migration is to compare it to Cincinnati. Both have similar net migration rates, but they get there different ways.
The Ohio part of the Cincinnati metro area (Cin-OH) loses about 1,200 people to northern Kentucky (Cin-KY) per year. That comes to about 0.07% of that Cin-OH’s population, and 0.27% of Cin-KY’s population. Meanwhile, Cin-KY actually loses a very slight amount of people to the rest of Ohio. In numbers, about 4,700 people moved from Cin-OH to Cin-KY per year, while about 3,500 people made the opposite trip. Meanwhile, about 1,300 people moved into Cin-KY from other parts of Ohio, while about 1,400 people made the reverse trip. In other words, Northern Kentucky’s appeal to Ohio is absolutely and entirely about proximity to Cincinnati.
For Louisville, that’s not the case. My Greater Louisville region (Lou-KY) lost about 500 people a year to the Indiana counties in the Louisville Metro Area (Lou-IN) per year. In other words, Lou-KY lost about 0.05% of its population to Lou-IN (less than Cin-OH), which amounted to a gain of 0.18% of Lou-IN’s population (less than for Cin-KY). In both cases, Louisville’s performance with its over-the-river suburbs exceeds that of Cincinnati.
Why is Greater Louisville, Kentucky outperforming Greater Cincinnati, Ohio in terms of cross-river migration? There are many possible reasons. I can’t help but notice that Louisville has far fewer bridges per capita, and fewer other transit options, and that the Kentucky-side suburbs are not yet as sprawled or crowded as Cincinnati’s. This suggests that, if new bridges are build, Indiana may be the “winner” in terms of total migration.
Perhaps more importantly, even as Ohio’s industrial sector has struggled over the last several decades, Kentucky’s has seen relative strength. Increased foreign investment in auto manufacturing, continuing below-average energy costs, excessively generous tax incentives, and quality public universities in Louisville and Lexington may have allowed the industrial base of the Bluegrass to gain ground on Ohio and Indiana, keeping more people closer. Military employment may also matter, as the southern Louisville suburbs may house many military personnel associated with Fort Knox.
Louisville: Little Connection to the Indiana Side of the River
Much as I did for Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky, we can look at how Louisville and southern Indiana compare on various indicators relating to commutes, crime, transit, affordability, and other variables.
Indiana is Not Well Connected for Commuting
The fact that there are very few ways across the Ohio River in Louisville shows up in the data. While Cincinnati had short commutes in roughly equal ranges on both sides of the river, short commutes in Louisville are overwhelmingly on the Kentucky side. The lack of bridges and much lower Indiana transit usage can explain this.
Louisville Transit is Almost Entirely Kentuckian
Less data is available in Louisville to explore public transit commute times. But we do have data on how many people commute by transit. Unlike in Northern Kentucky, where transit commuting was distributed across both sides of the river, in Louisville, virtually all transit-usage is on the Kentucky side. This poor transit connectivity may relate to poor bridge connectivity, and contributes to Louisville’s reduced migratory connectedness with Indiana.
Indiana’s Side is Still Affordable
Indiana’s side of the river has some affordable neighborhoods, but Louisville has more affordable areas than Cincinnati as well. It also has some very expensive areas, of course. This data is for house prices, as rental data had many gaps. The availability of affordable housing within Louisville proper may reduce the appeal of migrating to Indiana to get lower prices, especially with the longer commutes.
Affordable Neighborhoods in Louisville Have Higher Crime
However, while Louisville has affordable neighborhoods, they’re mostly higher-crime neighborhoods. In order to find low-cost, low-crime neighborhoods, Louisville residents have to move further into the suburbs or into Indiana, increasing commute times substantially. This may drive relatively greater residential sprawl than otherwise. Improved connection to Indiana, however, while it could lead to out-migration from Louisville, might help relieve sprawl and improve access to Louisville’s downtown area for more workers and customers.
The most striking features of Greater Louisville’s migration profile mostly relate to how little migration is actually occurring: in terms of migration within Kentucky, around the nation, or in comparison to Cincinnati, Louisville simply experiences less migration. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, and may reflect an urban area that simply does a good job catering to the needs of its residents. Overall, net migration into Greater Louisville from out of state is similar to migration into northern Kentucky, while its in-state migration record is significantly better.
Building new bridges to Indiana may actually lead to out-migration from Kentucky: but that doesn’t make new bridge construction a bad policy. New bridges might allow the Louisville metro area to expand, welcome new people, keep a reign on the cost of living by expanding viable living and working areas, and help locals explore new opportunities for advancement. While a large part of this effect might be Kentuckians moving to Indiana, the appropriate focus of economic development is on people instead of places. Even if greater connectedness with Indiana may lead to some migration out of Louisville, those bridges may allow more people to lead more satisfied and affordable lives, and in turn devote more of their time and money to more highly-valued or productive activities.
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Follow me on Twitter. Follow my Medium Collection at In a State of Migration. I’m a grad student in International Trade and Investment Policy at the George Washington University’s Elliott School. I like to write and tweet about migration, airplanes, trade, space, and other new and interesting research. Cover photo source.
