Trends in mobile gaming 2014 (3/3)
The third and final in a three-part exercise in predictive geekery
Read the first and the second articles in this three-part series we’re wrapping up today.
Achievements
Online leaderboards aren’t enough, and developers are importing the achievement and trophy system from consoles. This is something nobody can stop at this point (not that they want to), but deserves a brief consideration before things get out of hand. Achievements are a sort of reward, but in themselves are quite unrewarding.
We’re seeing some developers pump up their games with random achievements. These achievements don’t offer anything of value apart from themselves, as opposed to a windfall of premium currency, or a new weapon, or something. People won’t throw themselves into an achievement hunt if there isn’t real prey to wolf down.
Next year, we’ll regrettably see how developers of all sorts will start to promote their games with sentences like “over 100 achievements to unlock”, which is nothing but empty nonsense. It seems inevitable, unless major console developers were to change their minds and make something actually useful instead of so many trophies, influencing the rest.
Fly online, you fools!
Now that there are data plans for everyone, and developers are sufficiently skilled in the fine art of online multiplayers, it may be the time to recap what’s going on with MMOs and MMORPGs.
In brief, online multiplayer features are great, no matter if we’re talking about Draw Whatever, Need for Speech, or Angry Burps. Users like it, developers know it, and it can multiply income. Users want to play against or along with someone, thats a fact (though co-op playing is the never-ending unfinished business of video gaming). Been there, done that: it’s a growing snowball.
MMORPGs have found a niche in which to dwell. Since they are one of the most profitable genres thanks to purchasable vanity items and have a user base well accustomed to microtransactions, they will prevail and grow. It won’t be through true multiplatform systems able to join PC, console and mobile gamers at once, though, but rather by creating and maintaining a fertile and prosperous mobile user base. They’re expensive to upkeep and need regular updates, but they work pretty well and are extremely popular in Asia. Meanwhile, Western titles are scarcer but powerhouses, and lucky will be he who joins together the power of both audiences.
Anyway, online gaming will be bound to freemium forever and ever, because that’s the only way to reach the critical mass required to keep them running.
Asynchronous doesn’t mean anachronistic
On the other hand, not everything must be online, online, online. Asynchronous turn based games encourage long term relationships between user and game, aren’t as data demanding, and allow optimal learning curves, therefore broadening the target audience.
Only a few tactical or trivia games will make use of asynchrony, even though it’s a model that can be exported and mixed to other genres. As far as we know, few developers are actually interested in developing the new Aworded, and the few developers who have explored the realm this year (as Abalone) haven’t broken through the noise.
Same goes for the two-players-on-one-device offline gameplay. I’m sure we’ll see a handful of great titles in 2014 (like as we saw Bitbattle and Dark Day LA) taking advantage of the tablet (up)rising. Some of them will be really interesting if they think outside of the box and integrate innovative stuff beyond being mere sophisticated board games.
However, these kind of games are slow and lazy dinosaurs in a world ruled by mammals, and the only chance a game with such characteristics has to become a title with multi-millions of downloads is, paradoxically, to have an awesome solo campaign.
Companions, familiars, and homunculus
If 2014 is going to be branded with something, it’ll be the massive arrival of so-called companions, i.e. games linked to the great games released on PC and consoles. It’s the relationship between mobile and non-mobile, so to speak — something we here at AZ often talk about. Every big release on console will unavoidably be receded and/or followed by a tie-in game plus mobile add-on. Yes, this is blockbuster film behavior — maybe taking it even further, since mobile games can work as mini-games inside the big game and enhance the overall experience.
Frankly, the rules are easy: before the big launch, we’ll see a shameless self-promotional app with lore, character creation, maps, and a big red button to preorder. After launch, there’ll be a tie-in game to grind all day long, bother your friends with your feats/vanity items, and an even bigger red button to purchase DLCs.
Curiously, I’d bet that this genre will be the most creative of them all. While film producers will continue hiring third parties for this or that poor variant of Temple Run (Hunger Games) or Candy Crush (Marvel) for their launches, video game companies will have to rack their brains as if there were no tomorrow.
Ubisoft did it quite well with Assassin’s Creed IV, although the mobile game and the console game didn’t talk to each other; Rockstar’s iFruit was also a neat example. Both are seeds of what we’ll see next year.
Indeed, we can start to bet right now about how The Witcher 3 mobile tie-in game will be: an alchemy-like game with potions, perhaps? And Dragon Age Inquisition? Will it have at least a Ferelden vademecum? Will the evil player in Fable Legends make use of an app to plan a strategy?
Dear readers, we may not know exactly how the best games next year will be, but know for sure that it’ll be in this field where we’ll see the most spectacular progress.
Rumble and Gamble
Gambling, which was gonna be the great and splendid success of 2013, didn’t disappoint experts, but went rather unnoticed by the masses. Revenue has increased and the numbers are indeed quite gross, mainly due to many online betting companies rather than actual online poker or casino games. In fact, 2014 will be the second year in a row we could talk — but we won’t — about mobile gambling as the next big thing.
Numbers will increase, more people who don’t care about mobile gaming will gamble and bet online, and the market won’t even blink an eye, as if it was a parallel reality unable to interact with the “standard” markets at all. Eventually, we can expect an increasing number of ads addressed to women. Watch too for lower-echelon games (bingo, slot-like machines) once all the standard male target audiences have been hailed.
We can also expect some kind of gambling games dealing with neither real money nor virtual currency, but rather coupons and discounts. It’s might be a far-fetched idea, but seems riper by the moment.
Likewise, we can see the first non-casino mobile games with real money bets because we’ve seen some tryouts this year, but they shouldn’t be a new standard.
Themes and R-rating
Some developers are strongly committed to certain causes, or they obviously look for ways to make their games more buzzed about and sought. App markets have been quite safe from alternative developers so far. Only a handful of games have been able to deliver a controversial message (Phone Story, Endgame Syria, My Life as a Refugee, In a Permanent Save State), and then only to a minority of users (well, it’s true that Apple policies don’t help much).
Fortunately, mobile gaming is also a great way to improve revenue for indie PC developers without too much effort, so we might see next year’s games as Papers Please. PC markets (thanks, Steam) have evolved, and PC devs will bring their games to mobile it doesn’t matter whether they’re ready or not. Low budget developers need a way to reach the front pages of the media and stores, and a good way to compensate for the lack of flashy 3D rendered graphics is still with a strong and powerful message to send. Next year we’ll talk more than ever about ecological and sociopolitical games, ethical and moral games, and games simple in mechanics but complex in concept.
Since there’s nothing in the whole world that hints even the slightest change in Google, Amazon or Apple TOS regarding nudity and adult content, no changes can be expected in this regard. You may or may not like it, but the truth remains that’s a shortcut that nobody will be able to take. Oh, sure, you can look for a black market elsewhere, but bear in mind that quality developers won’t invest time and money in a game that can only be sold in… well, that can’t actually be sold anywhere.
Conclusions
These three articles were about trends, and trends are just that, imaginary lines following previous points on a plane. Women didn’t wear Victorian dresses on a Monday and miniskirts the day after, and games didn’t evolve from Asteroids to Dead Trigger 2 overnight. Anyway, I hope these patterns come true over the next year. Some are safe bets, others are bolder, but I love them all the way they are.
Feel free to share this piece of opinion, assault my Twitter to leave your comments, or skip on over to my Wishlist for Mobile Gaming 2014.
