The @Mikecav5 Twitter Followers Guide to the Midterms: Governors’ Edition, Part II
On Thursday, I released Part I of my Gubernatorial previews which consisted mostly of uncompetitive and boring races. Today, we dip our toe into some competitive races. We’re going to be looking at the rest of the races that aren’t toss-ups. This includes 1 “Likely D” (1 R), 5 “Lean D” (3 D, 2 R), and 1 “Lean R” (1 D). These remaining races are competitive, fun, and will dictate the course of America for the next decade after 2020 redistricting. So just the health of our democracy at state. Some updates from Thursday’s piece. Cook moved South Dakota all the may from Likely to Toss Up, and Oklahoma from Likely to Lean. Well, let’s not waste any more time and get right into it.
Let’s start with the Likely D race.
Illinois- (Rauner) Bruce Rauner (R) vs. J. B. Pritzker (D)
Bruce Rauner has an abysmal approval rating in a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential since George H. W. Bush in 1988. After one term of a Republican governor, voters are ready to hand the governor’s mansion back to Democrats. Rauner has seen his approval rating drop to 27%, with 60% disapproving. It’s ironic that Rauner was swept into office due to the unpopularity of former governor Pat Quinn and will be driven out by his own unpopularity.
Rauner’s lack of popularity has stemmed from his refusal to sign a budget until the legislature passed a bill restricting the power of public sector unions. Democrats and Republicans voted to override the veto without enacting the law, and adding an income tax hike just to really stick it to Rauner.
Both Illinois senators are now Democrats; 11 of the 18 members of the House delegation are Democrats; H.W. Bush was the last R Presidential candidate to win the state. This election will just be another year Illinois proves itself to be a firmly blue state.
Any mid-tier candidate could have probably taken down Rauner this year with party help, but the fact that Democrats got a popular billionaire willing to spend almost $50 million of his own money, the party can allocate resources elsewhere and not worry about this Governor’s race.
J.B. Pritzker is worth $3.5 billion thanks to his family owning the Hyatt Hotel chain and being a managing partner and co-founder of the Pritzker Group. He is not a political newcomer, though. In 2008, he served as national co-chairman of the Hillary Clinton for President campaign after serving on legislative staffs for multiple Democratic members of congress. He’s had his pedal to the metal, and it doesn’t look like he’s letting up now that he’s all but assured to win the Governor’s mansion in Illinois.
On to the Lean D Races.
Michigan- (Open) Bill Schuette (R) vs. Gretchen Whitmer (D)
Republican nominee, Bill Schuette, has been current Governor Rick Snyder’s Attorney General for the last 8 years, but they haven’t always seen eye to eye. This has led Snyder to not endorse anyone in the Governor’s race this year. Although that may be a good thing for Schuette, considering Snyder has a net -15 approval rating in the state.
Snyder endorsed his Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley in the primary, but Calley only garnered 25% of the vote to Schuette’s 51%. In a state that Trump won, with more or less a top-tier candidate, Republicans should at least be favored in this race, right? Well, Democrats have their own top tier candidate as well.
Former Senate Majority Leader Whitmer, 47, was elected to the Michigan House of Representatives in 2001 and served until she won her election for State Senate in 2006. From 2011–2015, she served as Senate Minority Leader. She was thought to be a top contender for the 2014 race against Snyder but elected to not run. Instead, she served out her last term in the senate and was appointed to serve the last 6 months of Ingraham County prosecutor that was forced to resign.
4 years later, in a great political environment for Democrats, she is the favorite to win the governor’s race.
We’ve had a shit ton of polling here as pollsters look to atone for their errors in November of 2016, and former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer has been around 50% in all them. RCP average is Whitmer +9.7.
New Mexico- (Open) Steve Pearce (R) vs. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
Republican Susana Martinez won the Governorship in 2010 during the Republican wave election in an otherwise fairly blue New Mexico. She won reelection in 2014, another good year for republicans. Now that the seat is open, Democrats view it as a top pick up opportunity. This race has two House of Representative members facing off each other in Steve Pearce (R, NM-2) and Michelle Lujan Grisham (D, NM-1).
Steve Pearce previously ran for senate in 2008, winning the Republican nomination, then proceeded to lose the general election to Tom Udall. Pearce is also a climate change denier and an Obama birther conspiracist. Good guy.
Grisham, a more moderate member of the Democratic Party, is the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. She has been comfortably ahead in the polls, polling around 50% since mid-August. As long as there are no unforced errors, Grisham should be turning New Mexico into a Democratic Trifecta.
Let’s talk about the one Independent/Democratic Governorship that’s Lean R.
Alaska- (Walker) Bill Walker (I) vs. Mike Dunleavy (R) vs. Mark Begich (D)
The nation’s only independent governor, Walker faces an uphill battle to reelection thanks to former Alaskan Senator Mark Begich joining the race to Walker’s left. Begich and Walker will most likely split the left vote, clearing the way for former state senator Mark Dunleavy (R) to consolidate the R vote and win election relatively easily. Polling shows as much happening.
On their own, Begich or Walker would have a good shot to take down Dunleavy, but with both on the ballot, Dunleavy is favored in this race.
Three-way races are tough to predict, so a surprise may await us on November 6th, but Walker, along with Bruce Rauner (R-IL), joins the group of incumbent governors facing an uphill battle for reelection thanks to terrible approval ratings. We’ll just have to wait and see if Walker can get enough of the vote to get a second term.
Oklahoma- (Open) Kevin Sitt (R) vs. Drew Edmondson (D)
I wrote about Oklahoma in my last piece, and since then, Cook has moved them from Likely R to Lean R. A top-tier Democratic candidate in Drew Edmondson mixed with the energy resulting from the teachers strikes mixed with an outgoing unpopular governor could make a perfect storm for Democrats to take back the Governorship.
Thanks to a favorable democratic environment, these 3 Lean D seats look likely to stay Democratic.
Colorado- (Open) Jared Polis (D) vs. Walker Stapleton (R)
Outgoing Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper enjoys favorable approval ratings in the state and looks to improve his name recognition across the country as he is (probably) running for president in 2020.
Wow, 24 previews and this is the first mention of 2020; you should be proud of me.
Walker Stapleton, in my opinion, has one of the best names of the gubernatorial nominees.
*EDITOR’S NOTE: Agreed.
He also knows how to win statewide. He is currently serving his second term as State Treasurer, elected in a republican wave of 2010 and reelected in 2014. Stapleton is a second cousin of George W. Bush and Jeb Bush. His grandfather, Benjamin F. Stapleton, was also part of the KKK. Fun stuff.
Jared Polis took 44% in a competitive primary and is the frontrunner to keep this governor’s seat blue. If he wins, he will be the first openly gay governor to be elected. Jim McGreevey come out in the same speech he announced his resignation, and Kate Brown was the first bisexual governor elected in a 2016 special election.
Polis is the current representative from Colorado’s 2nd district and has a net worth of around $400 million making him one of the wealthiest House members.
We’ve only had one poll here in mid-September, and Polis led 47–40. A good national environment with a popular nominee, Democrats should hold on to this seat.
Oregon- (Brown) Kate Brown (D) vs. Knute Buehler (R)
As I mentioned above, Kate Brown was the first elected LGBTQ governor after she won a 2016 special election triggered when a corruption scandal forced previous Governor John Kitzhaber to resign less than a month after he was sworn into his 4th term as governor (Oregon law allows a person to serve more than 2 terms, but they cannot be more than 2 consecutive terms).
After winning the special election in 2016, Brown is running for her first full term against Oregon House of Representative member, Knute Buehler. The two faced off against each other once before, in 2012 election for secretary of state. Brown won 51–43. Will this matchup be any different?
In her almost full term as governor, Brown has a neutral approval rating of just +3. In her term as governor, she has signed strong gun control measures into law that expanded background checks, barred domestic abusers from owning guns, and created a process to seize firearms from people who might harm themselves or others. She has also signed important bills like raising the speed limit on state highways from 65 mph to 70 mph.
Buehler, a socially moderate republican, is relatively unknown in the state. Outside of his 2012 run for Secretary of State, he has served two terms in the Oregon House of Representatives.
Oregon is a relatively blue state, yet every 4 years, the governor’s race comes down to the wire. Democrats haven’t broken 51% in the governor’s vote since, ironically, John Kitzhaber’s reelection in 1988. That appears to be that case again this year as September polling has shown Brown unable to pull away and one poll from early September actually shows Brown down 2. Take these numbers with a grain of salt since two of the polls are from Republican groups. The one independent poll actually shows Brown up 10, and that feels more in line with what the race is.
Rhode Island- (Raimondo) Gina Raimondo (D) vs. Allan Fung (R)
Last but not least is the nation’s smallest state. Rhode Island has some weird politics. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Regan in 1984, yet before 2014, hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1992. In 2014, Raimondo only won election with 41% of the vote thanks to a competitive 3rd-party candidate.
The 2018 election is a rematch of the 2014 elections with current Cranston Mayor, Allan Fang, looking to improve on his 2014 showing and take down Raimondo. Raimondo took office in 2014 with the promise of reforming the state pension system, and she did. In doing so she pissed of the state’s unions, and her approval rating is just underwater at -2. She has been pro-business during her administration, which invited a primary challenge from the left.
Raimondo inherited a state that was hit harder than most by the recession. The unemployment rate is now way down, the state is off the brink of bankruptcy, and taxes weren’t raised in doing so.
Fang, mayor of the third largest city in Rhode Island, is running an orthodox republican campaign. He wants to make RI a Right-to-Work state, cut taxes, and was endorsed by the NRA in his 2014 bid.
A September poll by Roger Williams shows Raimondo with a 7 point lead over Fang.
Well, well, well. Part II, done. That leaves us with 9 races left to go over, all the Toss Ups. That’s when things start to get really fun.
