How Australia Is Crashing From ‘The Lucky Country’ To Third World

Mark Timberlake
Predict
Published in
4 min readSep 8, 2023

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From 1995 to 2023, Australia’s economic complexity fell from 57 to 93, behind Uganda; a decline that is accelerating: in 2019, Australia ranked 79th for economic complexity, behind Kazakhstan. Australia is ranked 50 places below Canada.

Australia’s top trading partner, China, rose from 51st to 19th over the same timeframe.

Australia has the highest dependency on manufactured imports and the lowest level of manufacturing self-sufficiency of any OECD country. About 70% of products exported, on a net basis, are non-value-added minerals and energy. Food, alcohol, wool, tourism and metal products, account for just under 30% of exports.

In contrast to most advanced economies, Australian exports lack both diversification and sophistication, which renders the economy vulnerable to shifts in commodity prices and denies the opportunity to invest human and financial capital in value-added products and services. Australia has failed to use its income from resources exports to transition the economy to an advanced industrial and technological society.

With the exception of a handful of companies, Australia exports almost nothing that requires a university degree to make.

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Mark Timberlake
Predict

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