Why We Can Go Extinct Within This Century — A Rational Perspective
The normalcy bias generates a false sense of security.
Every once in a while, I like to give my readers an existential crisis by reminding them of the many things that can go terribly wrong in the future.
This is one of those times, but I’m doing something a bit different. If you are looking for “10 ways the world could end”, this is not that kind of story. Instead of going into the specifics of the bad things that can happen in the future (like I did here), I will take a broader perspective and contemplate why it’s rational to think that those things can happen, to address the problem that we aren’t taking them seriously.
Let’s start with the following assertion: we have a non-negligible chance of going extinct within this century.
It’s normal to feel a bit skeptical about it. Many of us would probably agree that our unprecedented power gives us the capability to destroy ourselves, but this is just another trivia factoid, not a legitimate cause of concern.
If you tell people that you are genuinely worried, you would probably just look bad. Not too different from that doomsday guy in the movies holding a sign and yelling “the end is near!”.
