bitcoin2024 — Sleeping With The Enemy
I had a blast at bitcoin2024. It was my 3rd bitcoin conference, after my first two in Miami during the bubbles of 2018 and 2021. Nashville’s a spectacular venue (in sharp contrast with Brussels, the ETHcc venue), and the vibe was electric, given recent price action and the pending arrival of Trump.
But I left early Saturday morning, because I had no interest in seeing Trump or any of the the other politicians. And the most surprising thing to me about the event, is how obsessed the Bitcoin community is with Trump, RFK, and other politicians.
I LOVE Bitcoin
I made my first Bitcoin related investment in December 2013 when I bought half of BitcoinWallet.com for $25,000, with my friend Nico. So I’ve been around awhile. And I’m a massive Bitcoin bull. I have a 10-year $1M price target on bitcoin (published in January, 2021). I buy bitcoin everyday via Swan. So I’m ALL in.
And I’m all in because I see bitcoin as a community, with an immutable set of rules. It’s permissionless, so it’s up to you if you’re in or you’re out. And, IMHO, bitcoin is so beautiful, so elegant, so giving, that I can’t imagine a world where, everyday, for the rest of my life, more people aren’t going to see bitcoin and want to be a part of the glorious community.
I Got Into Crypto 24/7 In 2017 To Free Myself From Government Avarice, Corruption, Overreach & Incompetence
Two events lead me to see the crypto light in June, 2017. First, in January, I wrote that through a combination of corruption and incompetence, the U.S. had become a land of monopolies. And it’s only gotten worse in the interim, with ~70% of all tech market cap created in the last 10 years going to just six companies (Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, and nVidia). This has lead to a crippling of competition and the highest level of income inequality ever experienced in the U.S..
The other event was the government stole all of my assets in April 2017, after my wife sued me for divorce, and accused me of fraud. I had not committed fraud. And I was never charged of fraud. But I never got my assets back. That’s how thousands of SVB account holders saw bitcoin, one day they woke up and realzied their money wasn’t their money. They weren’t criminals. But the month after the bank collapsed bitcoin was up 50%.
So I found crypto, not because I’m a criminal, but because others, including my government, are criminals. If they don’t steal your money directly, they do so indirectly, through inflation. And now, via bitcoin, I don’t have to worry as much about criminals, including the government. I get to think about the government as much as, I believe, the government thinks about me.
So, I got into crypto because I wanted to get as far away from government as possible. I’m here because I think our government is broken, beyond repair. Neither party is solving our problems. And this decline has been going on for a long time. The U.S. has had an epic run, but, according to Ray Dalio, that epic run peaked in the early 60's:
I see no discernible change in the slope of the decline in blue above when democrats are in vs. republicans.
Sleeping With The Enemy
I appreciate that the government is not going away. I appreciate that more favorable U.S. crypto laws would be helpful in the near term. I support the great work of Coin Center and trailblazers like Caitlin Long. I apprecaite all the years of work by the community that went into getting a U.S. PResident to appear at the convention.
But, based on my life experience, I don’t believe that either party is going to fix our problems.
The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help. — Ronald Reagan
I get the democrats appear to be our enemies, so even if the republcians don’t fix our ills, at least they won’t be an impediemnt.
A Russian friend recently laughed that “Russians learn at a much earlier age than Americans to stay as far away from government as possible.”
I think the big winners of American politics are those that minimize the mind share thinking about politics. Most of us are going to have no impact. And I believe that for most of us, the time spent thinking about politics has a negative ROI.
KYC Vs. Freedom
I get KYC is not going away. They tell you they need it to stop criminals. To stop money laundering. That’s a lie. Money laundering happens at scale at major banks. When bankers get caught laundering money, no one ever goes to jail. The banks pay fines. And then … they keep on laundering. Year after year after year.
So what is KYC good for?
I Hope Trump’s Our Savior
I’m a massive bitcoin bull with or without good U.S. crypto regulations. I recognize that favorable crypto regulations could be very positive for prices, in the short term. But, in the long term, I have three major fears.
First, we’re giving tens of millions of dollars to politicians that could be spent building cool shit to move the industry forward. Will we get an ROI on that investment? I fear our millions are dwarfed by even larger contributions by big banks.
Second, I believe the new rules will be written to favor the big banks. Why? Because ALL rules are written to favor the big banks. The top 10 banks today control 57% of all banking deposits of the 300 largest U.S. banks. Banks are a monopoly, like the majority of the rest of our economy.
Third, and final, once the new rules are in place, they will have to be interpreted by judges. And increasingly, judges have shown that they are unpredictable.
I want the President, the Congressmen, the regulators, and the judges, to all love our industry. They should. As Trump siad. And I believe they will if we build great shit together. I love the Bitcoin community. We all share a passion for wanting freedom from tyranny. I just think our best chance for that if is we focus more of our limited resources on building great shit.
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This content is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute trading advice. The author of this article may hold assets mentioned in the piece.
