My $1 Million 10-Year Price Target Actually Looks Reasonable

Updated 11/19/23

Per this recent Fox Business appearance by Strike CEO Jack Mallers, the story for Bitcoin keeps getting stronger:

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This piece was written in January, 2021, and last updated in August, 2021.

Amara’s Law — We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

With bitcoin hitting new highs, an ever-present question is … how high can bitcoin go? The tl;dr answer is:

1. Crypto is the biggest thing to happen in the history of humanity
2. Amara’s law suggests we’re underestimating the impact of bitcoin
3. At parity with $1 (100 cents = 100 sats = 1 dSat or dollar SAT ) bitcoin is worth $1M
4. While it’s difficult to comprehend a market capitalization of $18.5 trillion ($1M per Bitcoin), we get there by achieving just 5% of the global market cap of stocks and bonds in 2031, or equaling the value of gold in 2031, or…